YZJ Shipbldg SGD    Last:2.25    +0.05

Cash Rich YangZhiJiang and Good Earnings and funda

Hi Cailou.. BB means Big Boy...

No worry.. Like happyse27, me ganna at 2.5plus too.. but always believe yang will make it.. to the mark of S$3 eventually.

 

ｈｉ　ｗｅｌｃｏｍｅ．．．

ｂｂ＝ｂｉｇ　ｂｒｏｔｈｅｒ，　ｔｈｏｓｅ　ｂｉｇｇｅｒ　ｔｈａｎ　ｕｓ　ｉｎ　ｔｅｒｍｓ　ｏｆ　ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌ　ｍｕｓｃｌｅｓ．．．

 

thanks happyse..

may i know what "BB" means? i saw this abbrev appearing very often but couldnt guess what this is.. (err... pai-sei if this appears to be a simple question.. i'm quite a new player in shares trading.. still learning ropes..)....  :-)

 

Ｈ ｉ　caillou ，

　Ｆｅｅｌ　ｔｈａｔ　ｉｔ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄ　ｂｅ　ｔｈｅ　ｗａｙ，　ｇｏｔ　ｉｎ　ａｔ　２．５ｐｌｕｓ（ｈｏｐｅ　ｙｏｕ　ａｒｅ　ｂｅｔｔｅｒ　ｏｆｆ，　ａｎｙｗａｙ　１０－２０％ｄｒｏｐ　ｆｏｒ　ｂｌｕｅ　ｃｈｉｐｓ　ａｒｅ　ｎｏｔ　ｆｅａｒｆｕｆｕｌ　ａｓ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｂｏｕｎｃｅ　ｂａｃｋ　ｅｖｅｎ　ｆａｓｔｅｒ）．　３　ｄｏｌｌａｒｓ　ａｔ　ｙｅａｒ　ｅｎｄ　ｏｒ　ｍｏｒｅ　ｉｓ　ｈｉｇｈ　ｐｏｓｓｉｂｌｅ．　

　　Ｊｕｓｔ　ｄｏｎ＇ｔ　ｌｉｋｅ　ｔｈｏｓｅ　ＢＢｓ　ｐｌａｙｉｎｇ　ｕｓ．．．　Ｂｕｔ　ｔｈｉｎｋ　ｔｈｅｙ　ａｌｓｏ　ｂｏ　ｐｉａｎ　ａｓ　ｇｏｔ　ｔａｒｇｅｔ　ｔｏ　ｍｅｅｔ（ｇｏｏｄ　ｉｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔ　ｈｏｕｓｅ　ｄｏｅｓ　ｎｏｔ　ｄｏ　ｔｈａｔ，　ｔｈｅ　ＢＢｓ　ｈａｖｅ　ｔｏ　ｓｔｕｄｙ　ｍｏｒｅ　Ｉ　ｆｅｅｌ，　ｔｈｅｙ　ｗｏｕｌｄ　ｇｅｔ　ｂｕｒｎｔ　ｓｏｍｅ　ｄａｙｓ　ｄｕｅ　ｔｏ　ｔｈｅｙ　ａｒｅ　ｊｕｓｔ　ｗｈａｌｅｓ　ｏｆ　ｔｈｅ　ｏｃｅａｎｓ，　ｔｈｅ　ｓｍａｌｌｅｒｓ　ｆｉｓｈｅｓ　ｏｒ　ｔｉｄａｌ　ｗａｖｅｓ　ｃａｎ　ｅａｔ　ｔｈｅｍ）．　

　　Ｂｕｔ　ｗｈｏ　ｉｎ　ｔｈｅ　ｒｉｇｈｔ　ｆｒａｍｅ　ｏｆ　ｍｉｎｄ　ｄｏｎ＇ｔ　ｗａｎｔ　ｔｏ　ｂｕｙ　ｗｈｅｎ　ｎｅｘｔ　ｙｅａｒ　ｔｈｅｙ　ａｒｅ　ｌｉｓｔｅｄ　ｉｎ　ｔｏｐ　３０　ｂｌｕｅ　ｃｈｉｐｓ　ｃａｔｅｇｏｒｙ．　Ｔｈｅ　ｍａｒｋｅｔ　ｃａｐ．　ｉｓ　ｂｉｇ　ａｌｓｏ．　Ｔｈｅｙ　ａｒｅ　ｃａｓｈ　ｒｉｃｈ　ｒｉｃｈ　ｒｉｃｈ．．．

　Ｄｏ　ｓｏｍｅ　ｖｉｅｗｉｎｇｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｐａｓｔ　２　ｙｅａｒｓ　ｇｒａｐｈｓ　ａｎｄ　ｐａｓｔ　ｔｒｅｎｄｓ，　ａｎｄ　ｐｌｕｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｆｕｎｄａｍｅｎｔａｌｓ，　ｙｏｕ　ｗｏｕｌｄ　ｆｉｎｄ　ｔｈａｔ　Ｐｉｎｋ　Ｄｉａｍｏｎｄ　ｉｓ　ｔｈｅｒｅ．　Ｉｔ　ｉｓ　ｎｏｔ　ｅｖｅｎ　ｈａｌｆ　ｏｆ　Ｃｏｓｃｏ＇ｓ　ｓｔｏｃｋ　ｐｒｉｃｅ，　ｂａｓｅｄ　ｏｎ　ｈｏｗ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｂｏｕｎｃｅｄ　ｂａｃｋ　ｓｔｒｏｎｇｅｒ．

 

thanks heppyse.... your reply certainly ease the tension in me.. :)

 

Ｔｈｉｎｋ　ｍａｙｂｅ　ｋｅｙ　ｉｎ　ｏｕｔ　ｏｆ　ｆｅａｒ．．．

Ｔｈｅ　ｕｓｕａｌ　ｆａｍｏｕｓ　ｓａｙｉｎｇ　：

Ｂｅ　ｇｒｅｅｄｙ　ｗｈｅｎ　ｏｔｈｅｒｓ　ａｒｅ　ｆｅａｒｆｕｌ．　Ｂｅ　ｆｅａｒｆｕｌ　ｗｈｅｎ　ｏｔｈｅｒｓ　ａｒｅ　ｇｒｅｅｄｙ．

Ａｎｙｗａｙ，　ｉｆ　ｍｉｄ　ｔｏ　ｌｏｎｇ　ｔｅｒｍ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄ　ｂｅ　ｆｉｎｅ．　Ｙａｎｇ　Ｚｈｉ　Ｊｉａｎｇ　ｉｓ　ｏｎｅ　ｏｆ　ｖｅｒｙ　ｆｅｗ　ｔｏｐ　３０　ｂｌｕｅ　ｃｈｉｐｓ　ｌｅｆｔ　ｔｈａｔ　ｉｓ　ｕｎｄｅｒｖａｌｕｅｄ．　

Ｂｕｙ　ＡＨ！！！！！！

 

Dear all...i do not understand why YZJ is dropping with all the good reports on its book orders... perhaps someone can enlighten me..?  :) thanks....

 

Not a bad thing to sell one lot at 228. It's a sign of closing gap, and prepare for reversal. Lets hope so...

 

Who go and sell the ONE lot at 2.28!!!!!

Do you know how much damage you have done?????

OOPhs, maybe the BB trying to zhuo-pai??

 

its dipping.....

 

Repost here for easy ref:

24-Oct-2007 20:37	Yangzijiang   /   One of China's largest shipyard
x 0 x 0	38.2% retracement will be at $2.30 may be a good one to accumulate. 61.8% retracement to $2.10 will be excellent catch!

 

watching this baby too. :) not yet tho, dumping not done yet. does anyone know when its Q results are out?

 

I am targeting YZJ to close price gap at 263 (29 Oct) this week. Stochastic hooking up. RSI in near oversold zone. Hope it will not disappoint me.

 

Thanks！！Cheong Ah... BB BEWARE!!!　：）

 

SHOULD TURN AROUND ANYTIME NOW SINCE YZJ HAD BEEN RED ON CHART FOR SO MANY DAYS ALREADY. WATCH THIS SPACE.

 

I AM READY TO BUY MORE ANYTIME TO ADD ON TO MY PREVIOUS PURCHASE OF 2.33

 

Resistance at 2.25 to 2.3plus, based on the forex exchange loss of less than 10%( in fact USD might drop to about 1.4 till next year only.. Dropped from 2.66, in fact too low now...

Accumulate, accumulate, accumulate.

BBs who does short, kindly beware of global market forces..., be it how strong your team is...

 

Hi All,

  Anyway, the USD is dropping to about from 1.5 to about 1.4 maybe till next year end(hopefully better USA president comes without WAR), the impact is only 5% to at most 10%. Besides there are good hedging and not all transactions in USD.

  But the Turnover this year Forecast is 4,150.2Million and net profit is 679.4, meaning the margin is 16%. give it worst case 10%, well enough to cover the impact. it is still well enough to cover the risk... Besides China is booming, not ready to slow down for these few years...

   Moreover the Return on Equity is well above 30%. in fact 50%

  Any comments, please feel free to air the view.

 

 

Buy S$2.66 STI : 3,771.55
Yangzijiang
 
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 3.0
Steeling up for new orders
Reason for Report : Plant visit Story: Management allayed investors! concern over rising steel
Potential Catalyst: Earnings execution
prices and the strengthening RMB during our visit to their new
 
yard in Jingjiang city, Jiangsu province.
ANALYST
Janice Chua +65 6398 7954 Point: We continue to like YZJ as a key beneficiary of the wave
janicechua@dbsvickers.com
 
of shipbuilding orders flowing to China, which is gaining market
Ho Pei Hwa +65 6398 7968
share from Korean and Japanese shipyards. As the largest private
peihwa@dbsvickers.com
containership builder in China and among the top ten globally for
containerships, we believe YZJ is well positioned to benefit from
FORECASTS AND VALUATION
the strong demand for bulk carriers and containerships.
2005A 2006A2007F 2008F
FY Dec (RMB m)  Relevance: Backed by a record orderbook of RMB35.8bn (or
Turnover 1,532.6 2,325.04,150.2 7,602.4
EBITDA 280.8 481.0736.8 1,304.8
USD4.8bn), representing 9x its FY07 revenue, this underpins
Pre-tax Profit 299.2 518.9806.4 1,413.0
earnings visibility till FY10. Our TP of S$3.04 is based on a target PE
Net Profit 283.5 454.3679.4 1,126.9
of 28x on FY09 earnings for Yangzijiang, translating into an
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 283.5 454.3679.4 1,126.9
undemanding PEG of 0.6x on Yangzijiang!ˉs three-year EPS CAGR
EPS (S cts) 2.1 3.34.0 6.6
EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 2.1 3.34.0 6.6
of 58%.
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 82 6020 66
 
Diluted EPS (S cts) 2.1 3.34.0 6.6
Completion of new yard ahead of schedule. To tap on the current robust
Net DPS (S cts) 0.1 3.10.8 1.3
demand, Yangzijiang (!°YZJ) accelerated the completion of its new yard.
BVPer Share (S cts) 5.1 1.522.3 28.1
 
It has been up and running since Sept!ˉ07, four months ahead of schedule.
PE (X) 127.3 79.466.4 40.1
The new yard is expected to add capacity of 20 vessels a year to the
PE Pre Ex. (X) 127.3 79.466.4 40.1
group, more than double the old yard!ˉ output, bringing YZJ!ˉs total yearly
P/Cash Flow (X) 121.3 76.463.4 37.5
EV/EBITDA (X) 128.9 75.056.6 30.8
capacity to 36 vessels. More interestingly, this also marked a significant
Net Div Yield (%) 0.0 1.20.3 0.5
milestone for YZJ, being able to scale up the value chain to build larger
P/Book Value (X) 52.4 171.711.9 9.5
vessels: containerships up to 6000TEU and bulk carriers of up to 300,000
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 CASHCASH CASH
DWT, from <100,000 DWT at the old yard. 
ROAE (%) 51.2 101.234.1 26.4
80% of its USD exposure is hedged. Given more than 80% of its cost is
SHARE PRICE CHART
denominated in RMB while receipts are all in USD, a 1% appreciation in
S$
the Chinese currency could reduce its net earnings by 4.3%, without
3.00
hedging. Realising a weakening USD could badly hit its margins, YZJ has
2.50
adopted a hedging policy to manage 80% of its exposure through: (I)
forward contract: to lock in the exchange rate for USD against RMB; and
2.00
(II) natural hedge: by increasing the use of imported material to 30% of
1.50
total purchase, from 20% previously. Hence, we believe the Group would
1.00
be rather resilient to the fluctuations in currency.
Apr-07Jun-07Sep-07
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding 100-Day MA
 
Locking in steel prices... As steel cost accounts for about 20% of vessels
 
value, a 1% rise in steel prices could lead to a 0.9% fall in net earnings. In
AT A GLANCE
view of the rising steel prices in China, YZJ has implemented a strategy to
Issued Capital (m shrs) 3,301
lock in steel prices when signing new contracts. We believe this would
8,772 / 6,026
Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m)
effectively mitigate the impact of rising steel cost.
Major Shareholders