SPC   

SPC

i believe so too, singaporegal..  thanks for the insight..  I will hang on then...

 

i should add that at 4.70 the PE is 8.5 which normally means a very good buy

 

Volumes are just slightly above average today.

Could be uptrending now.

 

hi giantlow, I am new kid for this forum, but have been watching this thread for some time.  Like you  I have vested in Dec 06 when the warrant was at 6 cts... and then saw it tumbled to 1.5 while being kiasu I bought more, hoping to even down ( to 4cts) but finally chicken out at 2cts.. I certain share your stress for the last few weeks, watch weather reports etc.  I am now heaving sigh of relief as I managed to sell some today and cut lost but I think I could make back the loss if I hang on to the rest till it hits 5cts?

personally I really believe SPC is last of blue chips waiting for their rally and have no doubt it will go up in the medium term..  the question is will it go past 4.70 by March 5th?

 

giantlow,

I doubt very much that there will be a reversal of provisions.

• Jul/Aug inventories have all been cleared by now.
• Drilling expenses of 'dry' wells will not result in oil sprouting out of these holes. Anyway, when the site is considered 'dry', the wells are 'plugged and abandoned'. 

That is the reality of the situation.

On a positive note, SPC's closing price of 4.36 today translates to P/E of 7.9X FY06 earnings.

 

FY06 results were dragged down by the following:

• Write down of $11.5 mil for impairment of inventory during 3Q. That was when crude oil (feedstock for the refinery) rose in Jul/Aug to up to USD78 per bbl and in Sep, plunged to around the USD 60 per bbl level.
• $11.0 mil drilling expense for exploration activities that turned out 'dry'.

The above cost SPC about 4.36cts in eps for FY06.

The 20cts ordinary divident was expected....but the 15cts special div was a pleasant surprise.

For FY07, higher contribution can be expected from upstream activities (FY06 upstream profit was approx 2.8cts per sh) when yang production comes on stream. Based on 2006 oil prices, my estimate of Oyang's contribution, if it was production the full year, will add abot 3.8 cts per share to the bottomline.

 

A surge is highly imminent, maybe a gapping one.

 

Hm... there seem to be pessimists on this company. Well let's see........:) 

 

this could be a classic case of "big bath" provisioning

maybe the auditors will reverse a large part of the provisioning later



victorian, u seem very pessimistic eh.

 

Higher high, higher low.  Still room to extend.  :)

 

Checked this counter and there was quite a large volume snapped up (317K) last minutes before mkt ceases. Perhaps drawn by the 0.35 dividend...

 

hello victorian,35cents dividend ,does it mean the market will start at $4.7 tomorrow?

 

any comments by elf, singaporegal, victorian?

 

some areas of concern

provision for impairment for trade recievables in 2006 compared to a huge write back for 2005

write down of inventories to NRV

provision for impairment of investment in joint venture

 

nickyng is a diehard shortist eh!!! hahaha

35cents dividend is very exciting.

revenues increased but profits dropped/

i dun know whether to be happy or not leh.

i bought the warrents at 5cents, today it recovered slightly to 3.5cents.

 

err...with profit down 29%(taking into consideration downtime of cracker for maintanence) i thk wont be too much of the excitement for SPC even with CD of 35cts :D non-event i guess..perhaps worth a SHORT tomor? hee..

 

Hm.....just Livermore will do actually .............:). This forum is not just just helping others. I hope we all keep a "lookout" for one another and warn when others might attempt to do something rash. Don't wish to see people get "burnt"..............

All the best.....

 

Livermore...

You have just been conferred the honour by the Highest of All Highness of The High.

 

Billec...

How much higher it will go is anyone's guess.

If I am not wrong, warrants themselves are not documents of ownership of the shares, but only a right of buying the shares at the stated price (when it is "in the money").  If  you exercise before XD, I suppose you  will  be entitled to the fat div.

 

How come my nick is now senior as I never changed my nick??