Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

Haha I thought U suppose to quit posting here now that it's already Aug 2008 and BIG is nowhere near yr target...? back out of promise?

bengster68      ( Date: 12-Aug-2008 10:33) Posted: Now got a lot of "dragons" and "snakes" inside this stock. TA not working now although under normal circumstances in should work. Just hold on to your BIG shares now and don't sell them too early. My personal target is above $1 after TCT2008.

 

i am holding on......  go go go... lol...  

 

BIG CHEONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!AH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

MR.BENG POSTED ON MAY:

BIG will book US$8m profit for 1QFY2009 and 4 more times of US$8m for the next 4 years. Plus, China JWMS (BIG's subsidiary) will make at least US$25m this year. Im using a net profit CAGR of around 60% only. Net profit CAGR of 2007 vs 2006 is almost 100% for JWMS. Hope that can ease your mind a little. FYI, JWMS made US$8.5m in 2006 and US$16m in 2007. In 2006 and 2007, JWMS enjoy tax free income from the chinese government. In 2008 and 2009, tax rate will be half the usual. With the newly released 2,000 patient CREATE trial showing excellent results for this Made-In-China EXCEL DES, the sales of EXCEL DES should get a tremendous boost. So i think my net profit forecast for JWMS of at least US$25m is conservative. US$8m plus US$25m = US$33m profit liao. I think there will be more to come.     

bengster68      ( Date: 12-Aug-2008 10:33) Posted: Now got a lot of "dragons" and "snakes" inside this stock. TA not working now although under normal circumstances in should work. Just hold on to your BIG shares now and don't sell them too early. My personal target is above $1 after TCT2008.

 

Now got a lot of "dragons" and "snakes" inside this stock. TA not working now although under normal circumstances in should work. Just hold on to your BIG shares now and don't sell them too early. My personal target is above $1 after TCT2008.

 

Let watch the show again.

 

Beginning to see some movement again. Looks like accumulation before results is announced. Btw, for BIG, TA doesn't seem to be very accurate due to BBs playing this counter. To have peace of mind, its better to vest on FA instead and wait for the rewards

 

Do you know BNP is buying for who? Soon we will know. And when we know who has been buying, you will then realise what i have said are not bullshit. Biomed companies are not about past losses, its about top class technology dude!

 

What is your TA telling you now? What is your TP one month later?

 

bengster,

for heavens sakes stop that bullshit about BNP, takeovers and what have you. It's TA dude! 

bengster68      ( Date: 10-Aug-2008 00:03) Posted: I heard BNP Paribas was accumulating over the past few days. This French bank brokerage don't have proprietary house traders here in Singapore (syndicate trader zheng kays). I think they could be buying for institutional buyers. If UxB KxxHxxx or CxxB-Gx Gxh is buying up, it could be their house traders game. Does anyone here that have sold recently checked who was their counter party buying the shares they sold? (esp if your sell queue was bought up by one very large buy up of say 700 to 1000 lots. Syndicates have influence / connections over media reports like Dow Jones Market News so have to be careful when you read such market comments. Real takeover negotiations will only happen after LEADERS results (remember Conor's M&A lesson?) and takeover should be around $3 if it does happen. There could be a chance recent buying is from a potential M&A buyer is secretly accumulating 4.9% now if they have some form of "positive news from hospitals / clinicians/  trial centres" with regards to LEADERS trial results. On fully diluted share basis (incl share options, convertible loan stock, warrants, etc), BIG currently has around 1.2 billion potential issued shares. An M&A offer at $3 equals S$3.6B or US$2.6B. This US$2.6B price tag comes with CE Mark, confirmation of top class clinical results (LEADERS), a whole pipeline of future generation DES like Bio-flex, Biomatrix-Freedom, Biolimus ABSORB and also 50% stake in China JWMS at the current state excluding the second 50% of China JWMS. US$2.6B for the whole package under Biosensors Group (most importantly a DES technology that can beat Xience DES) VS US$4.1B cash which Abbott paid for Xience R&D program, i think taking over BIG at $3 per share is effectively giving the acquirer TWICE the value of what Abbott paid for for buying over Xience R&D program. That means even at $3 per BIG share at M&A, it is still twice the value of Xience's US$4.1B transacted price. Buying over BIG at $3 is not over paying at all. The most important thing for the buyer is to be able to fully exploit BIG's top class DES technology and China JWMS to become the most dominant global DES player. That my personal opinion.

 

CWQuah,

Good TA you have there. 

Ya, Charts don't lie. It is better to believe them. 

CWQuah      ( Date: 11-Aug-2008 11:36) Posted: Now trading at 62.5c despite Dow +300. Charts don't lie. Reversal candles are not to be trifled with. But with this price retracement, it indicates potential future entry opportunities for investors. FA-wise, don't see any bearish issue. Be patient for the next suitable entry. CWQuah      ( Date: 08-Aug-2008 17:20) Posted: This is one of the TA techniques for me to evaluate (based on bar charting) to see if the rally can sustain anymore. To me, if the bar chart cannot close above a previous high, I take it as a potential sign of impending reversal. Reversal of course may not come to fruition if there are still people getting swept into the buying frenzy. There are of course other things to weigh e.g. anymore BB still inside this stock, impending news, etc, but personally, looking at the TA, I certainly would advise some caution. I've nothing against supporters of the stock, or FA-based investors. I'm just reading its moves as it comes. I shld have qualified the earlier statement - if it closes at or below 66c, better to take profit 1st.

 

Now trading at 62.5c despite Dow +300. Charts don't lie. Reversal candles are not to be trifled with.

But with this price retracement, it indicates potential future entry opportunities for investors. FA-wise, don't see any bearish issue. Be patient for the next suitable entry.

CWQuah      ( Date: 08-Aug-2008 17:20) Posted: This is one of the TA techniques for me to evaluate (based on bar charting) to see if the rally can sustain anymore. To me, if the bar chart cannot close above a previous high, I take it as a potential sign of impending reversal. Reversal of course may not come to fruition if there are still people getting swept into the buying frenzy. There are of course other things to weigh e.g. anymore BB still inside this stock, impending news, etc, but personally, looking at the TA, I certainly would advise some caution. I've nothing against supporters of the stock, or FA-based investors. I'm just reading its moves as it comes. I shld have qualified the earlier statement - if it closes at or below 66c, better to take profit 1st. jasonrxz      ( Date: 08-Aug-2008 16:42) Posted: Wow.... it may really close at .66 from what i see now... but what is the reason being this quote? can highlight on this??   cheers

 

As Cleveland Clinic Tries Stents, Boston Scientific Sits Out

August 07, 2008

Boston Scientific Corp.

As a renowned heart hospital, the Cleveland Clinic lends much gravitas - if not financial benefit - to suppliers who win contracts there. The hospital made headlines in late 2006 when it inked an 18-month deal that made Boston Scientific a "preferred vendor" at a time when Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) had the only other coated stent available in the U.S. market.

After a nearly four-year drought, more devices are now competing for doctors' attention, and multiple companies will be supplying the Cleveland Clinic for the next year, said Mark West, director of supply chain management at the hospital, in an interview. The prior deal with Boston Scientific recently expired.

"For the next year, doctors have access to most of the products," West said. " We're going to let the doctors use those products for the next 12 months, and then we'll get back down to one or two products."

He declined to say which of the four U.S. coated-stent makers was not participating with their products. But spokespeople for three companies - Medtronic Inc. (MDT), Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Johnson & Johnson's Cordis unit - all confirmed that their companies are in the mix.

A Boston Scientific spokesman said the company declined to comment on the matter. Boston Scientific's Taxus stent has long been the top-selling coated device in the U.S., but is facing pressure from new competitors.

Medtronic won Food and Drug Administration approval in February for its coated stent, while Abbott won FDA approval for its device in July, injecting fresh competition into the U.S. market. Boston Scientific also sells the Abbott-made stent, with a different name, under a profit-sharing deal linked to the 2006 purchase of Guidant Corp.

Boston Scientific is also hoping to resolve a regulatory issue soon and clear the way for a next-generation version of its Taxus stent in the U.S. Of the four companies, J&J's Cordis is viewed as having the most to lose as new products capture business, since it does not have a new coated device in the home market.

Coronary stents are tiny metal devices that act as scaffolds for clogged heart arteries, and coated stents use medication to combat renarrowing. The coated devices are newer and more commonly used than bare-metal stents, and cost more than twice as much at roughly $2,000 per device. The global coated stent market is worth about $4 billion.

>> looks to me that JNJ and Boston in loosing end. If most hospitals start doing this.. which is to start selecting the the top 1/2, then we will start seeing probably Xience and Endeavor only surviving (my assumption is that doctors are still worried about the Late thrombosis numbers and might not select Cypher).

 

 

 

Can some guru/trader pls enlighten me...

Everytime short, have to buy back, right? does the 5 day rule also apply to house traders?

Who would sell a stock below purchase price if there is clear potential of it going above purchase price? What is the strategy of making $ when doing so? If someone can answer in context to the transaction history of biosensor, tt wld be great.

Context:
12 Jun - 31 Jul: Bios traded below 70c, total vol exchanged: ~90.55mil
1 Aug - 8 Aug: Bios start to go up aggresively, total vol exchanged ~102.42mil

Presumably, a lot of those who sell from 12jun-31jul are selling at lost (cut-loss) or force-sell or short selling. Assuming Super Big Boy #1 (SBB-1) mop up the entire 90.55 trading below 70c, then tt single SBB-1 is the only one who makes $ selling  Bios when SBB-2 is buying it up. But total transaction going up is 102.42 (>90.55)...so who else is making $ selling below 70c? (since IPO is 70c and avg px for the longest time is >70c)

So obviously, i'm a super noob. How does all this maths add up? Can a guru or house trader enlighten me pls..

 

I heard BNP Paribas was accumulating over the past few days. This French bank brokerage don't have proprietary house traders here in Singapore (syndicate trader zheng kays). I think they could be buying for institutional buyers. If UxB KxxHxxx or CxxB-Gx Gxh is buying up, it could be their house traders game. Does anyone here that have sold recently checked who was their counter party buying the shares they sold? (esp if your sell queue was bought up by one very large buy up of say 700 to 1000 lots. Syndicates have influence / connections over media reports like Dow Jones Market News so have to be careful when you read such market comments. Real takeover negotiations will only happen after LEADERS results (remember Conor's M&A lesson?) and takeover should be around $3 if it does happen. There could be a chance recent buying is from a potential M&A buyer is secretly accumulating 4.9% now if they have some form of "positive news from hospitals / clinicians/  trial centres" with regards to LEADERS trial results.

On fully diluted share basis (incl share options, convertible loan stock, warrants, etc), BIG currently has around 1.2 billion potential issued shares. An M&A offer at $3 equals S$3.6B or US$2.6B. This US$2.6B price tag comes with CE Mark, confirmation of top class clinical results (LEADERS), a whole pipeline of future generation DES like Bio-flex, Biomatrix-Freedom, Biolimus ABSORB and also 50% stake in China JWMS at the current state excluding the second 50% of China JWMS. US$2.6B for the whole package under Biosensors Group (most importantly a DES technology that can beat Xience DES) VS US$4.1B cash which Abbott paid for Xience R&D program, i think taking over BIG at $3 per share is effectively giving the acquirer TWICE the value of what Abbott paid for for buying over Xience R&D program. That means even at $3 per BIG share at M&A, it is still twice the value of Xience's US$4.1B transacted price. Buying over BIG at $3 is not over paying at all. The most important thing for the buyer is to be able to fully exploit BIG's top class DES technology and China JWMS to become the most dominant global DES player. That my personal opinion.      

 

Well said, elfinchilde!      There is a very big difference between a company and the stock of the company.  I think a lot of followers of this thread got confused here.  You have shed some light.  There is also a big difference between a 'trader' & an 'investor'

 

hm. i'll say this tho:

if there's one person under whom the company can go far, it's Lu. he's very young to have come so far.

 

o8*&($@&#)............ typed a whole long reply but it kena erased. argh.

in brief:

bengster, i wasn't meaning you when i said insider info. you've been posting here and in a consistent call for far too long for it to be insider; plus, you are too detailed on clinical trials and all that, which if you did have inside info, you'd not bother to do so. so full respects to you for that.

my original background is in the biomedical field, with key specialisation in pioneering medical diagnostics; so i know about patents, trials and all that.

leaving aside TA, esp since i know which cartel is running this counter; focusing on FA and macros:

their product does show a lot of promise, but between successful clinical trial to practical sales--how many hospitals will use it? what are they pricing it at? how will patients take to it?---there's a whole lot of unknowns. plus, who's to say another new company won't come up with the next new thing? This is a highly competitive field. until it is proven, it is merely hope.

M&A of Abott and Conor took place in 06-07. Those were the boom years for M&As, esp biomeds (due to their size), when the world was, as the phrase went, "awash in liquidity."

For biosensors to have an M&A in a bad global climate, their product has to be justifiably good. The takeover company must also be a coy that has a lot of cash. Most US pharmas are in a loss state/reduced growth forecast due to the bad US climate.  

If an M&A does occur tho, which i should hope, for the sakes of the investors here, then takeover premium is a standard 25% of last five trading days, which pegs biosensors at about 75c. not a bad profit for those who bought at 46c. (assuming 12 aug is when they'll announce it) 

Just some of the points to watch out for.

The fact that does it for me at the end of the day: BBs do not give shit about fundamentals; it is merely a tool for them to play up or down the market. So what fundamental investors risk in this small market is that a counter runs up, they hold and hold and hold, while BBs ramp and dump, leaving them holding onto it. Who cries then? There is a very big difference between a company and the stock of the company.

So yea. All due respect to you bengster; you're one of the most thorough investors i've seen in a long time, which is a very good thing.  Pls note that i'm not for or against this counter.

for me, personally, i'm much more cold-hearted and rational than that: At the end of the day, there is no such thing as a good stock or a bad stock for me: there is only one in which you make money, and one in which you make loss.

Which is it, is what determines an investor's success.

The rest is sound and fury. And this is how the market works, to me.

cheers!

 

You could be right. 

bengster68      ( Date: 09-Aug-2008 16:12) Posted: This phenomenon is very difficult to pass judgement and conclude. If im the institutional accumulator of BIG shares now, i will also know how most retail people think and will let the stock drift down at afternoon closing. The next day morning those kanchiong spiders will sell and i will come out again late morning. Some days i will buy, some days i will let the stock drift down to let the contra punters selldown so i can accumulate more cheaply. I may even put in fake sell queue. There were many cases the closing is strong but the days following, the stock just drift down. Very difficult to guess what the tricks the strong BBs are playing. If you believe this stock should worth more, just hold. If you think this stock is over-valued, just sell. Share price can be manipulated by the strong BBs. I definitely holding on as i think there are many bigger things to come for this stock.   Livermore      ( Date: 09-Aug-2008 13:32) Posted: When you see a stock suddenly surge up and then at closing it suddenly close lower or weak, it is usually an indication the uptrend is not sustainable

 

This phenomenon is very difficult to pass judgement and conclude. If im the institutional accumulator of BIG shares now, i will also know how most retail people think and will let the stock drift down at afternoon closing. The next day morning those kanchiong spiders will sell and i will come out again late morning. Some days i will buy, some days i will let the stock drift down to let the contra punters selldown so i can accumulate more cheaply. I may even put in fake sell queue. There were many cases the closing is strong but the days following, the stock just drift down.

Very difficult to guess what the tricks the strong BBs are playing. If you believe this stock should worth more, just hold. If you think this stock is over-valued, just sell. Share price can be manipulated by the strong BBs. I definitely holding on as i think there are many bigger things to come for this stock.  

Livermore      ( Date: 09-Aug-2008 13:32) Posted: When you see a stock suddenly surge up and then at closing it suddenly close lower or weak, it is usually an indication the uptrend is not sustainable

 

Sometimes my broker would sms me a certain stock has risen. I would sometimes wait till nearly market closing to see whether the price is going to close strongly or weak.