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ekekeg, how do you check your account to see if your share is borrowed?
ekekeg ( Date: 19-Aug-2008 16:15) Posted:
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Wow wow wow, why is BIG inching down 1 cent after another? Understand plenty of people borrowed shares to short. My account was also borrowed quite a bit.
People got no shares selling shares. People got shares die lah! What to do? Any advice?
Hi TC, are you refering to Biomatrix approval or China approval to allow the M&A of JWMS? This 12 to 18 months has some confusion element in it. Eg: some analysts from UBS said Biomatrix approval will take 12 to 18 months from now (Aug 2008) but i remember clearly BIG said Biomatrix China approval will take 12 to 18 months from CE approval date which was Jan 2008. The start date of this 12 to 18 months is the confusion here.
If you are refering to acquisition of JWMS, i think there is some confusion by Edge magazine also because the deal was originally planned to be completed by end Oct 2008. Now that there is a delay, im not sure when the Chinese authorities will give the green light. Nobody can guess the approval will be granted 12 to 18 months from now. I personally think within 6 months we should have an answer on this from the Chinese authorities. If there is a delay in completion of the deal, BIG's bottomline will be slightly affected because of the other 50% net profit conbtribution from JWMS. I think WeiGao will highlight the benefits of being acquired by BIG for international exposure and access to top class IPs. The future pipeline of DESs for JWMS have to come from using BIG's technology. Without this technology, JWMS is just another normal medical device distributor in China. With BIG's backing and technology, JWMS will be number 2 player in China market soon, have future access to newer DES technology for future products, etc. The BIG / JWMS deal is a match made in heaven and it is in the interest of both parties for the deal to be completed. M&A of BIG and JNJ should be another match made in heaven. When merged together, JNJ with BIG's technology and JWMS will become the most dominant global DES player and im certainly looking forward to it.
In a poll in crtonline.org :
What is the primary stent that XIENCE V / PROMOUS replaced in your lab?
Cypher 41.83 %
Taxus 50.72 %
Endeavor 5.16 %
BMS 2.29 %
I suppose this poll is for physicians who intends to use the new Xience DES. Looks like newer DES with better efficacy and safety profile may overtake the older generation DES. This is an inevitable trend, which goes for any product out there, in the medical world.
Boston Scientific said yesterday that it has recalled its NexStent products because of a defective stent delivery system. The Food & Drug Administration (FDA) has deemed the NexStent recall a Class I recall. Such recalls are for dangerous or defective products that predictably could cause serious health problems or death.
NexStent products are used in patients to treat a blockage (stenosis) in the carotid artery, known as carotid artery disease. The two carotid arteries (located on either side of the neck) supply blood to the brain. The device is used in a procedure called carotid artery stenting (CAS), in which the physician places the self-expanding stent in the carotid artery to keep the artery open and to help prevent future narrowing of the artery.
The stent uses one of two delivery systems called the Monorail and Over the Wire, according to the FDA. The recall applies to the Monorail system as well as the stent itself.
The NexStent recall was initiated because the tip of the device used to implant the stent can break off and may damage the blood vessel wall or lead to stroke. If the device malfunctions, emergency surgery could be required to remove the tip. The recall includes NexStent products made from June 2007 to May 2008.
Nearly 2700 NexStent products are involved in this recall. The recall does not affect stents that have already been implanted. That is because the problem caused by the defect only occurs during implantation.
Boston Scientific first made its customers aware of the NexStent products recall via a letter dated June 6, 2008. The FDA said that healthcare professionals and consumers may report any problems with the NexStent system to the FDA’s MedWatch Adverse Event Reporting program either online, by regular mail or by FAX. Patients with questions about recalled NexStent products should contact their doctors.
“All U.S. hospitals have responded to Boston Scientific, and a significant number of the distributed devices have been returned,” Boston Scientific said in a statement.
UBS said Outperform but lower TP??? Plus, BIG's manangement has maintained that Biomatrix China approval is expected to be 12 to 18 months after CE Mark (Jan 2008) so that means somewhere Jan to July 2009, not 12 to 18 months from now as reported by UBS. However, there are people in the DES industry feel Biomatrix should be able to obtain China approval earlier than expect and most likely should be at somewhere end of 2008.
: Credit Suisse Report:
Biosensors International Group Ltd. -----------------------------------Maintain OUTPERFORM
1Q09 review: strong ramp up of Biormatrix sales EPS: ▲ TP: ◄►
Jinsong Du / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6589 / jinsong.du@credit-suisse.com Justin Liu / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7350 / justin.liu@credit-suisse.com
● Biosensors announced 1Q09 (quarter ended in Jun 09) results
yesterday. With the accounting treatment change to recognise the
US$40 mn one-time payment of licensing fee, 1Q09 revenue grew
303% QoQ to US$58 mn. Without this change, revenue was
US$20 mn. The BioMatrix stent generated US$7.2 mn in 1Q09,
exceeding Credit Suisse estimates.
● The smaller than expected reoccurring licensing revenue,
however, raised concerns on the future contribution from the
revenue-sharing with Terumo. Since this was only Terumo first
quarter of selling Nobori stent, we remain confident on our
estimates and will closely monitor the progress.
● We have been assuming the JWMS deal in rejected by the Chinese government, and both Biosensors and
Shandong Weigao confirmed that yesterday. Our revenue
estimates now DO NOT consolidate JWMS sales any more.
● Biosensors stay very confident on the upcoming LEADERS trial
results, which is scheduled to release by end Aug and could serve
as a near-term catalyst. Maintain OUTPERFORM.
US$40 mn payment from Terumo recognised in 1Q09
On 22 April 2008, the company announced that it signed a
modification to the licence agreement with Terumo (4543 JP, ￥6,170,
Not Rated), under which the company is to receive US$40 mn in
exchange for a reduction of the revenue sharing provisions applicable
to sales of the Nobori drug-eluting stent (DES) outside of company initially stated that this US$40 mn revenue would be
recognised over five year. However, the company now believes that it
is more appropriate from the accounting perspective to recognise this
US$40 mn now.
Stronger-than-expected BioMatrix ramp-up, but licensing
revenue implies minimal revenue sharing from Terumo
BioMatrix was commercially launched in April 2008. With positive early
market acceptance in some European counties, the sales momentum of BioMatrix was
stronger than expected, and recorded US7.2 mn in 1Q09. (US$1.7 mn
in pre-launch sales in 4Q08).
The smaller than expected reoccurring licensing revenue, however,
may imply a minimal revenue sharing from Terumo’s Nobori stent and
have raised concerns among investors on the future contribution from
the revenue-sharing with Terumo. Since this was only Terumo first
quarter of selling Nobori stent, we remain confident on our estimates
and will closely monitor the progress.
Restructuring on track and should improve margins in the
long run
Biosensors’ gross margin improved to 53.3% in 1Q09 from 39.3% in
1Q08, thanks to the sales of higher margin BioMatrix, which
accounted for 39% of total product revenue in 1Q09.
The company confirmed that the closedowns of facilities in the and the a negative impact on the bottom line, the company is confident that
long-term margins should improve after the completion of the
restructuring process. Staff downsizing in the by 2Q09 with an additional US$1.5-2 mn expenditure. Our estimates
of the restructuring expenses were detailed in our last quarter’s review
notes.
Upcoming LEADERS trial results – a positive catalyst
Biosensors plans to release the Leaders trial results during the
European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Congress (from 30 Aug. to 3
Sep.). Potentially positive trial results may serve as a near-term
catalyst for the share price, in our view.
Collaboration with forms
The company confirmed that they are discussing with Weigao (8199.HK, HK$11.50, Outperform, TP HK$19.00) on the
alternative plan to sell BioMatrix in rejected by the We believe this is a positive move for Biosensors and Weigao to continue working together on the SFDA application for
BioMatrix and the eventual distribution of Biomatrix in without the proposed deal. The company expected to receive SFDA
(Chinese FDA) approval for BioMatrix within the next 12-18 months.
We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and target price of S$0.9.
Newspaper questions Boston Scientific stent data
NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - A Boston Scientific Corp heart stent awaiting U.S. approval is backed by flawed research despite the medical device maker's claims of success in a clinical study, the Wall Street Journal said in its online edition, citing the newspaper's own review of the study data.
The 2006 study of the device, already sold overseas under the brand name Taxus Liberte, is currently being reviewed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
"Boston Scientific's claim was based on a flawed statistical equation that favored the Liberte stent," the newspaper said, noting the equation is known as the Wald interval.
Using a number of other methods of calculation -- including 14 available in off-the-shelf software programs -- the Liberte study would have been a failure by the common standards of statistical significance in research, the Journal said.
The journal said rival stent makers, including Medtronic Inc and Abbott Laboratories also use the equation, which the newspaper said has long been criticized by statisticians for exaggerating the certainty of research results.
But any boost provided by the Wald equation would not have changed the outcome of studies involving Medtronic and Abbott stents, the Journal said.
In the Taxus Liberte study, the equation's shortcomings meant the difference between success and failure of the trial's main goal, the newspaper said.
Boston Scientific spokesman Paul Donovan, asked by Reuters to comment on the Journal article, said it poses "an interesting statistical debate, but has no bearing on the performance of Taxus Liberte."
Donovan said the company remains hopeful the United States will approve the new stent in the third quarter. He said Taxus Liberte is designed to be more flexible and more deliverable than the company's older Taxus Express 2 stent, which is widely used in the United States and overseas.
"The trial met its primary endpoint (goal) and did so using statistical methods approved by the FDA, and the FDA has reviewed the trial results and the analysis and has validated both," Donovan said.
***BSX kelong???
I might as well give some details about this trial - which according to some, PCI (percutaneous Intervention, ie either a Bare metal stent or Balloon angioplasty, or DES) benefits loses its advantage to external drug therapy after 2 years ....
Extract below taken from the www.theheart.org.
Basically, it says that in the trial, the PCI that were done on patients were either bare metal stent or balloon angioplasty, and they were not using a DES, which might have given a better outcome.
Also, the consensus is there PCI and optimal drug therapy goes hand-in-hand, AND NOT that one will REPLACE the other.
FRom Theheart.org .......
"Bad PCI and unrealistically good medicine"
PCI didn't surpass OMT more decisively because the trial used "bad PCI and unrealistically good medicine," Dr Dean J Kereiakes (Christ Hospital Heart and
I'm amazed PCI as performed in this trial maintained superiority through two years, because of the extremely high frequency of bare-metal stents, high frequency of standard balloon angioplasty, and the incomplete revascularization in the PCI cohort," Kereiakes said.
According to the trial's primary report, "complete revascularization was performed as clinically appropriate." But it also notes that 69% and 70% of routine-PCI and OMT-only patients, respectively, had two- or three-vessel disease, whereas only 41% of routine-PCI patients received more than one stent [2]. Only 31 patients received DES, which for most of the study had yet to become available, the report notes.
Think of what could have been achieved if more complete PCI had been performed, with optimal technology—that is, with drug-eluting stents. You would have had a more durable benefit of PCI," Kereiakes said.
Excellent medical therapy and a high level of compliance within the confines of the clinical trial also narrowed the outcomes gap between the two patient groups, Kereiakes said. "The level of medication and even the goals achieved, as far as blood-pressure control, cholesterol levels, etc, were truly remarkable in this trial. It's admirable, I think it's inspirational, but it's unrealistic."
In the eye of the beholder
He added, "Patients with objective evidence of ischemia, absolutely, if feasible, should have PCI plus OMT, unless there are mitigating circumstances." PCI wouldn't be required, he said, if medication completely controls both symptoms and objectively documented ischemia, whether symptomatic or silent.
"These data contribute to my enthusiasm for doing PCI better than was done in this trial," Kereiakes said. "Still giving optimal medications to the extent that they're tolerated and the patients are compliant, I have no doubt that a strategy of complete revascularization with optimal technologies would provide a significantly greater gap than was demonstrated to two years in this trial and would extend that benefit beyond two years."
On the latter point, Weiner seemed to agree. If recurrent symptoms after PCI are often due to restenosis and DES can "virtually eliminate" restenosis—both ideas are borne out by the data—and then if DES are used in COURAGE-like patients, "it's not unreasonable to think that the separation between the two groups would be wider, and it would be maintained for a longer period of time," she said.
More conservative about when to perform PCI in COURAGE-like patients, Kaul outlined a scenario he thinks might indicate invasive management. "If on objective assessment you demonstrate a substantial degree of myocardial ischemia in association with reduced
"I would say, high-risk anatomy and a high-risk functional stress test—a large amount of myocardial ischemia and compromised
Editorialists Peterson and Rumsfeld emphasize that OMT and PCI aren't actually competitors. "The COURAGE trial redefines the contemporary roles of optimal medical therapy and PCI in the management of patients with stable angina. Rather than one victor, COURAGE demonstrates that both treatment strategies can have a profoundly positive effect on patients' health status and suggests complementary roles—optimal medical therapy as first-line therapy, with PCI reserved for patients who do not have a response or who have severe baseline symptoms."
Ahh - The Courage Trial - old news that ignited a controversy last year.
Suffice to say - without going thru all the convoluted details - People who do not need DES should be on external therapy, and there are people who do NEED the DES treatment and they should be prescribed accordingly by their physician.
If I am not mistaken, quite a lot of participants in the trial opted for DES (ie switch from external drug) during the trial, because of consistent angina (pain in the chest), and I believe that the participants are generally in the 'healthier' category.
Not a call to buy/sell.
Biosensors sales of US$6.7m of the Bio-matrix was in line with my own estimate, which I made earlier of between US$6-8m.
However, the licensing revenue of approx US$980,000 (Aprox US$1m) from Terumo was a bit on the low side. Assuming 30 % licensing fee, Terumo has sold US$3m worth of the Bio-matrix.
Key points from the CEO presentation are :
Gross margin of 58 % for the Interventional Cardiology segment, which comprises of 7.2m DES sales and 6.8m non-DES sales, implies that the GROSS MARGIN for the Bio-matrix is approx near the 70 % level. (my own calculations, assuming that the non-des portion has margin of 50 %). This margin can only increase as they ramp up the vol.
The presentation seems to emphasize quite a bit on the LEADER's trial results, with the CEO saying that he is 'very, very optimistic' about it, although 'offically' Biosensors, including top mgmt are 'not privy' to the clinical results.
THe CEO also mentioned that they ARE NOT abandoning the US mkt, but are re-assessing it and re-strategising - the probable scenario in my mind is that they will partner another company to tackle the US mkt, and probably with a slightly different product. (maybe the polymer-free DES ?)
When asked by Kelly from OCBC, whether 'Has anyone approach Biosensors for M&A, the CEO was momentarily stunned, and went on to first say that he has been talking to their competitors, and then say that he has 'no comments'. When pressed the second time by Kelly, the CFO came to the rescue, by saying that 'they do not comment, on M&A, until it is ready for public disclosure' or something to that effect.
My take is that 'IF THERE IS NO APPROACH ' by anyone. the CEO should have replied with a firm 'NO'.
Having said that, even if there are approaches by other companies, the price may not be attractive, or the offer may have lapse, with the sub-prime crisis, eroding whatever offer there is.
In summary, the 'Leaders Trial' clinical results is very important, and will determine whether Biosensors will be a formidable company or a just a mediocre one.
Above is my own assessment of the presentation - I may be wrong. Not a call to buy/sell.
cs (outperform) TP $0.9
ubs (buy) TP $0.9
report as of today .......sorry guy cannot attach file....