
Hmmm...that's not what someone else said.
"Singapore is short of REAL talent, that is why we need to import more foreigners to lead us".
PM Lee has said that Singapore would be OK to have two local banks. Singapore is just a small country with great man.
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--United Overseas Bank Ltd. (U11.SG) said Wednesday that its fourth-quarter net profit fell 5.7% on higher impairment charges.
Net profit for the period ended Dec. 31 was S$506 million, or S$1.31 a share, down from S$537 million, or S$1.38 a share, a year earlier.
The bank said impairment charges for the quarter almost doubled to S$128 million. The charges included provisions related to UOB''s collateralized-debt-obligation portfolio of not more than S$61 million.
The CDO portfolio stood at S$388 million as of Sept. 30. The company didn''t provide a year-end figure.
The net-profit result was lower than the average estimate of S$510 million by analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires. The estimate included CDO-related losses of up to about S$56 million.
Net interest income in the fourth quarter was S$743 million, up 5.9% from S$702 million a year earlier and higher than the S$730 million expected by analysts. The bank said net lending increased 20.5% to S$92.7 billion as of Dec. 31.
Singapore''s second-largest bank by market capitalization said the net interest margin was 1.94% for the quarter, down from 1.99% a year ago, but up slightly from 1.93% in the third quarter.
Singapore banks posted robust loan growth last year amid booming construction and property markets. Analysts have said, however, lending won''t be as robust in 2008 given the global credit turmoil.
"The net interest margin number for UOB was disappointing," said Kim Eng analyst Pauline Lee.
"It is the lowest compared with Singapore''s two other local banks, and might be showing some sign of structure weakness," she added.
In the statement, UOB Chief Executive Wee Ee Cheong said 2008 "looks set to be a challenging year."
Non-interest income was S$532 million, up 2.9% from last year''s S$517 million, and higher than the S$324 million estimated by analysts.
UOB said higher fee and commission income helped offset lower trading and investment income from higher mark-to-market losses on its investment portfolio.
The bank posted a 47% drop in net gains from trading activities to S$25 million for the quarter. It also recorded a S$29 million loss from the fair value of financial instruments, swinging from a gain of S$23 million a year earlier.
UOB declared total dividends for the year of 73.7 Singapore cents, down from 81.2 cents a year earlier.
-By Patricia Kowsmann, Dow Jones Newswires; 65 6415 4157; patricia.kowsmann@dowjones.com
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SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - United Overseas Bank, Singapore's second largest bank, said Wednesday its net profit fell 17.9 percent to 2.11 billion Singapore dollars in 2007, in the absence of exceptional gains that inflated earnings in 2006
The bank booked 689 million dollars in exceptional gains from the divestment of Overseas Union Enterprises and Hotel Negara in 2006. Excluding those gains, the 2007 net profit would have been up 12.1 percent compared to the previous year The net profit was within the 1.94-2.22 billion dollar range forecast by analysts polled by Thomson Financial The bank said its core business was bolstered by the city-state's robust economic growth Net interest income rose 10 percent to 2.98 billion dollars last year, supported by robust loan growth and higher net interest margins, which grew to 2.04 percent from 1.99 percent Non-interest income grew 25 percent to 1.89 billion dollars, boosted by higher fee and commission income and contributions from fund management The growth was, however, tempered by a 66 percent rise in asset impairment charges to 300 million dollars, mainly due to provisions for its collateralized debt obligations and long-term investments The bank recognized 128 million dollars of the provisions in the fourth quarter, dragging the fourth-quarter net profit 5.7 percent lower to 506 million dollars "Despite the global market volatilities, we are pleased that the group has recorded quality broad-based growth, with core business remaining strong," said Wee Ee Cheong, deputy chairman and CEO of UOB The operating environment in 2008 looks challenging but Wee said he is confident that the UOB's strong balance sheet will help it seize opportunities and attain long-term growth "The group's capital position remained strong, with a tier-one capital adequacy ratio at 10.0 percent and total capital adequacy ratio at 14.5 percent, both well above the minimum of 6 percent and 10 percent, respectively, required by the Monetary Authority of Singapore," UOB said The bank's non-performing loans fell 45.8 percent to 1.72 billion dollars last year, while customer deposits grew 11.9 percent to 106.97 billion dollars At the midday break, UOB was up 18 cents or 1.0 percent at 19.02 dollars with 2.3 million shares traded (1 US dollar = 1.40 Singapore dollars) jonathan.burgos@thomson.com MMMM |
SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank has raised its rating on shares of United Overseas Bank
"We believe the current volatility in the share market could see investors pay a premium for companies such as UOB that have an established track record," said Deutsche Bank in a client note.
Deutsche Bank maintained UOB's price target of S$23.20.
CITI - Buy: 3Q07 Mgmt Briefing ? Mortgage Outlook Still Strong
Buy/Low Risk 1L
Price (30 Oct 07) S$21.50
Target price S$24.00
Expected share price return 11.6%
Expected dividend yield 2.9%
Expected total return 14.5%
Market Cap S$32,761M
US$22,553M
Maintain forecasts, target S$24 ? UOB 9M07 profit S$1,603m was 74% of FY07 estimates but 3Q profit S$501m (-14%qoq) was disappointing. We maintain forecasts as mgmt guided that much of the mark-to-market losses in 3Q were likely one-off and underlying mortgage growth is firm, suggesting a better core performance in 4Q. Margins are now our key 2008E forecast risk.
Margins down 11bps qoq to 193bps ? Mgmt cited a combination of translation impacts from regional businesses in SGD terms (underlying loan spreads in source currencies being relatively stable) and the placement of excess funds in shorter maturity paper and hence lower yielding assets.
CDO charge S$20m + S$46m MTM to equity reserves ? With past provisions of S$34m, about S$100m cumulatively has been taken against CDO exposures. One-third of these charges relate to the S$90m ABS (sub prime) CDO book. There have been no defaults in any of the S$388m CDO holdings. The ABCP vehicle is being wound up and should be completed by year end.
Mortgage growth +21% yoy ? UOB continued to be ahead of peers in mortgage growth. Mgmt felt that while removal of deferred payment schemes may impact near-term sentiment, underlying fundamentals and demand remained strong. UOB might see less market share gains as the mass market picks up, but its focus mid-affluent private segment demand remains robust.
Goldman Sachs - Weak 3Q07 rescued by write-backs; earnings, TP lowered, Neutral
What's changed
UOB?s 3Q07 net profit of S$501mn (-14% qoq, +8% yoy) is 6% above our forecast of S$471mn on lower-than-expected CDO-related provisions of S$20mn (and S$46mn against equity directly) vs. our forecast of S$89mn. Underlying earnings momentum is weaker than our already cautious expectations: (1) NIM -11bp qoq to 1.9%, mainly due to adverse FX movement, shortened duration of its treasury book, and lower loan yield (-38bp qoq to 5.46%); (2) a worse-than-expected hit to treasury income (-72% qoq, -65% yoy); (3) sequential decline (-3% qoq) in fee income across the board. Key positives: Loan growth of 3% qoq and 14% yoy (though lower than DBS?s 6%/23%), very low credit cost of S$4mn or 2bp of avg loans due to substantial write-backs and improvement in asset quality.
Implications
We recommend investors trim exposure to UOB in the short term, as we expect near-term share price pressure from (1) consensus earnings downgrade ? we lowered our already below-consensus FY07E/08E net profit forecasts by 0.2%/5%, which are now 3%/9% below consensus on (i) protracted NIM contraction (-3bp yoy in 08E and flat in 09E) with sustained margin pressure in its regional op, flat yield curve, and strengthening SGD (GS economists expect SGD to strengthen 5% against major regional currencies in 08E), (ii) vulnerability to capital mkt weakness, and (iii) sustained cost pressure; (2) Govt?s anti-speculative property measure(s) and UOB mgmt?s increasingly cautious stance on Singapore property prices could crimp its 08E loan growth.
Valuation
We lowered our 12-month target price by 7% to S$21 on 1.8X revised 08E P/B with 14.7X revised 08E P/E.
Key risks
Upside risks ? NIM recovery, better cost controls. Downside risks ? US stagflation, further property regulatory tightening, regional political risks.
KIM ENG - Making Decent Progress
♦ Core operations remained firm
UOB posted 3Q07 net profit of S$501m (+8.2% Y/Y, -14.4% Q/Q), in line with the market expectation of S$506m. The weaker sequential earnings weredue to lower net interest income and mark-to-market losses. Despite a 3.4% fall in operating expenses due to staff costs, the expense ratio spikedfrom 38.9% to 44%. Earnings from overseas strengthened (+11% Q/Q, +2.3% Y/Y) led by Southeast Asia. Asset quality remained strong as NPL ratio improved from 2.8% to 2.3%. Impairment charges were much lower at S$4m in 3Q07 compared to S$81m in 2Q07.
♦ Net interest income slipped sequentially
Net interest income (NII) grew 4.4% Y/Y but fell 6.2% Q/Q. Despite decent gross loans growth (+3% Q/Q, +14.3% Y/Y) which reflected broad-based improvement and consistent strength in housing loans (+5.2% Q/Q, +20.6% Y/Y), NIIin 3Q07 was eroded by a 11bps decline in NIM and foreign exchange translation. The forex translation, which was a result of the weakening of regionalcurrencies against the Singapore Dollar, contributed to 50% of the decline in NIM, whilethe other part was due to shifting of funds to shorter-term investments.
♦ Clouded by exceptional marked-to-market losses
Fee-based income dipped 3% from 2Q07, reflecting lower contributions from fund management, investment and trade-related income. Trading and other income were significantly lower (S$44m in 3Q07 versus S$154m in 2Q07) as a result of marked-to-market losses due to the widening of credit spreads triggered by the US subprime crisis. The group highlighted that the quality of the investment debt portfolio remains sound as reflected by its high weighted average rating. Withregards to CDOs, the group provided another S$20m in specific provision in 3Q07. The group indicated concerns aboutABS CDOs which amounted to S$90m of its total S$388m exposure to CDOs. The remaining are in corporate CDOs of which S$101m will mature by March 2008, and they expect to recover most of it.
♦ Still upbeat on UOB
We trimmed our earnings forecast for FY07 by 4% to factor in lower NIM and trading income. UOB continues to deliver industry-leading housingloans growth due to its strong niche in the high-end property segment in Singapore. Moreover,its strengthening network and infrastructure in Southeast Asia will help to sustainearnings and asset growth. The group expects NIM to improve progressively if there is no sharp weakening of regional currencies. Strategic investmentsin Southern Bank of Vietnam (10% stake) and UOB Buana (61% stake)will be important future growth engines. The group?smarket leadership in credit cards and SME lending franchise also augur well for sustainable growth.
♦ Core franchise intact
UOB currently trades at 1.8x FY07 PBV, in line with the sector average. Our target price remains at S$23.80, pegged at 1.9x FY08 PBV (on a regional blended basis). We have revised up our FY07 NAV to factor in only the marked-to marketlosses from ABS CDOs instead of its total CDO exposure. Maintain BUY.
If Fed rate is cut, every market will cheong, at least for the next few days.
If rate is not cut, then god bless every market.
DBS Vickers - Healthy growth but mitigated by NIM squeeze Buy S$21.50; Price Target : 12-month S$ 27.50
Story: UOBs 3Q07 results were below our expectations purely due to larger than expected NIM squeeze during the quarter. Separately, additional provisions of S$20m were made during the quarter for its CDO investments, while another S$46m was made for mark-to-market losses against reserves.
Point: NIM was hit due to lower interbank rates coupled with SGD appreciation, causing forex translation losses. We note that there was no change to UOBs CDO position as compared to the last quarter. Total CDO investments by the Group remain at S$388m, of which S$90m are in ABS CDOs.
The remaining S$298m are in Corporate CDOs, of which S$101m are due to mature by March 2008.
Relevance: Maintain Buy with target price unchanged at S$27.50. Despite a lower NIM for the quarter, we note that NIM for 9M07 was 2.05%, which is marginally below our full year estimate of 2.08%. We believe that UOB would be able to weather out further NIM squeeze with stronger growth in low cost deposits. We understand that there could be upside to NIM in 4Q07 depending on the management of loans and deposits.
If they don't cut, the market is going to be very bloody.
CIMB - UOB (S$21.50) - 3QFY07 results - Poor results on weak NII & trading
Below expectations. 3Q07 net profit (S$501m) was 12% below our expectations (S$572m) and consensus (S$569m). CDO-related losses (S$20m) were not huge but core earnings trend was surprisingly weak. Margins in particular, showed a significant contraction while loan growth momentum slowed. Trading income was unexpectedly low. 3Q ROE dipped to a disappointing 11.9% (2Q: 13.9%).
Interest income was 6% lower qoq. Loan growth (+3.3% qoq) was decent, but not spectacular. Mortgage still drove loans though slower regional loans (Thailand and Indonesia) plus some slowdown in OECD loans (Singapore ACU loans) meant a deceleration in loan growth momentum. Loan growth was far from being the main disappointment, margins was the culprit. NIMs surprisingly contracted 11bps, partly from exchange translation impact (weaker regional currencies vs. S$) and partly from a flight to safety as UOB migrated to shorter-term investments to seek shelter from volatile market conditions. We portray the impact in Figure 1. UOB guides that they have since lengthened the duration of their portfolio though this is done on a measured way as they are still cautious. Margin pressures are expected to remain in Thailand and Indonesia though the lending environment is healthier in Singapore.
Non interest income dragged down by poor trading quarter. Non-interest income declined 27% qoq. Fees were relatively unaffected in 3Q but trading income did poorly as losses from derivative hedges more than offset portfolio gains. Management guides that 4Q trading income should recover from 3Q lows.
Costs were well controlled, CDO impact low. Costs (-3% qoq) were capped in relatively poor quarter but weak topline pushed up the cost ratio to 44% (2Q:39%). CDO charges were only S$20m, more than made up for by Singapore SP write-backs. NPL ratio declined to 2.3% (2Q: 4.6%), reflecting a benign environment.
Cut FY07-09 EPS by 1-3%. We trim our EPS on lower margin assumptions.
Maintain Neutral rating and S$22.40 target price. We roll forward to an end CY08 target price. Our target P/BV, based on Gordon Growth (ROE 13.2%, COE 8.9%, growth 4.2%) is brought down from 2.0x to 1.9x. Applying our valuation target onto our FY08 BV leaves our S$22.40 target price unchanged. We see UOB?s caution reflected in 3Q results but that same prudence has dragged down short-term core earnings somewhat, producing a report card that will not trigger outperformance.
Phillip Securities
Shares 1523.7m
Market Cap. S$32.8b
Trailing P/NAV 1.98x
Forward 2007 P/NAV 1.84x
PER 16.6x
52-week Price Range 17.50-24.20
52-week P/NAV
Range 1.61x-2.23x
Listing Bourse SGXMainboard
Major Shareholders
Wee Investments 7.28%;
Wah Hin & Co, 5.3%
Net earnings was down by 14.3% to S$501m (+8.2% yoy, -14.3% qoq, 2Q07: S$585m), due to lower interest income and lower trading and investment income resulted from MTM losses from widening credit spreads.
Net interest income rose to S$714m (+4.4% yoy, -6.2% qoq, 2Q07: S$761m) driven by higher loans volume but partially offset by lower contributions from money market activities. Interest margins dipped to 1.93% (3Q06: 1.97%, 2Q07: 2.04%) as the bank shifts its investment to shorter term assets. Non-interest income decreased to S$393m (+16.6% yoy, -26.7% qoq, 2Q07: S$536m) over the quarter due to lower trading and investment income, which was a result of MTM losses due to widening credits spreads triggered by the US sub-prime crisis.
Expenses decreased to S$487m (+14.8% yoy, -3.4% qoq, 2Q07: S$504m) due to lower provision for bonuses. Cost to income ratio declined to 44.0% (3Q06: 41.6%, 2Q07: 38.9%) ROE and ROA decreased to 11.9% (3Q06: 12.1%, 2Q07: 13.9%) and 1.18% (3Q06: 1.18%, 2Q07: 1.38%) this quarter respectively. Diluted EPS excluding onetime items, dipped to S$1.29 (3Q06: S$1.18, 2Q07: S$1.50) while net book value declined to S$10.84 (3Q06: S$9.89, 2Q07: S$10.95) as well.
This quarter?s lackluster results had caused us to adjust our earnings downwards to S$2.2b and S$2.5b for 2007 and 2008 respectively. Net interest income slid for two consecutive quarters made us realize that interest income and interest margins could have peaked in the first quarter. Thus, we are setting UOB?s target price to S$23.30, 1.87x FY08 NAV based on our Gordon growth model. Maintain Hold.
United Overseas Bank
Loans grew at a double-digit pace fuelled by a property and construction boom, but the bank said it suffered from a lower contribution from interbank money market trading, a stronger Singapore dollar and mark-to-market losses on debt securities.
"The negative impact should reverse once the market regains confidence or when the debt securities mature," it said.
The bank reported net profit of S$501 million ($345.3 million) for the July-September period, up from S$463 million a year ago, but lower than a mean forecast of S$516 million by five analysts polled by Reuters Estimates.
"The market is undergoing a volatile period, but the impact of the credit volatility on our core business is minimal," Chief Executive Wee Ee Cheong said in a statement.
"We will ride out this uncertain period and continue to focus on building our core business," he said.
Investor hopes for a better result were raised last week after DBS Group Holdings
"We remain positive on Singapore banks, given the prospects for loan growth, generally stable margins, exposure to regional economies, and reasonable valuations," said Sanjay Jain, a banking analyst at Credit Suisse, in a client note on Monday ahead of the result.
"Key risk is a sharp slowdown or a recession in the United States." UOB, which had a smaller direct exposure to risky debt compared to DBS, made provisions for its exposure to collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) in the second quarter and July.
MARK-TO-MARKET LOSSES The bank announced more mark-to-market losses in the third quarter. It made another S$20 million worth of provisions against its CDO investments of S$388 million. In addition it made another S$46 million of mark-to-market provision against its reserves.
UOB's lending grew 15.6 percent, at a slower pace than DBS, which reported 23 percent loan growth in third quarter from a year earlier.
UOB's net interest income rose 4.4 percent to S$714 million, while non-interest income, which includes commissions and fees, grew 16.5 percent.
An analyst at an investment bank said the net interest income showed a "disappointing" increase compared to DBS, which saw a 15 percent jump in net interest income in the third quarter.
UOB, controlled by its chairman Wee Cho Yaw and his family, is considered the leader in the loan market for small and medium businesses and benefited from Singapore's strong economic growth.
UOB shares have risen faster than its rivals in the last quarter when banks were hit by concerns over CDO exposure.
UOB rose 0.5 percent in the third quarter, compared to DBS which fell 5.3 percent, while OCBC dropped 2.7 percent.
Before the latest result, UOB had been expected to report net profit of S$2.15 billion for the full-year ending December, down almost 18 percent from S$2.57 billion in 2006 when earnings were boosted by one-off gains, according to a consensus mean of 19 analysts polled by Reuters Estimates.
Singapore's second-biggest lender by assets, United Overseas Bank
The bank reported net profit of S$501 million ($345.3 million) for the July-September period, up from S$463 million a year ago, but lower than a mean forecast of S$516 million by five analysts polled by Reuters Estimates.
The bank said that trading and investment income was hurt by mark-to-market losses from widening credit spreads triggered by the U.S. subprime crisis.
Investor were hoping for a better result after DBS Group Holdings
UOB, which had a smaller direct exposure to risky debt compared to DBS, made provisions for its exposure to collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) in the second quarter and July.
It made another S$20 million worth of provisions against its CDO investments of S$388 million. In addition it made another S$46 million of mark-to-market provision against its reserves.
UOB, controlled by its chairman Wee Cho Yaw and his family, is considered the leader in the loan market for small and medium businesses and has benefited from Singapore's strong economic growth.
Shares of UOB have risen faster than its rivals in the last quarter when Singapore banks were hit by concerns over exposure to CDOs.
UOB rose 0.5 percent in the third quarter, compared to DBS which fell 5.3 percent while OCBC dropped 2.7 percent.
DBS Vickers Research has a 12-mth target price of $27.50. Overweight rating for UOB.
http://www.remisiers.org/research//Sgbank251007%20dbs.pdf