Golden Agri-Res    Last:0.29    +0.005

GoldenAgr

Wednesday 4D - 9506 - starters. AK_FRancis got strike or not.:-)

AK_Francis      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 16:10) Posted: As some sifus said, profit taking n some small correction. D diarrhoea will cease if tonite DJ dun over react to PRC move n tomorrow HSI gain some grd. Nonetheless, if PRC spokeman stand up to say something to cool down SSE n HSI lagi best. Yah, comrade, AK ds yr by end Mar 59 liao, for Chinese age, add one to make 60 liao. I think age is catching up, must cut down beer loh. 5960, today is wed. Cheers. purelotus      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 15:55) Posted: Saw yr genting SP post.  You seem like quite old already, haha.

 

top volume but flat

 

Haha good that did not rock u hard. 5960 liao, cannot have those heart problem stock. Haha, just kidding. At least this less heart problem compare with Genting SP right?

AK_Francis      ( Date: 14-Jan-2010 09:26) Posted: Comrade, tks you n other sifus' encouragement. Thus AK still holding ds baby tight tight. 0.64cts high didn't rock me, he he. Cheers for all d supporters. riksnake      ( Date: 14-Jan-2010 07:45) Posted: stay kool, play it long and it should come back in a short while, the whole world is in crisis and food prices is getting higher each day. Most Agri stock will rise, give it another week as DJ report earning will turn things better

 

Comrade, tks you n other sifus' encouragement. Thus AK still holding ds baby tight tight. 0.64cts high didn't rock me, he he. Cheers for all d supporters.

riksnake      ( Date: 14-Jan-2010 07:45) Posted: stay kool, play it long and it should come back in a short while, the whole world is in crisis and food prices is getting higher each day. Most Agri stock will rise, give it another week as DJ report earning will turn things better. AK_Francis      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 16:10) Posted: As some sifus said, profit taking n some small correction. D diarrhoea will cease if tonite DJ dun over react to PRC move n tomorrow HSI gain some grd. Nonetheless, if PRC spokeman stand up to say something to cool down SSE n HSI lagi best. Yah, comrade, AK ds yr by end Mar 59 liao, for Chinese age, add one to make 60 liao. I think age is catching up, must cut down beer loh. 5960, today is wed. Cheers.

 

stay kool, play it long and it should come back in a short while, the whole world is in crisis and food prices is getting higher each day. Most Agri stock will rise, give it another week as DJ report earning will turn things better.

AK_Francis      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 16:10) Posted: As some sifus said, profit taking n some small correction. D diarrhoea will cease if tonite DJ dun over react to PRC move n tomorrow HSI gain some grd. Nonetheless, if PRC spokeman stand up to say something to cool down SSE n HSI lagi best. Yah, comrade, AK ds yr by end Mar 59 liao, for Chinese age, add one to make 60 liao. I think age is catching up, must cut down beer loh. 5960, today is wed. Cheers. purelotus      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 15:55) Posted: Saw yr genting SP post.  You seem like quite old already, haha.

 

I think the prices will recover. If we stay by the share together, price pressure should be minimised

 

todays pullback is just a profit taking...i hope so. i doubled my position, yesterday. Wrong decision, newbie reaction.

Anyway, it is still in the uptrend... i bought @ .480 anyway, but add up @ 0.625... hahaha

 

As some sifus said, profit taking n some small correction. D diarrhoea will cease if tonite DJ dun over react to PRC move n tomorrow HSI gain some grd. Nonetheless, if PRC spokeman stand up to say something to cool down SSE n HSI lagi best.

Yah, comrade, AK ds yr by end Mar 59 liao, for Chinese age, add one to make 60 liao. I think age is catching up, must cut down beer loh. 5960, today is wed. Cheers.

purelotus      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 15:55) Posted: Saw yr genting SP post.  You seem like quite old already, haha.  AK_Francis      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 15:11) Posted: Comrade, sorry morning went NUH for blood test. Just back fr kopitiam, after 2 cups of ginger water, not feeling well, no beer for last 3 days. Yes, still keeping ds burger, no hurry to exit yet. However, if situation continue to turn very bad then, I will unload other counters as well. Cheers.

 

yes, nxt wk market must rise!!!

 

Saw yr genting SP post. 

You seem like quite old already, haha. 

AK_Francis      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 15:11) Posted: Comrade, sorry morning went NUH for blood test. Just back fr kopitiam, after 2 cups of ginger water, not feeling well, no beer for last 3 days. Yes, still keeping ds burger, no hurry to exit yet. However, if situation continue to turn very bad then, I will unload other counters as well. Cheers. purelotus      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:19) Posted: Hi AK, You still keeping? Not sell? Seem like drop too much. Too big the correction.

 

this week market drop, next week market rise....

swisssaints      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 15:13) Posted: bought at 0.615 stuck. sigh..

 

bought at 0.615 stuck. sigh..

 

Comrade, sorry morning went NUH for blood test.

Just back fr kopitiam, after 2 cups of ginger water, not feeling well,

no beer for last 3 days.

Yes, still keeping ds burger, no hurry to exit yet. However, if situation continue to turn very bad then, I will unload other counters as well. Cheers.

purelotus      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:19) Posted: Hi AK, You still keeping? Not sell? Seem like drop too much. Too big the correction.  AK_Francis      ( Date: 11-Jan-2010 20:05) Posted: Ha ha , as far as CO keep on rising, GAR is a good baby loh. Didn't sell, still keeping. Bt n avg at 0.502cts. Hv good fat CNY liao. Cheers.

 

A tidy profit. Congratulations!

Richman      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 14:28) Posted: Bought at 0.46 cents and sold at 0.64 cents (100 lot) I will monitor and I  expect CPO prices to pick up again

 

Bought at 0.46 cents and sold at 0.64 cents (100 lot)

I will monitor and I  expect CPO prices to pick up again

 

how u know?

TuaPekGong9413      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:32) Posted: BBs already left liao.....

 

BBs already left liao.....

 

it has been moving up from 46-47 c since 30Nov.

@ 58c it is still more than 25% from then.

be patient.

 

 

 

Hi AK,

You still keeping? Not sell? Seem like drop too much. Too big the correction. 

AK_Francis      ( Date: 11-Jan-2010 20:05) Posted: Ha ha , as far as CO keep on rising, GAR is a good baby loh. Didn't sell, still keeping. Bt n avg at 0.502cts. Hv good fat CNY liao. Cheers.

 

POOR BUSINESS INTEGRITY CUT LOSS........ TAKE PROFIT........ SHORT for MORE PROFIT........ Golden Agri-Resources Ltd Underweight GAGR.SI, GGR SP Benefiting from higher CPO prices but underlying concerns remain ▲ Price: S$0.65 Price TARGET: S$0.45 Previous: S$0.40 Singapore Plantations Ying-Jian ChanAC (65) 6882-2378 ying.jian.yj.chan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia 0.2 0.4 0.6 S$ Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Price Performance GAGR.SI share price (S$ FTSTI (rebased) YTD 1m 3m 12m Abs 25.2% 31.6% 43.3% 147.6% Rel 23.9% 26.9% 32.7% 82.4% See page 8 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Company data 52-week range S$0.22 - 0.66 Market cap S$7,829MM Market cap US$5,640MM Shares outstanding 12,139MM Price (S$) 0.65 Date of price 11-Jan-10 Free float 51% Avg daily value S$32.2MM Avg daily value US$23.2MM Avg daily volume 67.0MM shares STI Index 2,933.53 Exchange rate S$1.388/US$1 Source: Bloomberg. • CAUTIOUS on UPCOMING downward pressure: Given its strong stock-CPO price correlation (r=0.93) and high liquidity, we believe the 32%M/M increase in Golden Agri’s share price was expected, on the backof a run-up in CPO prices. The stock trades at 14.3x FY10E P/E, close to the peer average. With the upcoming South America soybean bumper harvest potentially putting downward pressure on CPO prices in end 1Q10, we believe the stock may react similarly. • Earnings may improve on higher CPO volume traded: Higher CPO prices could help lift earnings, especially given that Golden Agri’s inventory of high-cost fertilizers would have been completely used up by now. Further, the strong pricing environment could induce higher CPO trading activities. In 2008, CPO trading partly contributed to its Indonesia operation’s 67% increase in revenue although the production volume was only up 5%, as sales volume rose 38%. • Questionable planting practices are a CONCERN: In Dec-09, Unilever suspended a £20 million (US$32.6 million) palm oil supply contract with Golden Agri due to allegations by environmental group Greenpeace that the company was “engaged in widespread iLLEGAL DEforestation and PEATLAND clearance”. While the suspended contract accounted for only 2-3% of Golden Agri’s group revenue, we are concerned that the company might see MORE CONTRACT CAMCELLATIONS by other key customers. • Equity fund raising risk: In 2009, the company raised US$216 million through a rights issue, and in the next three years the subsequent warrants conversion could bring in another US$270 million. It has spent US$110 million on the acquisition of ECC Group, which owns plantations in Indonesia. However, recent news flow from Bloomberg about the company looking to invest US$1.6 billion in 240,000 ha of oil palms in Liberia could raise concerns about its potential equity fund raising. • Valuation, PT: We roll over our PT timeframe from Jun-10 to Dec-10, which results in our PT rising from S$0.40 to S$0.45, implying 11x/10x FY10E/FY11E P/E. Bloomberg: GGR SP; Reuters: GAGR.SI US$MM, year-end December FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E FY12E Revenue 2,986 2,321 2,676 2,810 2,927 Net profit (reported) 1,383 235 360 389 409 Net profit (recurring) 377 235 360 389 409 EPS (US cents) 13.86 1.94 2.96 3.20 3.37 DPS (S cents) 0.80 0.41 0.62 0.67 0.71 Sales growth 59.4% -22.3% 15.3% 5.0% 4.2% Net profit (recurring) growth 32.0% -37.7% 53.1% 8.1% 5.2% ROE 16.1% 9.0% 12.6% 12.2% 11.6% P/E (x) 12.2 21.6 14.1 13.1 12.4 P/B (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 Dividend yield 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%