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do u play short ?
bsiong ( Date: 10-Dec-2010 13:51) Posted:
Straits Asia extends decline; Mine delay worries
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| WRITTEN BY DOW JONES & CO, INC | | FRIDAY, 10 DECEMBER 2010 12:58 | Straits Asia Resources (AJ1.SG) is off 1.6% at $2.48, extending decline from $2.80 December high, down 11.4% since then, hurt by investors’ concern over delays to obtaining permit for Northern Leases area of its Sebuku mine. CIMB, which has Underperform rating, pushes back its entire production schedule for Northern Leases and now assumes the earliest production would start is FY12; other risks include limited reserves and execution risks.
But the house raises the target price to $2.27 from $2.01 on upgraded benchmark coal-price assumptions; says the outlook for the thermal coal market is underpinned by strong demand from China and India, driven by increased electricity demand and more coal-fired power plants coming onstream.
Kim Eng also cites SAR as a key beneficiary of expectations of robust Indonesia coal production growth, which industry watchers forecast at around 11%/annum in 2009-15.
Support tipped at $2.41 Nov. 18 low.
/theedgesingapore/i read i post ///
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Straits Asia extends decline; Mine delay worries
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| WRITTEN BY DOW JONES & CO, INC |
| FRIDAY, 10 DECEMBER 2010 12:58 |
Straits Asia Resources (AJ1.SG) is off 1.6% at $2.48, extending decline from $2.80 December high, down 11.4% since then, hurt by investors’ concern over delays to obtaining permit for Northern Leases area of its Sebuku mine. CIMB, which has Underperform rating, pushes back its entire production schedule for Northern Leases and now assumes the earliest production would start is FY12; other risks include limited reserves and execution risks.
But the house raises the target price to $2.27 from $2.01 on upgraded benchmark coal-price assumptions; says the outlook for the thermal coal market is underpinned by strong demand from China and India, driven by increased electricity demand and more coal-fired power plants coming onstream.
Kim Eng also cites SAR as a key beneficiary of expectations of robust Indonesia coal production growth, which industry watchers forecast at around 11%/annum in 2009-15.
Support tipped at $2.41 Nov. 18 low.
/theedgesingapore/i read i post ///
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Someone in the forum told me DMG is accumulating today at 2.50 ... don;t know if tmrw DMG will still be supporting at 2.50
any latest update for this counter?
There are many method of valuating a stock. Those valuation result is only valid for a certain time period. E.g. for TA, if you predict the price worth $1, you can't expect the price to forever worth $1. It is only valid for a certain time. Even in TA there are many different method of analyzing, different people can come out with different set of result.
For FA, there are also many different method e.g. DCF etc. Their result greatly differ from TA! If FA result is $3 but TA only $1 this is also possible! Because FA usually predict the intrinsic value. When you calculated that the stock worth $3, it doesn't mean it will become $3 the next day. It could take 10 year to return $3 ? It could also mean if you stay invested in this stock for 10 year, your total gain is $3 (this is the case for Discount dividend model).
It is also partly because different people have different price perception of the stock that causes the market price to move.
kyjnjn ( Date: 07-Dec-2010 23:46) Posted:
| Can anyone offer any explanation as to why substantial shareholder Sloane Robinson bought from open market with price range of 2.75 to 2.80 on 3 Dec if the share is not worth holding? Thank you. |
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Can anyone offer any explanation as to why substantial shareholder Sloane Robinson bought from open market with price range of 2.75 to 2.80 on 3 Dec if the share is not worth holding? Thank you.
On last friday, this stock makes an bearish reversal! The stock might continue this bearish trend!
read my analysis on StraitsAsia here
On Tuesday, StraitsAsia broke the support at $2.59 and closed at $2.55 with HIGH volume of 15.15 million shares traded.
A
falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous
shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a
continuation of a bearish trend. The two candles preceding the
falling window were black, which makes this pattern even more bearish.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create
three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Both RSI & MACD are bearish as MACD perform a “cross down” today.
Important Resistance of StraitsAsia: $2.59
Immediate Support of StraitsAsia: $2.48
Currently prices are resisted by the 20 days MA at $2.59
StraitsAsia has been under heavy selling pressure for the past 2 days and we would expect the fire to ease anytime from now.
We would be looking at $2.39 as the entry price due to the following:
1) Uptrend line support
2) 50 days MA support
3) Major support which has been testing many times.
However do wait for consolidation first before entry since it is very dangerous to catch a falling knife.
SEE ANALYSIS FOR OSIM
If tmr still down down 
confirm 3 black crows 
des_khor ( Date: 07-Dec-2010 14:47) Posted:
Nomura downgrades Straits Asia Resources (AJ1.SG) to Reduce from Buy, cuts target to $2.21 from $2.80 after lowering FY11, FY12 earnings estimates by 27%, 10% respectively to reflect lower volumes from Sebuku mine, higher costs next year. “We believe the market is ignoring operational risks - both on volumes and margins (cost increase on oil) - and there exists significant downside risks to street estimates and valuations,” says house. Adds, even if Indonesia-based coal miner gets regulatory approval for work on Sebuku mine over next 2-3 months, it won’t be able to mine significant volumes from Northern leases area in FY11. Says recent price rally driven more by optimism than fundamentals; “Northern leases permits remain a moving target, and we’re building in another few months delay.” Shares flat at $2.75.
Bluevaio ( Date: 07-Dec-2010 14:27) Posted:
| Which MFT? What's the target price?
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Probably they are pushing down the price so that can buy more ba!
Nomura downgrades Straits Asia Resources (AJ1.SG) to Reduce from Buy, cuts target to $2.21 from $2.80 after lowering FY11, FY12 earnings estimates by 27%, 10% respectively to reflect lower volumes from Sebuku mine, higher costs next year. “We believe the market is ignoring operational risks - both on volumes and margins (cost increase on oil) - and there exists significant downside risks to street estimates and valuations,” says house. Adds, even if Indonesia-based coal miner gets regulatory approval for work on Sebuku mine over next 2-3 months, it won’t be able to mine significant volumes from Northern leases area in FY11. Says recent price rally driven more by optimism than fundamentals; “Northern leases permits remain a moving target, and we’re building in another few months delay.” Shares flat at $2.75.
Bluevaio ( Date: 07-Dec-2010 14:27) Posted:
| Which MFT? What's the target price?
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Which MFT? What's the target price?
Because one of the MFT downgrade the TP ma !!
Why the BIG SELL DOWN these 2 days? Any idea?
2.767 vol 1640 married deal , good sign tt it will chiong again ???!!!
watermelon ( Date: 26-Nov-2010 14:16) Posted:
wonder will it hit $3 by end of the year 2010??
enghou ( Date: 23-Nov-2010 18:57) Posted:
Straits Asia - Upgrade To Outperform
Better Risk Reward
We upgrade SAR to OUTPERFORM from Neutral, with potential
upside higher to peers if the Northern Lease is granted within the
next three months. We see SAR giving high risk, high return
exposure to the sector. In our best case, we see SAR rerated to
S$3.5 based on 18x P/E in FY11E.
● Our earnings forecast assumes that the permit is granted in the
next few months and production at SBK mine could improve from
1mnt to 2 mnt YoY in 2011. We cut our earnings forecast by 2%
for FY11, a small cut relative to peers, as our original forecast had
taken into account slow startup of the project.
● Catalysts to the share price are rising spot coal prices and the
issuance of borrow-use permit by the Forestry Ministry for the
Northern Lease.
● If there is no output from SBK mine in 2011, we see 32%
downside to our earnings forecast, and SAR’s P/E would be at
18.7x. Our target price of S$3.1 is set based on 18x P/E assuming
a 70% chance that the Northern Lease mine would start in 2011.
Target price of S$3.1 assuming 70% of Northern Lease start
in FY11
At the current share price, SAR trades at a discount to P/E of its peers
of between 13x-15x. Assuming that the permit is delayed by one year
(which is unlikely), we see 32% downside to our earnings forecast,
and SAR would be valued at a P/E of 18.7x at the current share price.
However, if the permit is received, we see SAR to be potentially
rerated up to S$3.5 assuming that SAR then is rerated along with its
peers to our target P/E of 18x in 2011. Our target price of S$3.1 is set
based on 18x P/E, assuming a 70% chance that the Northern Lease
mine would start in 2011.
Source: Credit Suisse
Make love more, don't make more enemies |
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seems to be going down, losing steam
Straits Asia Resources: Ready for take-off; Upgrade to BUY
Summary: Straits Asia Resources (SAR) has successfully navigated through a challenging 2010 and we believe that the group is now ready to leverage on an upturn in 2011. Thermal coal prices have been rising and experts predict continued upward pressure amid tight demand and supply fundamentals. China ’s restocking ahead of winter has been driving demand, while Indonesian supplies remain constricted as wet weather has hampered production, resulting in higher thermal coal prices. We expect margin compression in FY10 to reverse in FY11. Our projections imply a 141% surge in FY11 net profit, driven by (i) a recovery of thermal coal prices, (ii) increased production volumes, and (iii) easing cost pressure. We have fine-tuned our assumptions, lifting our fair value estimate to S$3.13 (previously S$2.24). Upgrade to BUY. Key risks include prolonged wet weather and continued USD/SGD weakness. (Lee Wen Ching)
OCBC Investment Research
/icameireadiposted FYI only/not an invitation to trade/
