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Immediate outlook: The STI rallied and challenged the medium term channel resistance
at 3,326 earlier in the week but sellers were strong surrounding that strong resistance. The
3,322 level is also the 78.6%Fibonacci Retracement level of its 2007-2009 sharp fall.
Hence, we expect to see an increase in volatility in the coming days if not weeks given the
bearish divergence on its RSI. Closing back below the support at 3,245 would likely signal
that a deeper correction towards the channel support at 3,139 is taking place. The 50-day
SMA, currently at 3,142 could give the bulls some support as well. However, if this support
also gives way, then prices could soon retest the 3,000 levels.
Long term outlook: Last week, the index formed a possible shooting star pattern on its
weekly chart. It needs confirmation with a black candle this week to confirm that a deeper
correction is happening here. There is no change to our longer term outlook where we are
still bearish on the index even though the index has retraced about 78% of its entire fall
from 2007 to 2009. As we have mentioned in our earlier notes, we see the 78.6%FR a
level where prices could potentially reverse. The momentum indicators continue to lag
behind, calling for the bulls to be extra cautious and keep stops tight. The long term key
support remains at 2,648, where a break would mean that Wave C could fall towards its
medium term downside targets of 2,400 and 2,229. Wave C is likely to take prices below
the 2,000 mark in the coming months if not years.
Nope...
Traders don't hate anything...
They simply love the market for what it is... 
yummygd ( Date: 16-Nov-2010 21:27) Posted:
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traders hate e word correction huh...
iPunter ( Date: 16-Nov-2010 21:14) Posted:
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There's carnage at the European markets at this moment...
NY will take its cue from the other markets.
The immediate outlook looks real bad...
If the STI opens negative on Thursday,
continuation of the correction is highly probable...
Hulumas ( Date: 16-Nov-2010 18:34) Posted:
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Sell now ? a bit too late liao la.... already halfway through...
alexchia01 ( Date: 16-Nov-2010 17:45) Posted:
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Global Equity Technicals - Taking A Breather
• S&P500 takes a breather. The pullback we had been looking for the S&P500 may
have already started last week. Its daily MACD and RSI have already turned
negative. The index tested its 21-day SMA (1,194) last Friday and has just
rebounded from it. Ideally, the retracement target for the S&P500 is 1,155, the
38.2% retracement of the rally from end-Aug. The 50-day SMA is also at 1,163. As
such, the index may correct towards the 1,150-1,160 levels over the next 1-3 weeks.
• Resistance trend line for Dollar Index is at 79.3pts. The Dollar Index has been
trying to find support at the 78 level for the past few days. It is facing resistance at
the 50-day SMA (78.6), after which the next hurdle is the resistance trend line
formed since Jun, which is at 79.3pts currently. The daily technical indicators remain
positive. However, a decline below the early Nov low of 75.6pts could see the Dollar
Index testing the 74 level before finding a medium-term bottom.
• MAxJ testing support trend line. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan’s (MAxJ) correction
paused when the index tested its immediate support trend line, which is also close
to its 21-day SMA (558). The daily technical indicators have already turned
negative, The key support is the 50-day SMA at 539. Ideally, that should be the
bottom for the index. If we are right, there is still 4-5% downside for the MAxJ before
Asian equity indices bottom. A likely consolidation pattern could be a triangle or flat
formation over the next 1-3 weeks. A triangle is more likely.
• Shanghai Composite consolidates. As expected, the Shanghai Composite Index
faced resistance at the Apr peak of 3,160-3,180 and failure to overcome these
levels led to a sharp correction late last week. We are looking for support at the
2930-2,950 levels and in the worst-case scenario, the 50-day SMA (2,833).
However, a break below the 50-day SMA would not be a positive sign.
STI reverses. STI reversed its uptrend late last week after failing to overcome its
resistance trend line. But the index remains in the uptrend channel since end-May.
The support trend line at 3,145 is key. The 50-day SMA support is also close to the
support trend line at 3,147. These support levels should not break. If they did, it would
attract strong sellers in the market.
Source: CIMB
Make Love More, Don't Make More Enemies
Never short, keep buying, you will be in the right path for stock investment within this two years!
alexchia01 ( Date: 16-Nov-2010 17:45) Posted:
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16 Nov 2010 – STI close Down at 3212. Bear Signal. SELL.
Tomorrow’s Market STI Turn Bearish today. Today is the 1st Day of the Short Window. However, there is a month-end window dressing coming, STI may rebound slightly during that period.
Now is not the time to Buy, but to Sell or Go Short.
This is just my personal opinion.
Good luck to all.
15 Nov 2010 – STI close Down at 3237. Moving Sideway.
STI is at the edge of the Bear Tack. However, there is a High chance of STI moving up tomorrow.
Even if STI is to Rise tomorrow, it’s still better to stay on the sideline because the Buildup is mainly for month end window dressing.
You’ll need to be quick to trade during this period.
This is just my personal opinion. You invest at your own risk.
Good luck.
12 Nov 2010 – STI close Down at 3252. Bull Run Stopped. Mixed Signal.
STI could move sideways for the next week, with a possibility of moving Higher.
This is just my personal opinion.
Good luck to all.
11 Nov 2010 – STI close Up at 3293. Correction Continues.
STI could move sideways for the next few days. As long as STI don’t falls below 3264, this is still a Bull Run.
Buy with caution from now on. Buy laggards Only.
More on my Blog at Alex Trades.
Good luck to all.
10 Nov 2010 – STI close Down at 3289. Bull Run Still Intact.
Finally, the Correction. STI could move sideways for the next few days. As long as STI don’t falls below 3264, the Bull is here to stay.
This is just my personal opinion.
Good luck to all.
9 Nov 2010 – STI close Up at 3314. Bull Run Continues.
Totally unexpected. I thought that STI is going to close in the red today and I would feel better if it has.
Anyway, today’s surge is couple with good volume, so the Bull is pretty strong. However, I don’t feel comfortable Buying until there is a correction.
This is just my personal opinion.
Good luck to all.
8 Nov 2010 – STI close Up at 3300. Bull Run Continues.
STI Hit 3300 today. This is the Key Resistance Level. There is a High Chance of STI falling tomorrow.
At this point, you should have already brought all your counters. From now on, if you want to Buy, Buy on Dips and Buy Laggards Only.
More on my Blog at Alex Trades.
This is just my personal opinion.
Good luck to all.
Technical Analysis on STI
STI index has created a new 30 months high record by breaking the resistance at 3220 on Thursday.
1) In weekly charts, a white candle stick with little upper shadow shown the bullishness of the investors on the Fed easing policies.
2) The weekly trading volume falls since Friday is a public holiday for Singapore.
3) MACD and RSI indicators are bullish though RSI already at “overbought region”
4) STI is currently supported by the resistance turned support at 3220
5) Since 3220 resistance has been broken for another new record thus the market outlook signals bullish in short term.
Important resistance of STI: 3268 (Daily charts)
Immediate Support of STI: 3220 (Daily charts)
MY tactics: Market continues to rally boost by the Fed policies easing but still we feel that any potential upside will be very limited. Do trade with care and short term if possible.
SEE COMPLETE REPORT
Learn something new...
Hanging Man: Hanging Man candlesticks form when a security moves significantly lower after the open, but rallies to close well above the intraday low. The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this candlestick forms during a decline, then it is called a Hammer
vonntan ( Date: 06-Nov-2010 00:32) Posted:
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STI bulled last week but close with a hanging man (bearish signal).see chart.
http://sgsharemarket.com/home/2010/11/straits-times-index-bearishness/
better to be cautious on monday.
3 Nov 2010 – STI close Up at 3240. Bull Run Continues.
This week is a Good Week. Expect some correction next week.
From now on, Buy on Dips Only.
More on my Blog at Alex Trades.
This is just my personal opinion.
Good luck to all.
haha... STI intraday corrected only !!
You woke up when you saw SIA move up! hehehhe...
alexchia01 ( Date: 04-Nov-2010 16:36) Posted:
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