Post Reply
561-580 of 4826
SCFI up by 74 pts most likely peak season surcharge transpacific got 50% through and some part of the Europe GRI. But again all this is spot rate data, 2Q container demand seem to be rebounding from 1Q dismal data. Now time to see if fleet renewal program and ELP cost saving program would result in how much cost saving. This year result is all hinged on how much lower the operating cost can be lowered to returned ship to black. Revenue most likely remained the same as last year since demand not much improvement compared YoY due to overcapacity. 2014 would be better due to P3 operating in 2Q = less aggressive pricing in market and little new built coming on line. By the way NOL in the last 2 years was in fact doing group restructuring exercise getting rid of capacity/manpower redundancy and resetting slot cost through fleet renewal etc. Top 3 carriers are already running in leaner form and cut cost to bone long before NOL so can make money. By the end of this year, most of the major east to west charters ships would be returned to owners and reduced operating cost to the bone. We would all know by next wed night whether army col would succeed in arresting the loss making trend so keep finger cross and stay out of ship till then.
surprise on upside? Europe & US recovery?
top 3 Maersk, MSC, CMA all earn money in 2012. What NOL was doing? lose till selling the headquarter.
This year, no more headquarter to sell loh. The General has to knock Mdm Ho door and ask for money loh.
sgng123 ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 17:26) Posted:
|
Announcement is PSS is delayed to 15 aug. GRI is delayed to 1 sept. Both was announced for 1 Aug.
sgng123 ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 22:32) Posted:
|
Think lot of small retail shortists also thinking the same lol. Just don get hurt if NOL surprise on the upside. US and Europe economy are both starting to recover, hot fund moving out of asia stock market and into Dow jones / European stock market. Tonight at 8.30pm US job data report would kick off 3Q recovery story in US.
I shall queue at $1......
ynnek1267 ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 16:27) Posted:
|
high likely mission fail.
That why it is 50/50 on ship result next week, currently no one dared to buy/short today and maybe next week too. Too dangerous to trade till earning prospect is clearer. It is also a test to the army col ceo to whether his plan to return profitability can pass. Just monitor but no trade safety more important.
Jap carriers reported profits but box ships units are either flat or loss at core levels. Jap have yen advantage and domestic transport. Csav had a one time gain of 74m
sgng123 ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 22:23) Posted:
|
Checked APL website and found GRI US $400 on transpacific on 1 August, followed by another PSS US$400 on 15 August. Both rate hikes are applicable to spot rate customers and service contract. Might see further rate hike in 3Q to boost revenue.
Chilean carrier CSAV reported positive result for 2Q, right now almost all carriers are reporting positive 2Q result. Cross finger next week for ship result, might see positive result.
7 Aug, day of breaking 1 dollar. Waahahahahahahaha
Europe manufacturing PMI returned to growth, even spain and Greece showing improving reading although still below 50. Ship low volume traded, investors still on sideline and waiting for 2Q result so NOL investors need to be patience. If US job data on Friday see big gain then maybe ship would start moving.
For those still holding can patiently wait out for a few more months then u start to see ur fruit riping for pick next year. Top 3 carriers forming P3 in 2Q14 most likely had to take out excess capacity to balance out the new builts coming out this year, most likely would announce capacity withdrawn in major trading lanes in Oct or later. Else very difficult to gain any efficiency gain by joining P3 if all still releasing excess capacity to market. P3 alliance is a way for the top 3 carriers to enter into a peace deal without losing market share. Core earning for NOL had to be in the 3 digit figure to post positive net profit but again the spot rate erosion we see in May/June do not reflect the actual demand/supply as I provided in earlier post load factor for 2Q rebound from 1Q distress level. that why I don like to use spot rate to determine ship value as it correspond more to carrier behaviour than actual demand/supply. In 1Q13 spot rate was high but demand/supply side take a big hit due to US tax hike/spending cuts, result in shitty result for ship.
oh yes I forgot about it lol then it is 3 days trading week.
heisuke ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 07:48) Posted:
|
If NOL core has slight loss, net loss (EBITDA - Drepreciation (1Q13 - 85M) - elimination (23M) - tax(about 30M)) will still be at the -100M levels.
Basically for NOL to net profit, Core must be above 150M / quarter.
Expecting a lost in 2Q2013, only loose lesser then very good already. Refer to Cosco Wan Si Tong posting, he posted wrongly in Cosco posting, that post indicate container liners still loosing in 2Q but should be closing the margin of lost. Anyway NOL still a buy to me. Accumulated already. LOL
heisuke ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 07:48) Posted:
|
Hari Raya holiday on the 8th right?
sgng123 ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 01:22) Posted:
|
Still got 1 trading day before market close for national day on Friday, ship result out on wed nite so got thur to go. But again don get hope too high, these few days trading volume is very low. US 2Q GDP 1.7% beat economist estimate but 1Q GDP downgraded to 1%, no wonder ship 1Q result got smashed lol. Look like Carriers got their transpacific peak surcharge > 50% in bag, now seeing how long this extra revenue gona hold on, hope it is a non event and business as usual. 2013 is more or less over for ship, next year would be a better year for container shipping due to overcapacity easing and US/Europe economy recovering.
After results release market closed for holiday
sgng123 ( Date: 31-Jul-2013 19:02) Posted:
|
Japanese shipping companies MOL, K line, NYK all reported profit for current quarter. However since their business revenue is more broad based and not purely container shipping so not a good guide for ship result next week. Pray hard this time round the cost saving effort and fleet renewal program pay off and returned ship to positive core earning.