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Hi 787180,
Do u think the STAR will shine again today?
| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:47 pm Post subject: See Global demand and outlook for LNG(LPG is derived from) |    |
| The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Markets: Status and Outlook>Overview Overview The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is small but growing rapidly... The combination of higher natural gas prices, lower LNG production costs, rising gas import demand,especially in North America, and the desire of gas producers to monetize their gas reserves is setting the stage for increased LNG trade in the years ahead. In 2002, 12 countries shipped 5.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, which is equivalent to 113 million metric tons of LNG ? up from 9 exporting countries shipping less than 4 Tcf (84 million metric tons) in 1997. Global LNG liquefaction capacity is expected to increase from 6.6 Tcf (139 million metric tons) per year in 2003 to 9.4 Tcf (197 million metric tons) per year in 2007, based on facilities currently under construction. The continental United States imported approximately 229 billion cubic feet (Bcf) (4.8 million metric tons) of LNG in 2002, accounting for 4 percent of world LNG trade.U.S.LNG imports in 2003 are expected to more than double, to about 540 Bcf (11 million metric tons), about 2 percent of U.S.natural gas consumption. According to Energy Information Administration forecasts, U.S.LNG imports are projected to increase to more than 2.2 Tcf (46 million metric tons), 8 percent of U.S.natural gas consumption, in 2010. As of late 2003, there were 151 LNG tankers in the world LNG fleet with 55 tankers under construction.The addition of new ships to the fleet will raise total fleet capacity 44 percent from 17.4 million cubic meters of liquid (equivalent to 366 Bcf of natural gas) in October 2003 to 25.1 million cubic meters of liquid (equivalent to 527 Bcf of natural gas) in 2006. New producers and consumers are making LNG markets more diverse... In 1990, Japan received 66 percent of world LNG imports;however, Japan?s share declined to 48 percent in 2002, reflecting the global expansion of the LNG market. At the same time,shipments received in the Atlantic Basin rose 120 percent, increasing its share of the global market to 32 percent in 2002. In addition to expansions by current LNG exporters,three countries ? Egypt, Norway, and Russia ? are poised to become LNG exporting countries, as they are currently constructing their first LNG liquefaction plants. At least seven additional countries ? Angola, Bolivia, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Peru, Venezuela, and Yemen ? are in the planning stages for their first LNG liquefaction plants. In addition to expansions by existing importers,three countries ? China, India, and the United Kingdom ? are poised to become LNG importing countries, as they are currently constructing new regasification terminals. At least seven countries ? the Bahamas, Jamaica, Indonesia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and the Philippines ? are in the planning stages for their first regasification terminals. Changes in the LNG market are promoting growth? The LNG market is driven by long-term contracts, but these contracts have been growing increasingly flexible in recent years. Some newer long-term contracts are designed to provide only a base supply of LNG, which can be supplemented by short-term contracts during periods of high demand. Short-term trading has grown from 1 percent of the LNG market in 1992 to 8 percent (400 Bcf or 8.4 million metric tons) in 2002.Short-term trading will continue to grow, especially in the Atlantic Basin, and could reach 15 to 20 percent of the LNG market over the next decade. Costs of liquefying, transporting, and regasifying LNG have fallen significantly over the past 20 years. EIA Home If sinostar can trade and close above 80cts ..will be agood sign as uptrend is still intact...see the buy and sell are about the same..suspect underwriters are doing the stablisation process as counter is traded < 1 month since its debut on Sept 26 |
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:33 pm Post subject: | |
| Sinostar main biz is supply of LPG Liquefied Petroleun Gas whic is obtained from LNG...higher crude oil will be translated into higher selling price,beneficial for company's earnings. Demand from China's domestic is so overwhelming that Sinostar is not looking into exporting to other countries as mentioned in its prospectus. With the demand of LNG moving up and down, the price of LNG moves in a "S" curve. With new demand from China, India and US increasing dramatically, and crude oil price skyrocketing, the LNG price is on the rise too. In the mid 1990s LNG was a buyer's market. At the request of buyers, the SPAs began to adopt some flexibilities on volume and price. The buyers had more upward and downward flexibilities in TOP, and short-term SPAs less than 15 years came into effect. At the same time, alternative destinations for cargo and arbitrage were also allowed. By the turn of the 21st century, the market was again in favor of sellers. Sellers now propose rigid SPAs and would like an association similar to OPEC to be established to protect their interests. It is certain that the competition between sellers and buyers will go on. Until 2003, LNG prices have closely followed oil prices. Since then, LNG prices to Europe and Japan, have been lower than oil prices, though the link between LNG and Oil is still strong In contrast, recent prices in the US and UK markets have skyrocketed then fallen as a result of changes in supply and storage. Price arbitrage has not yet led to a convergence of regional prices and to a global market For the time being, the market is a seller?s market (hence net-back is best estimation for prices). The balance of market risks between the buyers (taking most of the volume risks through off-take obligations) and the sellers (taking most of the value risks through indexation to crude oil and petroleum products) is changing. Receiving terminals exist in several countries (China is expected to move onto the list by 2006), allowing gas imports from other areas. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration provides estimates of LNG trade in 2002 as follows: In 2005, Egyptian NG production outpaced consumption and it joined the LNG exporting countries. Global LNG demand is expected to reach 500 bcm/year by 2015 and 635 bcm/year in 2020. The International Energy Agency estimates that European imports of gas from Africa and the Middle East (mainly in the form of LNG) will quadruple by 2030 (source: Economist, 14/4/07, p39). [edit] LNG environmental concerns |
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