Olam Intl   

OLAM_OLAM

As for reputation, we dont know his exposure. For all we know he exposure could be tiny compared with his entire portfolio. He would not lose sleep over a couple of million marked to market paper loss.

 

Does the answer to my question really matter whether he is invested himself or his private bankers did the investment on his behalf? Please explain.

Obfuscate      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 16:47) Posted: Jim Rogers has said it before in his many interviews (eg from Bloomberg archives) that he prefers to invest in commodities directly and not thru another company. Its much simpler that way because it is not dependent on any company management (only on supply-demand, politics  and weather) and I agree. He has never divulged his exact positions on commodities, only saying he is invested in all the agri products.  But when he makes a public statement such as the one on Olam, one can never tell whether he is invested himself or his private bankers did the investment on his behalf. I suspect it is the latter bcz this is the first time he is quoted as an investor in  a company. If you have earlier statements from JR saying he has an interest in another company, pls elucidate. If you  listen to his interviews too often you may be confused because his postions are fluid, ie one interview he may say he is short USD, the next one, some weeks later, he may say he is  long USD.  counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 16:11) Posted: If you relax the simplifying assumption of equal importance, then I would say that “it is important to get it right most of the time, especially on occasions when it matters.” It is public knowledge that Jim Rogers is a shareholder of Olam. Taking up the rights issue is not merely about where to put his money, but it is also a matter that affects his reputation to some extent. You claim that Jim Rogers does not need to tell people the composition of his portfolio. However, he is now publicly telling people that he is taking up the bonds rights issue. In other words, he is doing something which you think he is not obliged to do. What is your view on his confidence level in Olam?

 

Jim Rogers has said it before in his many interviews (eg from Bloomberg archives) that he prefers to invest in commodities directly and not thru another company. Its much simpler that way because it is not dependent on any company management (only on supply-demand, politics  and weather) and I agree. He has never divulged his exact positions on commodities, only saying he is invested in all the agri products. 

But when he makes a public statement such as the one on Olam, one can never tell whether he is invested himself or his private bankers did the investment on his behalf. I suspect it is the latter bcz this is the first time he is quoted as an investor in  a company. If you have earlier statements from JR saying he has an interest in another company, pls elucidate.

If you  listen to his interviews too often you may be confused because his postions are fluid, ie one interview he may say he is short USD, the next one, some weeks later, he may say he is  long USD. 

counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 16:11) Posted: If you relax the simplifying assumption of equal importance, then I would say that ?it is important to get it right most of the time, especially on occasions when it matters.? It is public knowledge that Jim Rogers is a shareholder of Olam. Taking up the rights issue is not merely about where to put his money, but it is also a matter that affects his reputation to some extent. You claim that Jim Rogers does not need to tell people the composition of his portfolio. However, he is now publicly telling people that he is taking up the bonds rights issue. In other words, he is doing something which you think he is not obliged to do. What is your view on his confidence level in Olam? Obfuscate      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 14:27) Posted: My point is one good  trade with $1m profit will cover 10 small loss trades of $100k each. So it is not the case of being right most of the time, but getting it right when it matters. Nassim Taleb who specialises in options buy only way out of the money options bcz they are cheap. He can afford to buy many and most will expire worthless but  those options that gets exercised will give him  windfall returns. Taleb is famous for his contrarian trade ideas

 

ok. thks.

 

Dear Derek,

The bonds can be sold through the underwriters (the 3 banks) anytime. However, we are not allowed to sell the warrants in the holding period.

derekchong      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 12:01) Posted:     Thanks counter, How  and where to sell the bond?. Can we sell the warrants during the 3 yrs holding period.?

 

If you relax the simplifying assumption of equal importance, then I would say that

“it is important to get it right most of the time, especially on occasions when it matters.”

It is public knowledge that Jim Rogers is a shareholder of Olam. Taking up the rights issue is not merely about where to put his money, but it is also a matter that affects his reputation to some extent.

You claim that Jim Rogers does not need to tell people the composition of his portfolio. However, he is now publicly telling people that he is taking up the bonds rights issue. In other words, he is doing something which you think he is not obliged to do.

What is your view on his confidence level in Olam?

Obfuscate      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 14:27) Posted: My point is one good  trade with $1m profit will cover 10 small loss trades of $100k each. So it is not the case of being right most of the time, but getting it right when it matters. Nassim Taleb who specialises in options buy only way out of the money options bcz they are cheap. He can afford to buy many and most will expire worthless but  those options that gets exercised will give him  windfall returns. Taleb is famous for his contrarian trade ideas. counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:47) Posted: I don't get your point

 

My point is one good  trade with $1m profit will cover 10 small loss trades of $100k each. So it is not the case of being right most of the time, but getting it right when it matters.

Nassim Taleb who specialises in options buy only way out of the money options bcz they are cheap. He can afford to buy many and most will expire worthless but  those options that gets exercised will give him  windfall returns. Taleb is famous for his contrarian trade ideas.

counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:47) Posted: I don't get your point. Obfuscate      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:44) Posted: Jim Rogers is a billionaire so he can be wrong on many small trades  but right on the big ones and still make decent profit. He does not need to tell people the composition of his portfolio

 

Good time to short it down to 1.50 now. Temasek is not buying anymore.

 

Temasek incresed the stake to 19% today.

 

Think not much impact since Temasek already said that they will take the reminding unsubscribe Rights . 

 

 

Kensonic77      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 12:19) Posted: Nothing to watch now.  The real action will start on 7 Jan 2012

 

Nothing to watch now.  The real action will start on 7 Jan 2012

 

 

It is a matter of preference. For me, I don?t have the time to research on so many cos so easiest is just buy the whole equity index. In fact, the vast majority of equity portfolio managers cannot beat the market index so I envy your record on Olam and if you can replicate your record for the entire portfolio it is even better.

I prefer futures because of the versatility but beware of the leverage risk. I can go long or short on equity indices, interest rates and commodities (agri, metals and energy). Futures are also cheaper to trade and the market is open for up to 23 hrs on some. Eg one contract of the Mar 2013 mini S& P500 with less than US$5,000 margin will give me exposure to US$50 x 1412 = US$70,600 (ie US$50 for every one point move) if executed now. It takes less than a minute to execute for US$10 commission. (For un-leveraged position I need to keep US$70,600 in account.)

Many of these exchange traded future contracts are very liquid and over a million contracts are traded daily for mini S& P. The contracts are standard and  since the exchange is my counterparty there is  very minimal  counterparty risk.  There is also a full size S& P future where one point = US$250. Then there are also others like Dow Jones, Russell 2000, FTSE100, DAX, CAC40. In Asia the Japanese (Nikkei, TOPIX), HK (Hang Seng, HSCEI), China?s FTSE A50, MSCI Korea and Taiwan equity indices are also liquid. MSCI Free Sg (aka SIMSCI) index is less liquid but still see ~10,000 contracts traded daily.

Of course there are also ETFs on various equity indices, these are generally not leveraged and will trace the underlying index (or sub-index) very closely with just minimal admin fees charged.

counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 10:09) Posted: Why the preference of futures over equities? Do futures have significant advantages over equities? And why not both futures and equities? I have always interested in futures. Make one look cool isn't? My apology for the many questions.

 

 

 

Thanks counter,

How  and where to sell the bond?.

Can we sell the warrants during

the 3 yrs holding period.?

 

Does this mean he gets it wrong most of the time?

bokkie      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:54) Posted: check on internet what price WB bought GE shares and how much he sold it. counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:47) Posted: I don't get your point

 

Warren Buffet has never made  a loss? Are you kidding?

bokkie      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:50) Posted: Warren Buffet just buy and dont sell, how to make loss?? counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 10:29) Posted: You are right indeed. He is only human. But then Warren Buffett has not got everything right either. I think a more important question is whether he is right most of the time. What do you think?

 

check on internet what price WB bought GE shares and how much he sold it.

counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:47) Posted: I don't get your point. Obfuscate      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:44) Posted: Jim Rogers is a billionaire so he can be wrong on many small trades  but right on the big ones and still make decent profit. He does not need to tell people the composition of his portfolio

 

Inflation is on his side with time

bokkie      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:50) Posted: Warren Buffet just buy and dont sell, how to make loss?? counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 10:29) Posted: You are right indeed. He is only human. But then Warren Buffett has not got everything right either. I think a more important question is whether he is right most of the time. What do you think?

 

Warren Buffet just buy and dont sell, how to make loss??

counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 10:29) Posted: You are right indeed. He is only human. But then Warren Buffett has not got everything right either. I think a more important question is whether he is right most of the time. What do you think?   bokkie      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 10:09) Posted: what I know is JR is not right about commodity in 201

 

I don't get your point.

Obfuscate      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:44) Posted: Jim Rogers is a billionaire so he can be wrong on many small trades  but right on the big ones and still make decent profit. He does not need to tell people the composition of his portfolio. counter      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 10:29) Posted: You are right indeed. He is only human. But then Warren Buffett has not got everything right either. I think a more important question is whether he is right most of the time. What do you think?

 

What do you want to find out? I can 'try' to answer your question.

derekchong      ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 11:31) Posted: I also not very sure . I am like the blind chicken caught the worm.