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paul1688
    20-Oct-2010 13:23  
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From DMG.

Strong take-up for high-end condo; showflat turnout continues to moderate.



We visited showflats for two new launches in Dhoby Ghaut (prime) and Farrer Park (mass). Turnout for both projects was moderate, but take-up was starkly different. In line with most mass condos launched in Sep – Oct 10, the Farrer Park project drew subdued take-up. In light of HDB resale prices tapering off, recent government measures and prospect of more projects in CY11 (from 2H10 Confirmed List), we expect the cautious approach of pricesensitive buyers here to continue. Strong sales for Allgreen’s prime condo have justified our positive view on the high-end segment, and we reckon a sustained level of buying activity here could provide a short-term catalyst to high-end developers, i.e. Wing Tai and SC Global. In light of flattish residential prices and slowing sales, we reiterate our positive stance on office landlords, i.e. KepLand.

 
 
pharoah88
    20-Oct-2010 10:43  
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KIM  ENG  COMMENTARY

After the market close, PBOC announced a 25 bps hikes in both 1-year lending rate and 1-year deposit rate. Interest rates for other tenor were also adjusted. Note that saving rates are kept unchanged.

This is the first interest rate movement made by PBOC since 23rd Dec 2008, amid the financial crisis. On that day PBOC cut both the 1-year lending and deposit rates by 27bps.

The direction of interest rate movement is well expected by market, but the timing is unexpected, while the structure of the interest rate hike is also interesting.

Our analyst comment:


*  Timing: The rate hike happened just after the 12th 5-year plan conference, which may trigger some speculation in change of monetary polices. We
believe that it is too early to say this, and still believe that this round of rate hike DOES NOT mean China is entering into a rate hike cycle with frequent and rapid interest rate hikes.



*  Structure: We always argue that the structure of the interest rate hike is more important than the hike itself. Note that previously there were rumors on asymmetric rate hike, i.e. raising deposit rate but keeping lending rate unchanged (which is obviously bad news to banks). This turned out to be false. Market’s concern on asymmetric rate hike should fade.


*  Also note that saving rates were kept unchanged. This is important to the banks:  On the funding side, the cost of saving deposit (typically 40-60% of total deposits), only the cost of time deposit will rise. While on the asset side, the yield of all of their loans will rise.


*  Effect: In short, the latest PBOC move should be moderately positive to the bank’s margins.


*  On the volume side, note that the mainland banks’ volume growth is almost inelastic to interest rate movement. Volume growth was mainly controlled by government instead.


*  Who is going to benefit: The banks with high loan/deposit ratios, and the banks with high portion of saving deposits are likely to benefit most.
Bocom, CITIC Bank, CMB and BOC are likely to benefit most.


*  The rate hike should be positive to insurer as well. We believe that PICC is going to benefit most.


*  Other implications: While the rate hike itself is moderately positive to the banks, we expect the market to react negatively. The weakness in overseas market, and the recent strong rally in China and HK market would trigger some profit taking.


*  Inflow of hot money, and strength in Rmb may continue after the rate hikes.


*  The upcoming CPI and GDP figures (both due on 21st Oct, Thu) may surprise the market on upside.

 
 
chinastar
    19-Oct-2010 13:18  
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how about 4.66

paul1688      ( Date: 18-Oct-2010 13:57) Posted:

DBSV latest call

Stick to commercial plays and mid caps. Property stocks are trading at 16% discount to RNAV, in tandem with the long term average. We believe that a faster reflation of RNAVs can be found in the commercial and retail segments compared to the residential segment. Hence, we keep our top stock picks of Keppel Land (Buy, TP $4.75) and UOL (Buy, TP $5.11). We also see greater value in the mid cap developers such as Ho Bee (Buy, TP $2.24).


 

 
paul1688
    18-Oct-2010 13:57  
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DBSV latest call

Stick to commercial plays and mid caps. Property stocks are trading at 16% discount to RNAV, in tandem with the long term average. We believe that a faster reflation of RNAVs can be found in the commercial and retail segments compared to the residential segment. Hence, we keep our top stock picks of Keppel Land (Buy, TP $4.75) and UOL (Buy, TP $5.11). We also see greater value in the mid cap developers such as Ho Bee (Buy, TP $2.24).

 
 
chinastar
    15-Oct-2010 16:25  
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It is a $$$$ land.

paul1688      ( Date: 15-Oct-2010 11:12) Posted:

TA by OCBC Research

Bullish breakout suggests more upside ahead

Trend: Keppel Land is poised for further upside after initiating a bullish breakout of its 3-month ascending triangle consolidation pattern (and also above the $4.20 key resistance) on significant volume pick-up yesterday.

Technical Indicator: With both the RSI (not yet overbought) and MACD still trending up steadily at the moment (see enlarged chart), they suggest that the bullish momentum is still building up.

Share Price Objective: Between $4.80 and $5.37

Time Horizon: 1-2 months   Immediate Resistance: $4.80   Immediate Support: $4.20


 
 
kyjnjn
    15-Oct-2010 11:22  
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Yes, let us aim for it!

sureesh40      ( Date: 15-Oct-2010 10:43) Posted:

Oh No, I am not laughing at you. In this forum we like to challenge each other to substantiate our opinions. We can all learn from each other's perspective. Anyway sometimes someone new to the stock market can make better investment decisions than a veteran. I might even change my TP to $9 also. Good luck to both of us.

 



kyjnjn      ( Date: 14-Oct-2010 21:53) Posted:

Well it's just a dream and definitely not so soon. With US$ becoming so cheap, commodities and assets will probably be on the way up. For the same reasons that u mentioned, very good sentiments and so forth, certain property stocks will again reach their all time high, history will repeat itself. Anyway please do not laugh at me, I am quite new to the stock market, still learning.



 

 
paul1688
    15-Oct-2010 11:12  
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TA by OCBC Research

Bullish breakout suggests more upside ahead

Trend: Keppel Land is poised for further upside after initiating a bullish breakout of its 3-month ascending triangle consolidation pattern (and also above the $4.20 key resistance) on significant volume pick-up yesterday.

Technical Indicator: With both the RSI (not yet overbought) and MACD still trending up steadily at the moment (see enlarged chart), they suggest that the bullish momentum is still building up.

Share Price Objective: Between $4.80 and $5.37

Time Horizon: 1-2 months   Immediate Resistance: $4.80   Immediate Support: $4.20

 
 
sureesh40
    15-Oct-2010 10:43  
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Oh No, I am not laughing at you. In this forum we like to challenge each other to substantiate our opinions. We can all learn from each other's perspective. Anyway sometimes someone new to the stock market can make better investment decisions than a veteran. I might even change my TP to $9 also. Good luck to both of us.

 



kyjnjn      ( Date: 14-Oct-2010 21:53) Posted:

Well it's just a dream and definitely not so soon. With US$ becoming so cheap, commodities and assets will probably be on the way up. For the same reasons that u mentioned, very good sentiments and so forth, certain property stocks will again reach their all time high, history will repeat itself. Anyway please do not laugh at me, I am quite new to the stock market, still learning.



sureesh40      ( Date: 14-Oct-2010 13:33) Posted:

$9 are you sure. You must be thinking that it will go back up to historic high in 2007, am I right?. But that was because there was very good sentiment towards property then, with wall street pushing property stocks high and with our very own IRs.

This time what would the catalyst be? 



 
 
paul1688
    15-Oct-2010 09:49  
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JP Morgan ups Keppel Land target to S$4.70



SINGAPORE, Oct 15 (Reuters) - JP Morgan has raised its target price for Singapore's property developer Keppel Land to S$4.70 from S$3.65 but kept its "neutral" rating.  JP Morgan has raised its target price for Keppel Land to reflect higher valuations for its modern, prime grade A office properties and to account for the accretion from its asset swap with its property trust unit K-REIT Asia .  But the broker has maintained its "neutral" rating as it sees few catalysts for share price outperformance, and as investors have more alternatives to get exposure to the Singapore office sector.

Shares of Keppel Land fell 0.2 percent to S$4.27 at 0117 GMT but have gained 22 percent so far this year.
 
 
kyjnjn
    14-Oct-2010 21:53  
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Well it's just a dream and definitely not so soon. With US$ becoming so cheap, commodities and assets will probably be on the way up. For the same reasons that u mentioned, very good sentiments and so forth, certain property stocks will again reach their all time high, history will repeat itself. Anyway please do not laugh at me, I am quite new to the stock market, still learning.



sureesh40      ( Date: 14-Oct-2010 13:33) Posted:

$9 are you sure. You must be thinking that it will go back up to historic high in 2007, am I right?. But that was because there was very good sentiment towards property then, with wall street pushing property stocks high and with our very own IRs.

This time what would the catalyst be? 



kyjnjn      ( Date: 14-Oct-2010 10:47) Posted:

Haha.. my dream is even further. I am dreaming for $9.00!


 

 
Livermore
    14-Oct-2010 20:45  
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I believe the upside for this is much more 
 
 
epliew
    14-Oct-2010 20:00  
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let hope the property market break the bubble..... otherwise alot of people going to suffer like 1997 ...... for 10 years nobody will be interest in property market again......

keppel recent property swap with REIT is a strange one.......

and hopefully beijing/vietnam investment do not drop......

living in a world of uncertainty -recovery but high unemployment rate, basel III/std chart making profits -but raising fund  - my sincerely hope all singaporean trade within your limits..........do not get caught.



epliew      ( Date: 05-Oct-2010 15:33) Posted:

thanks paul, the most important point i ask myself when i was monitoring this counter and purchased quite a few times at 3.7x range.  sold all when it hit 4.05.  current price and upside seems to be very limited.  I am not professional enought to discuss their overseas investment or interest......

personal opinion, honestly i am not a guru or anything in stock market.  but i do not want people to get burn.  if got opportunity/value creation, let us help each other to make money together ! huat ah !

 



paul1688      ( Date: 30-Sep-2010 10:03) Posted:

EPLiew made a valid point about "oversupply" can be a concern.  Based on strictly casual observation, I think the commercial properties are entering a phase of "segmentation" if the economy pick up is for real.  Companies with deeper pockets are shifting their location to the more prestigious buildings and if there is an oversupply, the downside are for commercial property landlords that hold sizeable old or poorer location buildings.  I recall a recent report that seems to infer top quality commercial properties in Singapore are anticipated to be in short supply relative to demand.  I guess time will tell.  The Singapore residential prop market has picked up considerably ahead of real economic growth - hence everyone talks about a bubble. To me, commercial property re-rating has lacked behind the general property market hence I am more cautiously optimistic about developers with strong commercial portfolio. Just my view.


 
 
sureesh40
    14-Oct-2010 13:33  
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$9 are you sure. You must be thinking that it will go back up to historic high in 2007, am I right?. But that was because there was very good sentiment towards property then, with wall street pushing property stocks high and with our very own IRs.

This time what would the catalyst be? 



kyjnjn      ( Date: 14-Oct-2010 10:47) Posted:

Haha.. my dream is even further. I am dreaming for $9.00!

 
 
kyjnjn
    14-Oct-2010 10:47  
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Haha.. my dream is even further. I am dreaming for $9.00!
 
 
sureesh40
    14-Oct-2010 10:35  
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When will it reach $6.50 My TP, is it still just a dream

starlene      ( Date: 14-Oct-2010 04:48) Posted:

TP $5.10..CIMB

 

 
starlene
    14-Oct-2010 04:48  
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TP $5.10..CIMB
 
 
epliew
    05-Oct-2010 15:33  
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thanks paul, the most important point i ask myself when i was monitoring this counter and purchased quite a few times at 3.7x range.  sold all when it hit 4.05.  current price and upside seems to be very limited.  I am not professional enought to discuss their overseas investment or interest......

personal opinion, honestly i am not a guru or anything in stock market.  but i do not want people to get burn.  if got opportunity/value creation, let us help each other to make money together ! huat ah !

 



paul1688      ( Date: 30-Sep-2010 10:03) Posted:

EPLiew made a valid point about "oversupply" can be a concern.  Based on strictly casual observation, I think the commercial properties are entering a phase of "segmentation" if the economy pick up is for real.  Companies with deeper pockets are shifting their location to the more prestigious buildings and if there is an oversupply, the downside are for commercial property landlords that hold sizeable old or poorer location buildings.  I recall a recent report that seems to infer top quality commercial properties in Singapore are anticipated to be in short supply relative to demand.  I guess time will tell.  The Singapore residential prop market has picked up considerably ahead of real economic growth - hence everyone talks about a bubble. To me, commercial property re-rating has lacked behind the general property market hence I am more cautiously optimistic about developers with strong commercial portfolio. Just my view.

 
 
pharoah88
    05-Oct-2010 15:13  
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Retail real estate sluggish: DTZ

SINGAPORE

Average prime rental rates along Orchard Road and Scotts Road remained unchanged in the third quarter, the firm said.

For the third straight quarter, gross rents of prime first-storey space in the area stayed at $39.70 per square foot per month.

Rents in other areas in the city continued to decline. Prime first storey rents in these areas fell by 0.8 per cent to $24.10 per square foot per month.

Monthly gross rents of prime first-storey retail space in the suburban malls, meanwhile, were unchanged at $33.60 per square foot per month.

DTZ said the new supply of retail space last year led to a competitive environment, which did not support any increase in rentals.

Some 1.3 million sq ft of new retail space became available last year.

Other than the newly-completed and pipeline supply that have put a lid on rentals, the two new integrated resorts also had an impact, DTZ said.

The integrated resorts siphoned off some demand for shopping as more people spend time and money at the casinos instead of at the malls, it noted.

But with a robust economic recovery taking place, DTZ said retail rents should increase gradually next year as the new supply is eventually absorbed.— Singapore’s retail real estate continues to be dogged by supply pressure, according to property consultancy DTZ.

 
 
paul1688
    30-Sep-2010 10:03  
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EPLiew made a valid point about "oversupply" can be a concern.  Based on strictly casual observation, I think the commercial properties are entering a phase of "segmentation" if the economy pick up is for real.  Companies with deeper pockets are shifting their location to the more prestigious buildings and if there is an oversupply, the downside are for commercial property landlords that hold sizeable old or poorer location buildings.  I recall a recent report that seems to infer top quality commercial properties in Singapore are anticipated to be in short supply relative to demand.  I guess time will tell.  The Singapore residential prop market has picked up considerably ahead of real economic growth - hence everyone talks about a bubble. To me, commercial property re-rating has lacked behind the general property market hence I am more cautiously optimistic about developers with strong commercial portfolio. Just my view.
 
 
chinastar
    29-Sep-2010 17:54  
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beautiful dream

epliew      ( Date: 16-Sep-2010 19:06) Posted:

if he can hold then nothing wrong....

E-war      ( Date: 16-Sep-2010 19:01) Posted:

Nothing wrong in dreaming, haha...


 
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