Neptune Orient L Rg   

NOL

http://ciw.drewry.co.uk/trade_route_analysis/supplydemand-asia-north-europe-5/#.Uf5LBN_2Prc

Updated demand/supply data from drewry. The collapse in Europe spot rate in May/June might be just a smoke screen, average load factor( Demand/Supply) for Apr is 88% and May is 96%. June data might be out later in Sep but from the starting comment saying that July container ships are fully load, most likely June load factor is very close to 99%. This what I called distortion in spot rate market and actual demand/supply situation. From data carriers had taken out enough capacity to make sure ships are at max load capacity, so for now carrier discipline is now the norm. 2Q NOL result currently stand at 50/50 either a good profit or break even.

 

Cannot anyhow say lah.   NOL is still good bet even for newbies.

Lets study the below figures, at least the profit of US$76 million is more than 3.2% if its revenues for the first qtr 2013.   If the next qrt is better, I think NOL would revisit $1.30 and above.  

NOL	1Q13	1Q12
Revenue (US$m)	2,371	2378
Net Profit (US$m)	76	(254)

 

So you are trying to tell us to sell?

If we are not selling then why not you borrow share and sell for us? We can lend it to you through the bank.

Ha ha ha

ynnek1267      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 20:54) Posted: New investors have zero reason to invest NOL now, just stay away and watch show. Existing investors can only pray hard that NOL can turn black in coming quarter. Otherwise, right is waiting for you, don't forget the billion of notes are counting with interest in coming years and will eat the cash flow even faster if the new vessels cannot turn current net loss situation. Zero reason for you to step in to NOL till they can show that they are at the same way with top 3 which run the business efficiently and ecomically.

 

New investors have zero reason to invest NOL now, just stay away and watch show.

Existing investors can only pray hard that NOL can turn black in coming quarter. Otherwise, right is waiting for you, don't forget the billion of notes are counting with interest in coming years and will eat the cash flow even faster if the new vessels cannot turn current net loss situation.

Zero reason for you to step in to NOL till they can show that they are at the same way with top 3 which run the business efficiently and ecomically.

 

The fact are top 3 in the industry earn money in 2012, NOL lose money till selling headquarter and selling existing vessels and signing unreasonable high charter rate with the buyers of existing vessels in return of the cash.

NOL has used out all th way to generate cash from their assets in 2012. 1Q 2013 post ugly result again, if situation continually, the general has to knock tamasek door to ask for permission & suport to issue right again.

The share on your hand will be diluted further.

NOL has operation issue like previous chartered semicon, competitors earn money, the counter lose money and keep on diluting the share by issuing right to compensate the loss.

At the end, Temasek will just sell NOL away with very cheap price like they sold chartered semicon to global foundry.

sgng123      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 15:24) Posted: I did post a article on spot rate market and it is in a dismal state, shippers all moved away from it due to too much movement and trading volume almost dip into the deep hole. Imagine u just need all the carriers to gang up and  raise price on open market then spot rate can jump to  ridiculous level but if no taker for it then no impact on revenue. Following demand/supply data more realistics, cos no demand even if ur spot rate is $10 000 but no taker and u still lose money cos ur ship is not filled up lose on the oil money/labour. NOL dig out SCFI cos they need to find a scapegoat to answer for the poor  judgement of management for not anticipating the weak demand after CNY by releasing more capacity than needed, typical of Singaporean management finding scapegoat instead of owning up and resign. No shippers would be in the right mind to  book  container space in the open space cos they all know this spot  rate market is all but a scheme to hook them  up for overpricing. Directly booking with liners make more sense as rate is stable and can get discount if big customers. Can just compare with fixed rate and float rate housing loan, which one do u go for ? no need to think must be fixed rate lol.  pseudo      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 10:18) Posted: Don't agree on not following spot rates. Nol in audio brief already indicated that they want more spot exposure. Also 1q report they dig out scfi chart to trend to justify

 

U mean there is actually a plan??!?!!!???

Hahahahaha....... 

stockpicker      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 15:12) Posted: dun bet on the 10 year cycle.  Bernanke has changed the game plan.  the cycle is now shorter.

 

Cheap Credit FTW!!!!!!

stockpicker      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 17:44) Posted: did a net debt-ebitda ratio on most of the sg companies including the blue  chips..  shock to find out that  bulk (more than 50%) of the companies have  debt ratio of over 4.0 which will normally sound alarms.. It is so easy to borrow money nowadays and many companies are  " working slaves" for the banks.  They  can never be able to redeem  their debts if the economy does not " fly" ..

 

did a net debt-ebitda ratio on most of the sg companies including the blue  chips..  shock to find out that  bulk (more than 50%) of the companies have  debt ratio of over 4.0 which will normally sound alarms.. It is so easy to borrow money nowadays and many companies are  " working slaves" for the banks.  They  can never be able to redeem  their debts if the economy does not " fly" ..

 

the next financial crisis would be asia due to asset bubble bursting as a result of global interest hike. all should know how ridiculous high property price in Singapore compare to salary earned. another 1997 crisis just round the corner, maybe 2015/2016 mine guess.

stockpicker      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 15:12) Posted: dun bet on the 10 year cycle.  Bernanke has changed the game plan.  the cycle is now shorter.

 

Golden rule is be patience and wait out for storm to be over soon daybreak and we can trade again. Currently too much uncertainty and no BB in market to move ship.

 

I did post a article on spot rate market and it is in a dismal state, shippers all moved away from it due to too much movement and trading volume almost dip into the deep hole. Imagine u just need all the carriers to gang up and  raise price on open market then spot rate can jump to  ridiculous level but if no taker for it then no impact on revenue. Following demand/supply data more realistics, cos no demand even if ur spot rate is $10 000 but no taker and u still lose money cos ur ship is not filled up lose on the oil money/labour. NOL dig out SCFI cos they need to find a scapegoat to answer for the poor  judgement of management for not anticipating the weak demand after CNY by releasing more capacity than needed, typical of Singaporean management finding scapegoat instead of owning up and resign. No shippers would be in the right mind to  book  container space in the open space cos they all know this spot  rate market is all but a scheme to hook them  up for overpricing. Directly booking with liners make more sense as rate is stable and can get discount if big customers. Can just compare with fixed rate and float rate housing loan, which one do u go for ? no need to think must be fixed rate lol. 

pseudo      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 10:18) Posted: Don't agree on not following spot rates. Nol in audio brief already indicated that they want more spot exposure. Also 1q report they dig out scfi chart to trend to justify. sgng123      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 10:03) Posted: Making bet based on BDI and spot rate movement is risky due to the fact spot rate movement don correspond to actual demand and supply situation. Majority of container trade are based on fixed yearly contract between shippers and carriers, spot rate contract only come into play when carriers need to squeeze in extra cargo to maximise load factor or to gain market share. Check out the link below, this would give a better view of actual demand/supply need. http://ciw.drewry.co.uk/trade_route_analysis/supplydemand-asia-wcna-5/#.Ufxkrd_2Prc

 

dun bet on the 10 year cycle.  Bernanke has changed the game plan.  the cycle is now shorter.

 

On average, there is a financial crisis every 10 years.

1987 crisis

1997 crisis

2008 crisis

2017 or 2018 crisis again??

So, by the time NOL 'recovered' fully (assuming it does recover!), the world is in another financial crisis again. Hahahahaha!!! 

 

Short term follow nav lol

halleluyah      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 10:41) Posted: No matter how, at the current px will "pau" profitted in the mid to long term. I asume tis ship wun sink below $1. 1.03 is a gd px to long. Am vested vry small only. Waiting to add.

 

No matter how, at the current px will "pau" profitted in the mid to long term. I asume tis ship wun sink below $1. 1.03 is a gd px to long. Am vested vry small only. Waiting to add.

 

Don't agree on not following spot rates. Nol in audio brief already indicated that they want more spot exposure. Also 1q report they dig out scfi chart to trend to justify.

sgng123      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 10:03) Posted: Making bet based on BDI and spot rate movement is risky due to the fact spot rate movement don correspond to actual demand and supply situation. Majority of container trade are based on fixed yearly contract between shippers and carriers, spot rate contract only come into play when carriers need to squeeze in extra cargo to maximise load factor or to gain market share. Check out the link below, this would give a better view of actual demand/supply need. http://ciw.drewry.co.uk/trade_route_analysis/supplydemand-asia-wcna-5/#.Ufxkrd_2Prc

 

On the bright side bunker is low. 2q last year was 691/mt. The jap carriers lowest reported was 606/mt.

Neftech deal for fuel additives (50 ships) may push bunker lower still. Though we won't know the direct savings from this.

A flat result or small loss is not totally out of picture. Profit is a long shot though with high Drepreciation and taxes.

sgng123      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 21:32) Posted: SCFI up by 74 pts most likely peak season surcharge transpacific got 50% through and some part of the Europe GRI. But again all this is spot rate data, 2Q container demand seem to be rebounding from 1Q dismal data. Now time to see if fleet renewal program and ELP cost saving program would result in how much cost saving. This year result is all hinged on how much lower the operating cost can be lowered to returned ship to black. Revenue most likely remained the same as last year since demand not much improvement compared YoY  due to overcapacity. 2014 would be better due to P3 operating in 2Q = less aggressive pricing in market and little new built coming on line. By the way NOL in the last 2 years was in fact doing group restructuring exercise  getting rid of capacity/manpower redundancy and resetting slot cost through fleet renewal etc. Top 3 carriers are already running in leaner form and cut cost to bone long before NOL so can make money. By the end of this year, most of the major east to west charters ships would be returned to owners and reduced operating cost to the bone. We would all know by next wed night whether army col would succeed in arresting the loss making trend so keep finger cross and stay out of ship till then.

 

Making bet based on BDI and spot rate movement is risky due to the fact spot rate movement don correspond to actual demand and supply situation. Majority of container trade are based on fixed yearly contract between shippers and carriers, spot rate contract only come into play when carriers need to squeeze in extra cargo to maximise load factor or to gain market share. Check out the link below, this would give a better view of actual demand/supply need.

http://ciw.drewry.co.uk/trade_route_analysis/supplydemand-asia-wcna-5/#.Ufxkrd_2Prc

 

I expect NOL 2Q2013 to lost. Just how much. 1H2013 sucks for shipping and ship building. BDI below 1000 only in  June 2013 lifted above 1000. Shanghai Container rates dropping did not go up in 1H2013.

I expect NOL 3Q2013 to improve, hopefully profit. BDI above 1000 and Shanghai Container rates  start to increase. and Shipbuilding and Offshore orders are mostly in July and August of 2013.

Still vested in this ship. Always make money from this ship. :)   

ynnek1267      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 22:22) Posted: Without the net gain of 200mil from headquarter sales, NOL has recorded 2 years straight loss. Most likely, coming quarter shall be another loss recorded since average spot rate of 2Q is much lower than 1Q. sgng123      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 21:32) Posted: SCFI up by 74 pts most likely peak season surcharge transpacific got 50% through and some part of the Europe GRI. But again all this is spot rate data, 2Q container demand seem to be rebounding from 1Q dismal data. Now time to see if fleet renewal program and ELP cost saving program would result in how much cost saving. This year result is all hinged on how much lower the operating cost can be lowered to returned ship to black. Revenue most likely remained the same as last year since demand not much improvement compared YoY  due to overcapacity. 2014 would be better due to P3 operating in 2Q = less aggressive pricing in market and little new built coming on line. By the way NOL in the last 2 years was in fact doing group restructuring exercise  getting rid of capacity/manpower redundancy and resetting slot cost through fleet renewal etc. Top 3 carriers are already running in leaner form and cut cost to bone long before NOL so can make money. By the end of this year, most of the major east to west charters ships would be returned to owners and reduced operating cost to the bone. We would all know by next wed night whether army col would succeed in arresting the loss making trend so keep finger cross and stay out of ship till then.

 

Without the net gain of 200mil from headquarter sales, NOL has recorded 2 years straight loss.

Most likely, coming quarter shall be another loss recorded since average spot rate of 2Q is much lower than 1Q.

sgng123      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 21:32) Posted: SCFI up by 74 pts most likely peak season surcharge transpacific got 50% through and some part of the Europe GRI. But again all this is spot rate data, 2Q container demand seem to be rebounding from 1Q dismal data. Now time to see if fleet renewal program and ELP cost saving program would result in how much cost saving. This year result is all hinged on how much lower the operating cost can be lowered to returned ship to black. Revenue most likely remained the same as last year since demand not much improvement compared YoY  due to overcapacity. 2014 would be better due to P3 operating in 2Q = less aggressive pricing in market and little new built coming on line. By the way NOL in the last 2 years was in fact doing group restructuring exercise  getting rid of capacity/manpower redundancy and resetting slot cost through fleet renewal etc. Top 3 carriers are already running in leaner form and cut cost to bone long before NOL so can make money. By the end of this year, most of the major east to west charters ships would be returned to owners and reduced operating cost to the bone. We would all know by next wed night whether army col would succeed in arresting the loss making trend so keep finger cross and stay out of ship till then.