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AWAKENING OF BEAR

Sentiments driven market.......constant price swings.....the atmosphere is very smoky and not clear, full of mini-ups and downs....."In the short run, the stocks market is a voting machine, in the long run, the stocks market is a weighing machine." Buy in and hang on to undervalued stocks of good companies.....in one or two years time, no one will remember this dull bear period anymore....stocks market will be in a state of euphoria trading at high prices......Time will reward the patient and rational investors who only buy at low undervalued prices and only sell at overvalued high prices........

 

anticipation n sentiments.

 

17/03, market down, sold some shares on 18/03.

25/03, market down, sold some shares.

27/03, market down, sold some shares on 30/03.

7/04, market down, sold some shares on 8/04.

everytime after selling, the prices went higher. Econ is quite bad, howcome share prices keep going up ?

 

like tis, strong bear got chance.

 

U.S. Stocks Decline as Chevron, Boeing Predict Lower Profit



By Lynn Thomasson

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower following its best five-week gain since the Great Depression, as Chevron Corp. and Boeing Co. predicted lower earnings and Genworth Financial Inc. failed to qualify for government bailout funds.

Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, retreated 2.6 percent. Boeing, the nation’s biggest commercial-plane maker, lost 6.5 percent. Genworth, which sells life insurance and mortgage coverage, plunged 28 percent as the Treasury rejected its application to become a savings and loan holding company. General Motors Corp. tumbled 14 percent on a New York Times report that federal officials have ordered the company to prepare for bankruptcy.

“Buying stocks is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red,” said Laszlo Birinyi, president of Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc., in a Bloomberg Television interview. “You might make it, but the odds are not with you.”

The S&P 500 slid 1 percent to 847.83 at 9:34 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 79.89, or 1 percent, to 8,003.49. Markets in Europe were closed, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent.

Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and General Electric Co. are among more than 30 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results this week. Profits probably fell for a seventh-straight quarter in the January-to- March period, the longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression.

Asian Stocks Advance

Asian stocks climbed for a third day as Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso doubled stimulus spending and Chinese lending jumped by a record. Treasuries rose, following three weeks of losses. The yen fell against all of the other major currencies on speculation the global financial crisis is easing.

Chevron lost 2.6 percent to $67.44. Profit for the first quarter was less than the fourth quarter of 2008, when Chevron had net income of $4.9 billion, the company said in a statement April 9. The price Chevron received for U.S. crude slumped 63 percent during the quarter to $33.37 a barrel, the company said.

Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest oil producer, retreated 1.9 percent to $68.54.

Boeing dropped 6.5 percent $36.60. The company said it will cut production of its most profitable model next year, reducing earnings starting with the first quarter of 2009, as the global recession hurts business at airlines and cargo carriers.

Genworth Financial tumbled 28 percent to $1.97. The company was rejected from becoming a savings and loan after regulators approved plans from competing life insurers including Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. to gain status as lenders, a requirement for funds from the TARP program.

GM Concern

GM fell 14 percent to $1.75. The Treasury Department asked the automaker to get ready for a bankruptcy filing by June 1, the New York Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the plans. The automaker contends it could still reorganize outside court, the newspaper said.

The S&P 500 surged 27 percent from a 12-year low reached on March 9 through last week as investors speculated that the $12.8 trillion pledged by the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush and the Federal Reserve to rescue the financial system will revive corporate profits.

Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan said last month they made money at the start of 2009, while Wells Fargo & Co. posted higher-than-estimated earnings last week and President Obama said the economy is “starting to see progress” toward recovery.

Still, earnings at S&P 500 companies probably fell 38 percent on average in the first quarter, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profits may drop 31 percent in the second quarter and 18 percent in the next before gaining 74 percent in the last three months of the year, analysts predict

 

strong bear must hv  plenty sleep n red bull, here also want strong bear but hv 2 wait.

 

bear still very weak... i wan strong bear..

bola_no1      ( Date: 13-Apr-2009 21:46) Posted: U hope bear, it will bull, and vice versa.

 

waiting 4 bearish again 2 buy.

 

U hope bear, it will bull, and vice versa.

 

im opening my hand to welcome bear now.. bear please come back

 

Sentiments rule that threw out any logic and slowly but surely, logic prevails......ha ha

applies for both bull and bear.....

 

Yah, u are right to say tat "the stock market had shown that it always goes against people's normal expectations... " and now the pple's normal expectation is a bull run as it has been bull for 5 straight weeks, so u should be smart enuf to know wat tat statement imply.

Dun get caught off-guard by the BIG BAD BEAR, this is probably a bear rally.

Even if it is not a bear rally, I would rather wait for some meaningful corrections than to get emotions high & chase after stocks.

The higher it goes, the harder & more painful the fall

C u at the correction or bottom very soon.

Akan Datang.

iPunter      ( Date: 11-Apr-2009 04:27) Posted: The stock market had shown that it always goes against people's normal expectations...

 

But the contrarian thinks the opposite, tats why they are called contrarian, so if more & more pple declare tat the bull is dead, it could be cunning & sly BIG BAD BEAR, probably it is still alive & kicking, pretending to be dead to maul those gullible who are caught off-guard.

So better to exit a bit earlier b4 the party catch fire & everyone dashing for the exit & get yourself peng kang beyond recognition (reminds me of the sad Thailand incident).

So u are forewarned!!!

freeme      ( Date: 11-Apr-2009 10:25) Posted: Yeah.. when u expect it to correct, it cheong higher, when everyone think its over, it comes back to hunt u.. wait awhile more, now most ppl are optimistic liao that bottom is over.. n soon everything starts to jump in, it turns against all.. iPunter      ( Date: 11-Apr-2009 04:27) Posted: The stock market had shown that it always goes against people's normal expectations...

 

U have been forewarned, dun chase after stocks or u will get burnt, the writings are all over the wall.

From Lim & Tan Securities:

z
After George Soros and Marc Faber’s warning
that the recent market rally is a bear market rally
and a correction is imminent, Aberdeen’s Chief
Investment Officer and MD in Asia also said that he
thinks the recent bear market rally is coming to an
end as companies start to report bad results.

z
Prof Roubini who became famous by correctly
predicting the current credit crisis said in an
interview with Reuters that there’s still more bad
news ahead for the US economy and the bear
market for stocks is not over yet. He said that
macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are
going to be worse than expected and that is why
he believes that this is still a bear market rally.

z
Meredith Whitney who became famous by being
the earliest to warn about the current banking crisis
has forecast yet another rough year for banks and
that these companies still have ways to go as they
continue to shed toxic assets and raise capital.

z
According to British newspaper “The Times”, the
IMF is expected to increase their toxic asset loss
forecast by financial institutions from US$3.1trn to
US$4trn, even surpassing Prof Roubini’s US$3.6trn
estimate.

 

Yeah.. when u expect it to correct, it cheong higher, when everyone think its over, it comes back to hunt u.. wait awhile more, now most ppl are optimistic liao that bottom is over.. n soon everything starts to jump in, it turns against all..

iPunter      ( Date: 11-Apr-2009 04:27) Posted: The stock market had shown that it always goes against people's normal expectations...

 

The stock market had shown that it always goes against people's normal expectations...

 

kekeke.......old west bear still drowsy however East cow is tranforming into a bull wth wing.................look to e East nw............bullish since early '05 til nw n still growing as we chit chat..............................................................................................................................................

 

not vested n  thus waiting 4 very very bear to buy for >5 yrs.

 

Ggrrrrrhhrr!!!!!

Return of the BIG BAD BEAR!!!

Grrrrrhrrr!!!

Be careful, dun chase after stocks.

Markets are grossly overbought & ripe for corrections anytime.

All it takes is a loss of momentum, the music to stop the musical chair,  or an adverse news to trigger a knee-jerk correction & u end up holding "hot potatoes".

Read today's Straits Times, pg D16 (10/4/09 Fri), I quote:

"Despite yesterday's renewed upswing, analysts said the upward momentum in Asian mkts would be hard to sustain, as investors were still troubled by economic concerns & fears about corporate earnings.

Technical indicators revealed tat Asian mkts were "showing signs of peaking this week"according to a CIMB Research report released yesterday.

It noted: "Volatility is expected to remain the order of the day and we would not be surprised if Asian markets tried to challenge their highs before correcting"

 

Return of Stock Bulls Signals Time to Sell: Technical Analysis