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ho bee formed a bearish harami cross candlestick formation today. stocastics on overbought and pointing downwards. RSI also pointing down. caution needed.
http://sgsharemarket.com/home/2011/06/singapore-stock-market-screener-27062011/?=HoBee
Beautiful ray of hope at Sentosa.
Break the vibration zone and continue to move up.
Thank....You just remind me the important of keeping it simple
warrenbegger ( Date: 31-Mar-2011 10:48) Posted:
Not bad, u can see what i write while other see it differently. Simple strategy is so safe and good but it is the hardest to apply, while many others find complex strategy is the answer and lost in the wild forest. Everybody got different G-spot, and they had to find theirs :)
unbounded ( Date: 30-Mar-2011 20:57) Posted:
Disclipine, and experience constantly refine your systems...Book knowledge are not as good real experience but is indispensible :P
Indeed a lot of people can't control their emotion and being swallow by the 'beautiful chick'. Many would learn their lessons the hard way getting toasted  ...
There are no perfect models...Non can predict and beat the market 100%. Just find some models that suit you the best that have odd over 50% is good enough
just simplify your message :P
cheongsl: i suppose you should read it....even through is for simple for beginner but the examples and analysing is good. I am sure you might learn something new :P
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Not bad, u can see what i write while other see it differently. Simple strategy is so safe and good but it is the hardest to apply, while many others find complex strategy is the answer and lost in the wild forest. Everybody got different G-spot, and they had to find theirs :)
unbounded ( Date: 30-Mar-2011 20:57) Posted:
Disclipine, and experience constantly refine your systems...Book knowledge are not as good real experience but is indispensible :P
Indeed a lot of people can't control their emotion and being swallow by the 'beautiful chick'. Many would learn their lessons the hard way getting toasted ...
There are no perfect models...Non can predict and beat the market 100%. Just find some models that suit you the best that have odd over 50% is good enough
just simplify your message :P
cheongsl: i suppose you should read it....even through is for simple for beginner but the examples and analysing is good. I am sure you might learn something new :P
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Yes....we are all idiot....pursing all sort perfection and in the end...awaken from this long dream
Disclipine, and experience constantly refine your systems...Book knowledge are not as good real experience but is indispensible :P
Indeed a lot of people can't control their emotion and being swallow by the 'beautiful chick'. Many would learn their lessons the hard way getting toasted
...
There are no perfect models...Non can predict and beat the market 100%. Just find some models that suit you the best that have odd over 50% is good enough
just simplify your message :P
cheongsl: i suppose you should read it....even through is for simple for beginner but the examples and analysing is good. I am sure you might learn something new :P
I had read more than 110+ investment book, 20+ philosophy and psychology book and more than 1000++ prono education strategy till now, and when all combine, i go siao and totally confuse. But after i forget all that i learn and start to learn new formula/system again, i feel so shoik and high, like prolong ejection that last forever. I want to tell u all about right perfect system, it not system that pros use, is the system that u build yourself that suit u most. But i know not many can really do that, only those who know what to do and how to get there can really make it. When a beautiful chick strip naked in front of u, u lose control and early ejection, u get eaten up. But when u attain a lvl that see beyond, u know that she and me is just human, nothing difference, nothing desire, nothing attraction. I see through her and she know, i really see through her. I flow with the wind, i ride with the wave, i fly with the sky... Dont know which idiot know what rubbish i talk or not? :)
unbounded ( Date: 29-Mar-2011 17:52) Posted:
Seem like you trust TA more than FA lol
warrenbegger ( Date: 29-Mar-2011 09:30) Posted:
Base on my expertise and professional in chosing stock, i look into this value,
Astromancy, Taromancy, Runecasting, Numerology, Geomancy, Face Reading, I-Ching divination and Feng shui position. Green dragon must play 69 with white tiger in line of solar eclipse, and early ejection in trend must be red bull playing 69 with care bear too. With shooting star aiming at the position u shit(toilet), prepare some KY jelly, toys and unload gun when organism bullish. |
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I did not read this book before, will try to find one to see the similarity in my analysis, and what are the thing that I might be missing in. Most of the book that I have read are on technical analysis, eg. Trading choas by bill williams, Alexandar elder trading for a living.
unbounded ( Date: 29-Mar-2011 17:43) Posted:
| hmm...just wondering have you read the book " warren buffet and the interpretation of financial statements" from mary buffett & david clark? it focus mainly on detail financial statements analysing. Seem like there are lot of similiarity in the book analysis and your model....Same go for me lol |
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Seem like you trust TA more than FA lol
warrenbegger ( Date: 29-Mar-2011 09:30) Posted:
Base on my expertise and professional in chosing stock, i look into this value,
Astromancy, Taromancy, Runecasting, Numerology, Geomancy, Face Reading, I-Ching divination and Feng shui position. Green dragon must play 69 with white tiger in line of solar eclipse, and early ejection in trend must be red bull playing 69 with care bear too. With shooting star aiming at the position u shit(toilet), prepare some KY jelly, toys and unload gun when organism bullish. |
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hmm...just wondering have you read the book " warren buffet and the interpretation of financial statements" from mary buffett & david clark? it focus mainly on detail financial statements analysing. Seem like there are lot of similiarity in the book analysis and your model....Same go for me lol
Base on my expertise and professional in chosing stock, i look into this value,
Astromancy, Taromancy, Runecasting, Numerology, Geomancy, Face Reading, I-Ching divination and Feng shui position. Green dragon must play 69 with white tiger in line of solar eclipse, and early ejection in trend must be red bull playing 69 with care bear too. With shooting star aiming at the position u shit(toilet), prepare some KY jelly, toys and unload gun when organism bullish.
I have 5 factors in consideration:
1) Profit vs revenue, for the revenue section, will evaluated the revenue, if those items I think is one off and non-repeatable I will remove and reduce the revenue or increase the revenue accordingly, The Profit/Revenue show the gain from the sales, which is how competitive the company to the financial environment, this factor usually kick off many retailing company, construction company whose profit margin is thin, and at any time can shift from positive to negative. If this factor is consistent then it shows the chances of this company to grow to big company is high.
This factor I have the highest multiple factor.
2) Profit/share vs share price, this factor show the number of years it is possible for the business to earn the money equal to the share price, thus the longer I will be less interested.
This factor I have the second highest multiple factor.
3) The liability vs asset ratio, the high liability might hinder the development of the company, moderate borrowing to ensure cash follow is welcome.
This factor I have the third highest multiple factor.
4) Total equity/share vs share price, this factor show how much I can get when the company close down, the higher the better.
This factor I have the second lowest multiple factor
5) Divident vs share price, this factor show how much I can consistently gain yearly, the more the better.
This factor have the lowest multiple factor.
With sum of all this factor, I multiple with the normalise factor which is the consistency of the above factor to ensure the reliability of the data, if last two year result show revenue vs profit losy, but this year the result suddenly is good, this normalisng factor will make the share less attactive, with more years of this good result, then this normalising factor will improve.
As factor 2, 4 and 5 is affect by share price, if price go down, my investibility increase. I will queue in when the investibility hit certain figure and buy, wait until the sell call, then sell off all, otherwise will maintain buy.
But sometime when the result suddenly turn bad, I might have to sell all at a lost, after evaluating the annual report.
unbounded ( Date: 28-Mar-2011 21:38) Posted:
let see....my models have been throw aside for quite sometime ever since i focus on forex....
I look at multiple factors:
1.how much fund allocated to advertisement, R& D to maintain competition
2.management (how they reduce the cogs, leverage usage: risk appetite)
3.patent, nature of business
let say this i find stock A passes all 3 criteria and i give the confident modifier factors(score) of 1.5
therefore the acceptable price range is:
P/B * confident modifier(e.g 1.5) + eps average (maybe 3 yrs) * beta (market risk normally around 1)* yrs (depend on long term to short term)
My model tend to favour china stock like dapai....yet people fear of china stock making the stock undervalued lol...i suppose i need to add in some popularity modifier somewhere, and consider adding 52wk high and low as a cushion.
I come back to the model after i master forex (forex burn my hands  )..
How do you minimize the human psychology/bias toward certain stock? e.g fuel production companies?
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let see....my models have been throw aside for quite sometime ever since i focus on forex....
I look at multiple factors:
1.how much fund allocated to advertisement, R& D to maintain competition
2.management (how they reduce the cogs, leverage usage: risk appetite)
3.patent, nature of business
let say this i find stock A passes all 3 criteria and i give the confident modifier factors(score) of 1.5
therefore the acceptable price range is:
P/B * confident modifier(e.g 1.5) + eps average (maybe 3 yrs) * beta (market risk normally around 1)* yrs (depend on long term to short term)
My model tend to favour china stock like dapai....yet people fear of china stock making the stock undervalued lol...i suppose i need to add in some popularity modifier somewhere, and consider adding 52wk high and low as a cushion.
I come back to the model after i master forex (forex burn my hands
)..
How do you minimize the human psychology/bias toward certain stock? e.g fuel production companies?
Thanks, what are the three factors you look into?
I look at 5 fundamental values + normalisation factor from pass year result.
unbounded ( Date: 27-Mar-2011 22:11) Posted:
Sorry for my bad english. I was refering to 3 factors that i looked into namely P/B ratio, the market demand of that competition and the competition that firm faced'. I don't mean that P/B ratio show the demand...
i use P/B ratio as the basic valuation of the stock (meaning how much it worth at least), and add on with some eps and other factors (the future potential, need to know that field well)..
Example ho bee cost $1.40 per share and P/B ratio is 2, so i know that minimum i will pay for that stock is 70 cents(i prefer using owner equity divide by the common share rather than P/B ratio althought it give 'same' result) and some price modifier factors like economic moats (able to sustain earning) etc...
This model don't really work well in certain stocks as some stocks are more populars(bias) while some not. Therefore i trying to refine my valuation as time goes by. It is very hard to use same models to value certain stocks since different sectors have different characteristics.
Example like aircraft and telecom have higher expenses and bigger loans due to the nature of their business, yet they possess strong economic moats to prevent competitions join in eroding their earnings. |
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Sorry for my bad english. I was refering to 3 factors that i looked into namely P/B ratio, the market demand of that competition and the competition that firm faced'. I don't mean that P/B ratio show the demand...
i use P/B ratio as the basic valuation of the stock (meaning how much it worth at least), and add on with some eps and other factors (the future potential, need to know that field well)..
Example ho bee cost $1.40 per share and P/B ratio is 2, so i know that minimum i will pay for that stock is 70 cents(i prefer using owner equity divide by the common share rather than P/B ratio althought it give 'same' result) and some price modifier factors like economic moats (able to sustain earning) etc...
This model don't really work well in certain stocks as some stocks are more populars(bias) while some not. Therefore i trying to refine my valuation as time goes by. It is very hard to use same models to value certain stocks since different sectors have different characteristics.
Example like aircraft and telecom have higher expenses and bigger loans due to the nature of their business, yet they possess strong economic moats to prevent competitions join in eroding their earnings.
How does the P/B ratio show the market demand and competition? Please enlighten me.
Currently my P/B ratio contribution for the fundamental statistic is low, otherwise this will not have a 130% investibility based on Friday price. It might be even higher.
My interpretation of P/B ratio is that it might have lots of tangible asset which is accumulated from the past years but whether when convert to cash will it be same value is unknown.
My main contribution for the fundamental value is the profit/revenue ratio, when this is high means cost of sales is low, and if it maintain over 20% for many years, that means the nich of market is high earning and low competition.
unbounded ( Date: 25-Mar-2011 18:04) Posted:
I agree with you that fundamental as a base is important. That why i rely more on P/B ratio, the market demand of that competition and the competition that firm faced. Most importantly is the future earning prospect and buy low |
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" the market demand of that competition "
correction:
i mean how demanding the firms products or services in the future (future earning prospect)
unbounded ( Date: 25-Mar-2011 18:04) Posted:
I agree with you that fundamental as a base is important. That why i rely more on P/B ratio, the market demand of that competition and the competition that firm faced. Most importantly is the future earning prospect and buy low |
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I agree with you that fundamental as a base is important. That why i rely more on P/B ratio, the market demand of that competition and the competition that firm faced. Most importantly is the future earning prospect and buy low
