YZJ Shipbldg SGD    Last:2.24    -0.01

Yangzijiang

In TA perspective, YZJ certainly looking up.

But because today everybody taking new position in anticipating FOMC on 11 Dec, hence most counters are heading south.

If you are bullish and anticipating Fed to cut 0.5%, then you may want to "Hoot" on this counter.

But if Fed cut rate at only 0.25%, then the sentiment may be different. So high risk, high gain.

 

Mr Yang come down again. Is it time yet??

 

 

Anyone know when it will breakout? Any TA experts on this stock?

 

Still good to enter this counter? look like trading in between 2.15 - 2.16. Not sure what it will be for tomorrow, will there be profit taking and the price drop?

Any Comments?

 

still within consolidation region but seem eager to breakout soon.

 

0056 GMT [Dow Jones] Yangzijiang (BS6.SG) may build on yesterday''s gains
following UBS hike in target price to S$2.80 from S$2.43. Broker reiterates
Buy call, raises earnings forecasts to reflect higher margins on more
deliveries, record-high new vessel prices, efficiency improvements. Says,
"we believe Yangzijiang''s timely capacity additions put it in a good
position to capitalize on this shipbuilding boom." Pre-open quotes indicate
buying interest up to S$2.21; stock closed +5.6% at S$2.09 yesterday. (KIG)

 

Yes, too bad most of the large cap S-share are trading at premium now. COSCO 65X, YZJ 70X, SYNEAR 21X (this one not so bad), YANLORD 95X. Why would the QDII want to pick up the premium S-share when they can buy up H-share or stay with the SSE. If they are smart enough, they should look into the mid to small cap S-share. Counters like China Sun <6X, Sino TechFibre 11X, China Fish 9X, KingBoard<5X and a few which are trading at a bargain now.

 

Thanks Pinnacle

You are alway very helpful...

 

From wikipedia:

Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor, also known as QDII, is a scheme relating to the capital market set up to allow financial institutions to invest in offshore markets such as securities and bonds. Similar to QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor), it is a transitional arrangement which provides limited opportunities for domestic investors to access foreign markets at a stage where a country/territory?s currency is not traded or floated completely freely and where capital is not able to move completely freely in and out of the country.

The impact? If their RMB is flooding our market, we can only be laughing all the way to the banks. The problem is, they are concentrating on H-share at this moment, and only selected few large cap S-share here may be of their interest. But no news that they can coming here yet.

 

Looks like most China counters are dipping.... What is this QDII? What is tihe impact?

 

 

Why is there a large volume sell off today for yangzijiang ? Any news ?

 

China stock is commone to have 50 X PE and in China, most stock are above 100 X PE

the point is if the stock still rise, than it will rise.... and QDII is coming soon (preditc anytime now) to grap some stocks that are over sold

 

btw. for those new to FA: need to watch the reporting currency when reading the annual reports of china companies. most report in RMB. if you do a direct estimate of EPS to S$ share px, you're 'underrating' the PE, NAV. By approx 5x. haha.

for growth stocks tho, it's not uncommon to have sky high PEs of 50-100+.

cheers!

 

hehe, i'm watching kepcorp too. but not yet. kc lags yzj and cosco. in order of movement, it's yzj, cosco, kepcorp.

in terms of FA, kepcorp is the most solid of the three shippies to buy: good div yield, proven track record, and amazingly, low PE ratio, despite its price. plus, temasek backing. haha.

if it's trading one's after, then yzj and cosco are better bets. they sure stage spectacular falls and rebounds.

was actually waiting to catch yzj at 2, but it broke lower bollie again on 21st nov (signifying renewed downtrend), so it isn't quite done downtrending yet for the mid term. however, as with friday's movement, can probably expect a dead cat's bounce. do not seriously think it'll last beyond two days tho. likely kneejerk following H shares in HSI. need to note that on long term MACD, this drop is more severe than the aug 17th one, despite the px dif.

see how lah. at this point in time, i'd rather go for short uptrend on a long uptrend, than try to catch a short up on a long down (ie, chaikin and williams up, but MACD/MA still down--this is the current case for yzj). dead cat's bounces are risky prepositions at best, esp if you can't watch the screen the whole time.

anyhow, the tech pic for next few days shows resistance at 2.08. if breaks below 1.86, be prep to run, definite 'siam ah!' signal if breaks 1.8 and MACD still shows down. likely to be short and swift. good luck!

btw, yzj and yanlord are tandem plays. they move together.

kc: my strike price is 10.5. this will come only if sti tanks to 3,000-3,200 tho, which is my estimate. the alternative scenario is 3,300 support, which then means a modest rebound (no year end big rally), thereafter a long, slow slide into the bear of 08. between the two, i'd personally prefer a sharp tanking first, since that can set the stage for a rebound to 3,700 conservative estimate for the Capricorn effect, before a bear.

fyi only. not inducement to buy or sell. haha. caveat emptor applies as usual.  

 

Thanks elf....just go with the flow. TA shows oversold?

 

elf, thanks, haha, forget  FA just see TA chart on growth stocks , good learning... I sold Kepcorp and did not yet buy back,,, now its charts still bearish but often see it reverse strongly,   may be will buy when drop a bit more.

 

yzj is a growth stock. for growth stocks, their PEs will always be higher, since it factors in what they are able to do (eg, 50%, 100% profit increase p.a). A good gauge will be with the other stocks in its sector. if they all have high PEs, then yzj is presumably fairly rated.

in any case, china stocks, hung jury lah. look at its volatility. don't bother with fundamentals, just go by techs. no value investor would pick this baby on FA. you're better off with kepcorp in that sense.

 

I have made a check on its 2007 earning 1.4310¢ (1Q07), 1.0328¢ (2Q07) and 1.5005¢ (3Q07). If the 4th quarter is to be better and earning turn out to be 1.600¢, this will come up to be just 5.56¢, PE of 35X if trading at $1.96...... Can anyone advise is 35X acceptable since YZJ may have explosive earning for the next 3 years?

 

i am not sure how to understand the PE is attractive. from ShareInvestment  October end data, at that time YZJ closed at 2.66, its NAV=0.225, PE=99.3, div=NA, 1H07 margin 26.5%.

Now that the closing price was 1.96, assuming earning stay the same, PE should adjust to about 73. can anyone help me understand? 

 

Just be careful about always looking at target prices