UniFiber System   

UniFiber

I'll be looking for this aug earnings first .

If no good, I'll go away.

Likewise, Abax and Stalk put their VIP clients money into UFS is not for fun .

 

U r right! Bystander ez to make noise only. If what I say is rubbish ignore it.

Im short term investor (no contra biz). At the moment not involved bcos Im watching the trend. It looks like turning. If big pic no good then forget abt mkt go for holiday. Come back in Oct.

 

Hey czerny , care to share with us which counters you're vested in.

Maybe we all can learn something from you.

Btw, it always easy for a 'bysider' to make noises on other ppls counters while own counters are all underwater.

 

SGX just announced this evening the resignation of the finance director and executive director from Unifibre. Will this affect the share price ?

 

Today .... Uni closed unchanged @ 26.5 why? bcos it didn't go up very much for the past week and vol also light. If 26.5 break then 25 here it comes but that won't happen not bcos of invisible hand but no people playing lah! I think all the BB in this counter passing here n there only. How come invisible hand come in only at 26.5 and not at 34.5? I think at that level there was invisible hammer! DMG wrote a whole bunch of crap (70+ pg) on this counter and none of it came true to date. Better dun read dan read n believe n cheong in n pay for it.

For $20k maybe better to try 1lot of Keppel Corp, 10 lots of Enggro, 40lots of China Ssine or ... What for wait for trees to grow, plant to build and ... 2010? Market can last so long meh??

Bet on winners. Dump the losers.

 

 

Hi tuntan8888,

I've one report from DMG date back Nov 2006.

Very comprehensive report .

If free , take a look below.

http://ir.zaobao.com/ufs/news/ufs091106.pdf

 

 

0703 GMT [Dow Jones] Straits Asia Resources (AJ1.SG) drops as much as 20% to 3-month low of S$1.07 before retracing to S$1.15 (14.2% decline) on heavy volume as investors spooked by disruption to firm''s Sebuku coal operation in South Kalimantan due to extended wet season. Company says "Force Majeure" beginning July 30 will affect its obligations to deliver coal to customers. Analyst at foreign bank says while company unlikely to meet this year''s coal output of 3.7 million tons, it may still benefit from disruption; "the lower output will certainly result in lower earnings for this year. But it also means less supply for the region, which translates to higher coal prices in the medium term. So, it''s good for its
2008 contract prices because it''s in negotiations right now with customers." Support at S$1 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement between 52-week high of S$1.68, low of S$0.585). (FKH)

Raining season is bad for coal but good for trees.

Next year, USF trees will grow faster , thicker and taller.

"PT Hutan Rindang Banua ("PT HRB"), a wholly owned Indonesian subsidiary of the Group, holds a forest concession right of 268,585 hectares in South Kalimantan, Indonesia."

 

 

 

 

 

Hi 888max,

Your research on Uni is impressive. I remember reading one brokerage house's good writeup on Uni earlier this year - fair value suppose double it present price. Do u have a copy ?

 

Today despite all the  bloodshed on the streets, Unifiber closed unchange @0.265cts.

Invisible hands at work.

Maybe their 2 shareholders hedge funds are behind it ,  to protect their own investments ????

 

Hi novicetrader , I play small small only lah.

Around 60k altogether.

But I like to read , search and find out more about the company that I'm vested.

Let us wait for this coming half year earnings results, in order to find out more  about their wood chips operations.

Cheers!!

 

Haha!! First you said UFS lacked the connection in Indonesia  and may have problem getting all the necessary govt approval & license to build the pulps mill. I've proof you wrong .

Now you asked  why didn't UFS seal the takeover with PT KK ??

Unifiber 'would have' sealed the PT KK deal if not for Prabowo's brother Hashim.  who came into the picture at the last minute. During that time, Bank Mandiri was chasing after Prabowo to settle PT KK outstanding debts of US$200 millions. Suddenly, Hashim came into the picture to help out his elder brother , Prabowo.

Hashim made his billions $$$ from the sale of this oil assets (Nations Energy) in Kazakhstan for US$1.91 billion (?1.5 billion) to China company CNOOC. He later came back to Indonesia  to bailout his brother with his extra cash.

Between good friend and own flesh & blood brother, you think you will listen to who?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

888max, if I am not wrong, you are into Unifiber in a BIG way. Just kaypo. Wish you all the best. For me, just only small time investor.

 

888max, I am sold on the fact sheets and arguments that you have put up, plus the background search that I have done. I am sure this counter is solid, its just the timing. I am back in. Lets hope the half year results are good. It has gone from a recent high of S$0.305 to a low (today) of S$0.27, ie. a bargain at a 11.5% discount from the high. 

On the other hand we cannot discount the argument that czerny puts up.

Very interesting counter to attract so many intelligent arguments. Worth the gamble.

 

Haha Hehe u have given us so much facts and u still miss the point leh! No doubt No 13 richest man is mentioned BUT he help to buy KK thus preventing Uni from buying at cheap sale price. So if lauw is close friend of owners of KK how come he didn't seal the deal? So much for being a friend and I am not so sure they are one big happy family. I still think that the guys in Uni will get ripped off when everything falls apart in due time of course!

 

 

 

UFS' second-largest shareholder Wisanggeni Lauw owns some 11% of  UFS shares. Wisanggeni Lauw  is also close associate of Probosutedjo:ex-General Suharto?s half-brother.  Prabowo Subianto, the owner of PT KK is the son-in-law of General Suharto. Hashim Djojohadikusumo, Prabowo younger brother recently bought the other 50% stakes in PT KK from Bank Mandiri.UFS newly appointed CEO Jaka Prasetya is happen to be Indonesia native born. They are all one happy family.

Although UFS is foreign own by a Swedish company, the inner operation and deals are done by local influence Indo businessmen. United Fiber will sell the pulp produced in the Kalimantan mill to CellMark AB, the world's biggest pulp trading company. UFS is now 50% own by Tektronix Industries Limited ("Tektronix"). The same management that run Tektronic , are also the directors of CellMark. PT KK and UFS pulps products need to sell to someone. That someone is Cellmark & CMEC.

UFS is currently running PT KK under OMA agreements for Prabowo. They are like brother helping each other. The main sponsor of this US$ 1 billion mega project pulps mill is China CMEC. Who is the 'big boss' behind  this CMEC. It is no other than the Central China govt themselves. You think Indo govt want to offend China out of nothing.

1)Back in 2005, when the new appointed forestry minister wanted to take back UFS forest concessions rights but Indo govt surprisely lost the case in Indo high court. UFS won. Why ??? Connection !!

2) Despite heavy protests by the local environmentalists 2yrs ago, to stop UFS from building tehir first  wood chip mill in south Kalimantan. UFS still managed to complete their wood chips mill without any problem and even got the local govt license to run it. why ??? Connection !!

Well !! With the facts I stated above, you still think Unifiber's connection is not good enough to do business in Indonesia.

 

Fyi, I've long done my homework?s before I buy into Unifiber.

Enough of talking, let wait patiently for the half year earnings before comment further.



 

 

Jim Rogers may be right but he is definitely not talking about Uni. Why? Bcos the situation in Indon is very different from USA and even China. Indon is so different that they attract very little FDI from the rest of the world. So in order to do business with them you have to partner a lot of people ie President, Vice President, Minister, and maybe the whole parliament dan u can build your pulp plant. Think about it. This is definitely long term business.

 

Jim Rogers prediction is coming true. Jim Rogers, one of the cofounders of the Quantum Fund with George Soros Notes from Jim Rogers 11/6/06 Talk The Chinese are called Communists, but they are some of the best capitalists in the world. When Chinese come to work, they ask not How many hours do I have to work. They want to know how many hours can I work. I expect many real estate speculators in China to go bust, but when they go bust, pick up the phone and buy. The single most important piece of advice for you: Teach them Chinese. My baby girl is perfectly fluent in Chinese. I got a nany who only speaks Chinese to her. People think she is native, until they see her. US Dollar is and has been the medium of exchange. 1987 - creditor nation. Now, the US is the largest debtor. We owe the world $13 trillion dollars. Foreign debts rising $1 trillion every 15 months. America's enemies are trying to figure this out. Our friends are saying maybe these guys are out of control. Figure out a way to prepare yourselves. When the pound sterling lost its status as the reserve currency of the world, especially for people with hard assets. My little girl is an American. She has a bank account. It is not an American bank account. It is a Swiss bank account. The bond market was in a big bull market 1981-2003. Sell all your bonds. Interest rates will be going up around the world for a very long time. Stocks were in a big bull in the 80s and 90s. Stocks too have peaked. At best, in a big trading range. Stocks are expensive with any classic valuation method - P/E, P/B value. Stocks are expensive. Very leery of most stocks. If you want to make lots of money, we have one now, commodities. Most people still can't spell commodities. 25 years ago, if you were to go to Madrid, Rome, and asked take me to the stock market, then they would ask you what is a stock market. In the UK, in the world, commodities are the same. Nobody knows what is a commodity. How long will it last? The shortest was 13 years. The longest. 18 years. 2013 and 2022. Always last a long time. It's about supply and demand. 1980s, 1990s everyone was calling you to invest in hedge funds, nobody invested in lead mines, and productive capacity. One lead mine opened in the last 25 years. No gigantic oil field discovered since 35 years. UK exporting oil for 35 years. With decades, UK/Malaysia importing. China exported 10 years ago. Now importing. Oil fields deplete. Mines deplete. 1998 - opened commodities fund. Up 223% since then. When commodities do well, stocks do badly. When stocks do well, commodities do poorly. Big setback in commodities during 9/11. World has plenty of stocks. Bankers are cranking them out everyday. You can't crank out a mine. 1979 - Saudi Oil was nationalized by Aramco Westerner's last audit said they had 245 billion barrels of oil. Today, they say they have 260 billion barrels of oil. Every year, the Saudis say they have 260 billion. It doesn't go up or go down. How can this be? 18 years in a row. Either you believe us or you don't. Something is wrong. Baby girl doesn't own single stocks or bonds. Happy only owning commodities. Learn some Chinese. Get out of dollars. Buy all the commodities you can. I own BHP Billiton. If you are really good at stocks, you will make much more money in stocks. If you know a natural gas company in Berlin will discover alot of gas, then you should buy it. Oil went up 10 times in Russia, some stocks did nothing. In eastern Europe, commodities outperformed stocks. Not everyone is good at stock picking. Stocks +300% in 70s. Went down 40% in 87. Went up 700%. Gold up 600%. 70s. After corrected, up 850%. Won't all correct at the same time. Uranium. Timber. Water. Uranium = +600, 700, 800% in last few years. Chinese 25 nuclear plants in next 25 years. Timber = Lumber for reasons. Water = Solve water problems, will be world's richest person. Wars east of red sea over oil. Wars west of red sea over water. Northern China. Northern India. Disappeared because water disappeared. No futures market in water. Huge fortunes to be made in water. My daughter owns silver and platinum. Her mother owns diamonds. Unadjusted for inflation. Prices of commodities below all time high. Sugar 85% below all time high Cotton 65 Coffee 60-70%

 

Hi investment, what the point ??

As you can see from the postings,  many investors here don't have the patience to wait till year 2010 for the pulps mill to complete.

 

United Fiber System Ltd, a Singapore-based forestry company, said a hedge fund affiliate of Morgan Stanley has agreed to buy US$200m of bonds and warrants, which will help the company build a pulp mill first planned in 2002. United Fiber on July13 also agreed to sell US$25m of bonds convertible into shares to the hedge fund, Hong Kong-based Abax Global Capital Ltd. After the securities are converted into shares, Abax Global will own 4.4% of United Fiber, the company said. Morgan Stanley owns a minority stake in Abax. The proceeds may help United Fiber build the US$1bn pulp mill in the Indonesian part of Borneo by 2010, eight years after it was planned. United Fiber had to delay constructing the plant because of a government move to cancel the company's right to use forest area for timber, and lack of funding. The Supreme Court stopped the government from cancelling the right in 2005.
United Fiber expects the construction to start by the end of the year. China National Machinery & Equipment Import & Export Corp, which is building the plant, will fund 80% of the mill. The pulp mill, which will be run by United Fiber's subsidiary PT Marga Buana Bumi Mulia, will have a capacity to produce 600,000 tonnes of bleached hardwood kraft pulp annually. United Fiber will sell the pulp produced in the Kalimantan mill to CellMark AB, the world's biggest pulp trading company, and China National Machinery. About 10% of the production will be sold in Indonesia. United Fiber and Abax are negotiating the terms of the bonds and warrants, the two companies said in a statement on July13. Lazard Asia Ltd is advising United Fiber.

 

With more lands allocated for palm oil plantations plus China soaring demand for timbers , very soon pulps price will shoot to the roof.

Timber shortage fuels panic buying

DIY enthusiasts hoping to repair storm-ravaged garden fences have been urged not to panic buy, as the UK's timber shortage leaves many unable to find affordable fencing panels.

Gardeners desperate to repair their fences have been rushing to snap up timber fencing panels, spurred on by a shortage of timber and the prospect of further price rises in the near future.

Poor harvesting conditions in Russia, Scandinavia and the Baltics, as well as soaring demand in China and Dubai, have resulted in a major supply shortage, with sawmills having to pay significantly more for timber and many DIY stores in the UK running out of stock.

However, many gardeners have been so determined to repair fences damaged by storms earlier this year that they are prepared to travel further afield and pay premium prices for panels.

The Fencing Contractors Association (FCA) is recommending that consumers postpone their repair plans and has warned the public not to "panic the prices up".

Wendy Baker, chief executive of the FCA, said that DIY enthusiasts had been exacerbating the situation by panic buying.

"It's a bit like a bread shortage," she told the Daily Mail. "Joe Public goes out and buys loads."

There are, however, signs of improvement on the horizon, as suppliers in Germany, Canada and Latvia are reportedly set to reduce the shortfall in the UK market.