HanKore Env   

Hankore onward march to 8-10cts.

Becos all so optimistic here just not too long ago. All say 8 cents and beyong la. Say until my heart itchy. Tot can redeem so hoot all in. Who knows after hoot 2 days later px drop. Sibeh sianz. Taken in by all the words here. Bo bian, can only blame myself for being naive lor.

cccx123      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 15:20) Posted: No la.. I am not gloating. I am a lot worse off than you please.. Staring at 20k paper loss on Innopac. I doubt even your Mirach trade is that bad.. Just saying that it was not really a good idea to re-enter just .3cts below the price you sold at, especially if it is based on hope because the feeling when that hope is dashed by a declining px is not something anyone should want to experience. So many sleepless nights.. Haiz. Don't try to redeem please. Having that mentality might cause further losses. Similar to any individual in a casino. Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 15:13) Posted: Re-enter oout of no choice cos i need to redeem my losses in other counter. I re-enter with half the initial amount only. wah now u gloating over my mishap

 

please hor, starting from now, whorever selling off please sound buzzer here hor.. so that can be informed. Dont tiam tiam sold already, after price tanked gao gao then come here and post.

 

No la.. I am not gloating. I am a lot worse off than you please.. Staring at 20k paper loss on Innopac. I doubt even your Mirach trade is that bad.. Just saying that it was not really a good idea to re-enter just .3cts below the price you sold at, especially if it is based on hope because the feeling when that hope is dashed by a declining px is not something anyone should want to experience.

So many sleepless nights.. Haiz. Don't try to redeem please. Having that mentality might cause further losses. Similar to any individual in a casino.

Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 15:13) Posted: Re-enter oout of no choice cos i need to redeem my losses in other counter. I re-enter with half the initial amount only. wah now u gloating over my mishap. cccx123      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:36) Posted: Who ask you to re-enter lol.. You got profit take then should take if you feel comfortable, and never look back until you can re-enter at a much lower px because you still believe in this company. If you re-enter at 7.2cts after selling at 7.5cts like no difference lol.. Lesson learnt dud

 

Re-enter oout of no choice cos i need to redeem my losses in other counter.

I re-enter with half the initial amount only.

wah now u gloating over my mishap.

cccx123      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:36) Posted: Who ask you to re-enter lol.. You got profit take then should take if you feel comfortable, and never look back until you can re-enter at a much lower px because you still believe in this company. If you re-enter at 7.2cts after selling at 7.5cts like no difference lol.. Lesson learnt dude Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:21) Posted: Then follow who? U got to be responsible for what you say leh. It was the optimism in this thread that spur me to re-enter at 7.2 after i sold off at 7.5. Pls tell me when you sell at the opportune time. Im not good in reading the mkt. I think you are better

 

Just looked at Yahoo, finance, here are the TTM P/Es for 3 of them pulled from Cap IQ

SIIC Environment: 24.2x

Hankore: 16x

United Envirotech: 19.5

Agree that Hyflux is a different company. Hopefully Hankore can get on board some strong, long only institutional investors to set a floor on valuation and reduce price volatility

 

cccx123      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:49) Posted: Siic and united environtech have seen their px depreciate so their PE rations now stand between 15-18 depending on how you calculate. Only hyflux has a ratio in excess of 20 but its a different company altogether. It has institutional backing in temasek and govt water-related contracts somehow usually end up with hyflux. reknab      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:43) Posted: Bros, not an expert, but if the results are good next week, why sell? I think Hankore's trailing 12 months P/E is c.15x, compared to c.24x for SIIC and c.20x for United Envirotech. Btw, does anyone know when David will finish his relocation from Bejing to Singapore?

 

Siic and united environtech have seen their px depreciate so their PE rations now stand between 15-18 depending on how you calculate. Only hyflux has a ratio in excess of 20 but its a different company altogether. It has institutional backing in temasek and govt water-related contracts somehow usually end up with hyflux.

reknab      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:43) Posted: Bros, not an expert, but if the results are good next week, why sell? I think Hankore's trailing 12 months P/E is c.15x, compared to c.24x for SIIC and c.20x for United Envirotech. Btw, does anyone know when David will finish his relocation from Bejing to Singapore?     Share7      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:48) Posted: Wait for 1Q results on 14 Nov. After that you can see Mr Market's reaction and decide. Who knows you may just be able to sell at a profit. C

 

Dont have to worry for me. My strategy is due to thisconsolidation   exercise...and of coz, I cannot determine with certainty that my strategy will be 100% correct but having been in the market and seen so many consolidation, I think I have an idea what to do. :)

new6ie      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:28) Posted: Becareful.   2 years back, I got in at 10 cents. Earlier 2 years than that, my friend got in at 20 cents. Then two years after my 10 cents, I got at 5 cents. Now next 2 years, how much do you guess HK will be?   Just make a guess, lol...  leeeta      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:11) Posted: I am holding to sell at an opportune time (there will be a time for this) and then buy   more lower at an opportune time (and also for this). Dont follow me. :

 

Bros, not an expert, but if the results are good next week, why sell? I think Hankore's trailing 12 months P/E is c.15x, compared to c.24x for SIIC and c.20x for United Envirotech.

Btw, does anyone know when David will finish his relocation from Bejing to Singapore?

 

 

Share7      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:48) Posted: Wait for 1Q results on 14 Nov. After that you can see Mr Market's reaction and decide. Who knows you may just be able to sell at a profit. CE Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:42) Posted: so how now after all the discussion? whats the final verdict? Sell? Hold? Or Buy?? Tell me to sell cheap cheap now i jin buay gam buan. Hold already scared drop to 3 cents (or 30 cents after consol) Else will be hold till i go into my grave liao.

 

Remember after selling at 7.5cts and the px went up to 8cts the next day or something I had this temptation to chase, fearing that I will miss out on capital appreciation. Thankfully, I did not and chose to wait for an opportune time to re-enter, which fortunately presented itself. Though am disappointed at this proposed consolidation exercise.

cccx123      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:36) Posted: Who ask you to re-enter lol.. You got profit take then should take if you feel comfortable, and never look back until you can re-enter at a much lower px because you still believe in this company. If you re-enter at 7.2cts after selling at 7.5cts like no difference lol.. Lesson learnt dude Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:21) Posted: Then follow who? U got to be responsible for what you say leh. It was the optimism in this thread that spur me to re-enter at 7.2 after i sold off at 7.5. Pls tell me when you sell at the opportune time. Im not good in reading the mkt. I think you are better

 

I don't expect 1Q result will show dramatic improvement. If   u see United environ report, it grow gradually Q by Q,but it's good enough for share price to fly to close to the value market agreed.

 

Who ask you to re-enter lol.. You got profit take then should take if you feel comfortable, and never look back until you can re-enter at a much lower px because you still believe in this company. If you re-enter at 7.2cts after selling at 7.5cts like no difference lol.. Lesson learnt dude

Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:21) Posted: Then follow who? U got to be responsible for what you say leh. It was the optimism in this thread that spur me to re-enter at 7.2 after i sold off at 7.5. Pls tell me when you sell at the opportune time. Im not good in reading the mkt. I think you are better. leeeta      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:11) Posted: I am holding to sell at an opportune time (there will be a time for this) and then buy   more lower at an opportune time (and also for this). Dont follow me. :

 

Becareful.   2 years back, I got in at 10 cents. Earlier 2 years than that, my friend got in at 20 cents.

Then two years after my 10 cents, I got at 5 cents.

Now next 2 years, how much do you guess HK will be?   Just make a guess, lol... 

leeeta      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:11) Posted: I am holding to sell at an opportune time (there will be a time for this) and then buy   more lower at an opportune time (and also for this). Dont follow me. :) Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:42) Posted: so how now after all the discussion? whats the final verdict? Sell? Hold? Or Buy?? Tell me to sell cheap cheap now i jin buay gam buan. Hold already scared drop to 3 cents (or 30 cents after consol) Else will be hold till i go into my grave liao.

 

Then follow who? U got to be responsible for what you say leh. It was the optimism in this thread that spur me to re-enter at 7.2 after i sold off at 7.5.

Pls tell me when you sell at the opportune time. Im not good in reading the mkt. I think you are better.

leeeta      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 14:11) Posted: I am holding to sell at an opportune time (there will be a time for this) and then buy   more lower at an opportune time (and also for this). Dont follow me. :) Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:42) Posted: so how now after all the discussion? whats the final verdict? Sell? Hold? Or Buy?? Tell me to sell cheap cheap now i jin buay gam buan. Hold already scared drop to 3 cents (or 30 cents after consol) Else will be hold till i go into my grave liao.

 

ok lor, next thurs nia. Not too far away. Like leeta said, if price goes up 10% sell first. Dont think i can profit, can only break even at best.

Share7      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:48) Posted: Wait for 1Q results on 14 Nov. After that you can see Mr Market's reaction and decide. Who knows you may just be able to sell at a profit. CE Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:42) Posted: so how now after all the discussion? whats the final verdict? Sell? Hold? Or Buy?? Tell me to sell cheap cheap now i jin buay gam buan. Hold already scared drop to 3 cents (or 30 cents after consol) Else will be hold till i go into my grave liao.

 

I am holding to sell at an opportune time (there will be a time for this) and then buy   more lower at an opportune time (and also for this). Dont follow me. :)

Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:42) Posted: so how now after all the discussion? whats the final verdict? Sell? Hold? Or Buy?? Tell me to sell cheap cheap now i jin buay gam buan. Hold already scared drop to 3 cents (or 30 cents after consol) Else will be hold till i go into my grave liao.

 

I am holding still. 

Believe good news might be on the way, even before 14/11

have faith =)

 

Market probably thinking the same as you lol.. Mostly likely the reason why the price did not drop that much. Buying interest seems to have diminished after that announcement.

Share7      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:48) Posted: Wait for 1Q results on 14 Nov. After that you can see Mr Market's reaction and decide. Who knows you may just be able to sell at a profit. CE Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:42) Posted: so how now after all the discussion? whats the final verdict? Sell? Hold? Or Buy?? Tell me to sell cheap cheap now i jin buay gam buan. Hold already scared drop to 3 cents (or 30 cents after consol) Else will be hold till i go into my grave liao.

 

Wait for 1Q results on 14 Nov. After that you can see Mr Market's reaction and decide. Who knows you may just be able to sell at a profit. CE

Spivvy      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:42) Posted: so how now after all the discussion? whats the final verdict? Sell? Hold? Or Buy?? Tell me to sell cheap cheap now i jin buay gam buan. Hold already scared drop to 3 cents (or 30 cents after consol) Else will be hold till i go into my grave liao.

 

so how now after all the discussion? whats the final verdict?

Sell? Hold? Or Buy??

Tell me to sell cheap cheap now i jin buay gam buan.

Hold already scared drop to 3 cents (or 30 cents after consol)

Else will be hold till i go into my grave liao.

 

Nice writing. fully agree your point. Price keep on dropping really test your judgement and confidence. and FA should play more part than TA.

The basic questions is

1)Is Hankore 's business model   practical ?

2) Can you estimate HK 's income and profit?

3) what 's the worst   scenario?

For me, it's all ok and I also support management's strategy. 

I agree KimEnG's Win Bin ' analysis 

 

Hankore Environment

Cheaper Exposure to China Water Sector

A fast growing water company in China. Hankore is mainly involved in municipal wastewater treatments in China with 11 water plants and total contracted capacity of 1.57tons/day when fully completed. We recently met with Hankore?s management and visited one of its water plants in Suzhou. We are impressed by the restructuring and progress that occurred in the past few years and think there are some improvements in company?s fundamental. The stock seems gain more interest after introducing a strategic investor in July 2013. We highlight this stock to investors as we think it might be a good turnaround story.

Could be a good turnaround story. After a series of developments including debt restructuring (2008), appointment of new management (2011) and liquidation of some non-performing assets (2011), Hankore successfully recovered from a net loss of RMB407m in FY11 to a profit of RMB103m in FY12. Hankore is upgrading or expanding 5 out of its total 11 water projects in China, which gives growth potential to the company. The turnaround might be sustainable given the better earnings visibility and cleaner balance sheet.

Triple growth engines going forward. We identified three main growth drivers for the company: (1) in FY6/14, there could be a big increase in the construction revenue as the existing 5 upgrading and expansion contracts delivered to the government (2) FY6/15 onwards, the ongoing expansion works will increase the water processing capacity by around 33% from current level and (3) water tariff hike due to the improved water quality after the upgrades are completed.

Key risks. In our view, there are three main risks to almost any water treatment companies including Hankore: (1) interest rate risk, (2) liquidity risk and (3) credit risk. Lack of a strong parent company could also be one of the disadvantages for Hankore compared with other SOE backed water companies such as Beijing Enterprises Water Group (371: HK) and SIIC Environment (SIIC: SP).

Attractive valuation. Hankore provides a very attractive exposure to China water industry. It is currently trading at 8.2x 12m trailing PER compared with 22.6x average for SGX-listed peers.

reknab      ( Date: 05-Nov-2013 18:44) Posted: I've been following this forum for a while now, and just signed up to add to the discussion on Hankore. I can understand the stigma and the negative connotations behind a reverse stock split, but my opinion is that we should consider the circumstances and the rationale behind it. For example, in the US market, many reverse stock splits are done as a cosmetic action to avoid delisting. These companies are not financially sound to begin with, and hence we associate reverse stock splits with poor performance, but in my opinion Hankore is doing it from a position of strength.  Hankore has a solid growth story, as many in the forum have recognised, and a stable base with more than half its revenue recurring (and growing). I feel that the most important thing for Hankore now is to be able to raise more money so that it dosent miss out on significant investment opportunities that are popping up in China now. The problem with taking on too much debt (they have ramped up their debt levels significantly over the past year, finance costs up 25% y-o-y) is that this leaves Hankore vulnerable to 1) The inevitable tapering by the Fed and the subsequent rise in interest rates as well as 2) a maturity mismatch/gap between their debt (up to 7 years?) with the time period in which they need to finance their projects (> 20++ years?). Hence an equity infusion is needed, and is in fact prudent in my opinion.  As a penny stock, Hankore has an enormous public float - about 65% from their AR 2013 - and limited institutional ownership. But institutional ownership is important, both in terms of the price discovery process (institutions are, arguably more sophisticated and hence more able to value the stock accurately) as well as a base for stability and to avoid the price swings that have been associated with Hankore. I feel that Hankore is embarking on its first step to make the stock more attractive to institutions by cutting the float (and hence liquidity and volatility) as well as by trying to reduce the stigma associated with penny stocks by cosmetically pushing up its share price. At the end of the day, David recognises that Hankore has to raise equity capital and needs institutional ownership to help to properly value the stock and push its trading multiple up to level more comparable with its peers (and not just through a rights issue, but through a placement with a well known private equity/hedge fund for the signalling effect and to add to its legitimacy with the market.) The pity is that current investors are selling and losing faith in Hankore even when its fundamentals have not changed and when David's decision, in my opinion, is a calculated and well thought out. I'm actually cautiously optimistic on this, and happy that David is trying to raise the share price before an equity infusion and hence not diluting us (and himself) unnecessarily. Love to hear everyone's comments on this - I'm not familiar with local precedents of reverse stock splits and hence cant comment on whether the circumstances of their reverse split is from a position of strength, or from a position of weakness. FYI I'm vested at 6.5 cents