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5201-5220 of 6935
| Nymex Crude Future |
59.39 |
1.40 |
2.41 |
02/16 |
| Dated Brent Spot |
57.44 |
1.51 |
2.69 |
02/16 |
| WTI Cushing Spot |
59.39 |
1.40 |
2.41 |
02/16 |
is this what you are waiting?
Be cautious on SPC... like I mentioned yesterday, it could be topping out soon.
Bollinger bands are also getting squeezed. Something dramatic may happen.
looking at the charts, i wonder why too...
sometimes, there is something called a triple top too.
is this one of those times?
giantlow,
WOW!!!
If this all so clear to you, I am curious to know why, then, did you punt on the warrant...when obviously the charts shows a serious downtrend?
for pple who are no familar with TA.
The double-top pattern is found at the peaks
of an upward trend and is a clear signal that the preceding upward
trend is weakening and that buyers are losing interest. Upon completion
of this pattern, the trend is considered to be reversed and the
security is expected to move lower.
The first stage of this pattern is the creation of a new high during the upward trend, which, after peaking, faces resistance and sells off to a level of support.
The next stage of this pattern will see the price start to move back
towards the level of resistance found in the previous run-up, which
again sells off back to the support level. The pattern is completed
when the security falls below (or breaks down) the support level that had backstopped each move the security made, thus marking the beginnings of a downward trend.
It's important to note that the
price does not need to touch the level of resistance but should be
close to the prior peak. Also, when using this chart pattern one should
wait for the price to break below the key level of support before
entering. Trading before the signal is formed can yield disastrous
results, as the pattern is only setting up the possibility for the
trend reversal and could trade within this banded range for some time
without falling through.
This pattern is a clear illustration of a battle between buyers and
sellers. The buyers are attempting to push the security but are facing
resistance, which prevents the continuation of the upward trend. After
this goes on a couple of times, the buyers in the market start to give
up or dry up, and the sellers start to take a stranglehold of the
security, sending it down into a new downtrend.
if u look at the trend that victorian posted, it shows a double top formation. (at $6)
That is an extremely bearish signal.
= (
Unless I can see the rise in SPC's share price, AND profit from the sale of my SPC warrants, I WILL NOT BELIEVE!!!
giantlow,
I have not reviewed the figures recently....but from memory, and ballpark figures, , historically upstream business (from Jeruk) contributed about 1% of revenue and 10% of bottomline profits.
Oyan (4,000 bbl/d?) is expected to have a higher production rate than Jeruk (2,600 bbl/d). Hence it is expected to contribute significantly to the bottomline profit. However, I don't expect it to be in the same proportion as Jeruk as, being a newer development, its costs may be higher.
How much Oyang can mitigate refining margin squeeze (if any)?, I cannot tell at this time.....have to wait to see the financials after Oyang starts production. But, if you look at Q on Q refining margins, you will find it is highly cyclical......so, one bad Q may not be dooms day.
giantlow, I am not trying to sell you anything.....but merely trying to lay down the facts for you. But, if you've invested in warrants, like contra play (SMB), you impose upon yourself a time contraint...and this can, and often does, work against you.
sgjothi...
FA is fundamental analysis while TA is technical analysis
if oil prices increase, revenues increase but expenses increases too.
limited effect.. what we want is the increase in refining margins.
shplayer...
low P/E could be that the mkt is not confident of the co's future.
P/E could increase suddenly when earnings expectations crash too.
SPC is more of a refiner than an oil explorer. Oyang is but small baby.
chinkiasu....
i refuse to believe whatever CEO pep talk. i believe that the share will speak for itself. currently, the stock is telling me lotsa crap
sorry, what is FA and TA again? Wonder also an + impact if oil price to hit $100!
Yes, it is an FA stock...but because of its volitility, there are TA opportunities. Look at nickyng, he's SPC shortist specialist....highly risky compared to TA.
Consider the FA factors of SPC.... yield (tax exempt) at say purchase cost of 4.40 is 7.9% (FY2006). and 7.3% (FY2005). P/E is about 8X (F2005).
I think you will be hard pressed to find stocks of similiar FA parameters in SGX today.
Of course, FAs, like TAs, are not forever,,,so when the situation changes, one needs to review the position. In the case of SPC, if/when refining margins get squeezed, it will be compensated to a certain degree by new upstream income stream (Oyang field). We then need to evaluate what the + - impact will be?
yes giantlow... even with more oil refiners, lets be confident our guys can be more efficient.. I believe CEO Lim is not the type that speaks without weight (his problem is that he seldom speaks publicly: he lets results speak for itself).. the Keppel Corp is one good track record... lets not lose hope (even now with the warrants)..
realli??? after the roller coaster ride. i have strong doubts leh.
Also, with more oil refiners coming on full steam in 2008 and 2009, refining margins will be squeezed further. Perhaps, the CEO meant that SPC has already exceeded its full potential now and will drop to realistic values in 2009 and 2010.
i have absolutely no doubts that SPC is definately a FA stock.. and very good divvy... just that I am a little impatient because of warrant play...
If i remember correctly, Kepcorp CEO Lim Chee Onn once said that the share price of SPC will be reach it's 'Full potential' in 2009-2010. Really wonder what that means? though SPC has reach $6 TWICE but to drop to this level now..
Long term i guess..
at last it hit 4.50 albeit for the opening... lets see the flood waters go after that......
ok.....as i advised...wont be shorting SPC this wk....hee..happy punting !! :P
Dooms-day article on oil prices.
Oil price tipped to take a tumble
OIL will drop more than 30 per cent to $US40 a barrel in March and may drop to $US30 as rising prices for storing crude lead to a "breaking point" that forces speculators to sell, according to investment bank Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Oil will slide because greater investment in commodity futures has driven the market into "contango", according to analysts led by London-based Neil McMahon. The phenomenon occurs when futures prices rise above spot prices, often reflecting handling or storage costs.
"As storage fills up, storage costs rise and the contango widens," the analysts said in a February report. "At some point, investors will reallocate money away from the commodity funds, causing futures prices to fall."
Last month, New York-traded crude fell to $US49.90 a barrel, as warmer than expected weather spread across the US and fuel inventories surged. Crude has since risen on a second production cut by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a cold snap in the US, the world's largest energy consumer.
The "breaking point" could come in March if Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, failed to cut production below 8 million barrels a day, the level needed to keep the market balanced, the Bernstein analysts said.
Spare capacity would rise, widening the contango and driving investors out.
"The funds flow into commodities in recent years is staggering," Mr McMahon and colleagues said.
Net assets invested in the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index rose to almost $US70 billion in 2006 from $US15 billion in 2003, they said. "The bubble is bound to burst."
Mr McMahon, 36, joined Bernstein from McKinsey & Co, in 2003. He previously spent three years in geology at BP and BG Group.
"You've got a lot of money coming into commodities from people who want to diversify from bonds and equities," Bernstein analyst Ben Dell said. "To some extent the bubble has burst. Making money on commodities is not as easy as it was."
Bernstein has been looking at the problem of passive investment since June 2006, after the market curve changed into contango in October 2005, according to Mr Dell.
"After four years of fund flow into commodity futures, investors in oil are now struggling with how to generate a return with the curve in contango and a negative roll yield," he said. Investors can lose money even as oil rises when funds sell expiring contracts and then pay more for future contracts.
Bernstein said last October that oil would probably fall to an average of $US50 a barrel in 2007, as inventories remained high and non-OPEC production rose. Crude has averaged $US55.76 so far this year.
Among analysts predicting an increase in oil prices, Goldman Sachs said New York futures might rise to $US71.50 a barrel this year because producer investment was significantly short of requirements.
Goldman said in December 2005 that oil prices might go as high as $US105 a barrel in a "super spike" period that might last until 2009, as production lagged growing world demand.
Bloomberg
Just a second look at that 1055 lots @4.48: apparently it is bot by small retailers.....??
This is the
night owl l
boring post: Note
refinery repairs akan datang, so oil prices low says Bloomberg... But for us
it should read refinery capacity down so SPC should have good business, and price should go up!!!
Oil Falls on Forecasts for Warmer Weather, Refinery Repairs By Mark Shenk
Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a second day on forecasts for warmer weather along the U.S. East Coast and
speculation that demand will decline as refiners perform repairs to units.
The East will be covered by above-normal temperatures from Feb. 22 to Feb. 28, the National Weather Service said. The Northeast uses 80 percent of the heating oil consumed in the U.S.
Refinery maintenance usually occurs in late February and March as the heating season wanes. Units are repaired and upgraded before the summer when gasoline demand peaks.
``We are about to go into the refinery maintenance season, so demand for crude oil will fall,'' said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Tilburg, the Netherlands. ``We are approaching the end of February, so the end of the heating season is near. If the present cold-snap in the Northeast had occurred in December, prices would have risen.''
Crude oil for March delivery fell 79 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $57.21 a barrel at 12:28 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $56.62, the lowest since Jan. 31. Prices are little changed from a year ago.
Daily price swings in crude oil futures are widening. Futures fell or rose more than 1.5 percent on 27 trading days in the past two months compared with 15 days in the same period a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
``A move of $1 down or higher is no longer unusual in this market,'' said Justin Fohsz, a broker at Starsupply Petroleum, a division of GFI Group Inc., in Englewood, New Jersey. ``You now see exaggerated reactions to reports and news.''
Winter Weather
Home-heating demand in the Northeast will be 15 percent above normal this week, according to Weather Derivatives of Belton, Missouri.
The forecaster was looking for heating demand to be 39 percent above normal over the coming week.
``There will be another cold front centered over the Great Lakes and New England coming through during the late weekend and early next week,'' said Dale Mohler, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. ``Temperatures will moderate next week and remind us that Spring is just around the corner.''
The decline in crude-oil prices accelerated after the Energy Department reported that U.S. natural-gas inventories fell 259 billion cubic feet last week, short of the record drop that many had predicted. Some manufacturers and utilities can switch between oil-based fuels and natural gas depending on costs.
Crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and diesel supplies last week were above the five-year average for the period, the Energy Department said yesterday.
OPEC Outlook
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the producer of 40 percent of the world's oil, today left its global demand estimate at 85.4 million barrels a day, ``broadly unchanged'' from a month ago, according to the group's report.
OPEC has announced a total of 1.7 million barrels a day of supply cutbacks, which took place in two stages, on Nov. 1 and Feb. 1. The group wanted to bolster prices, which are down 27 percent from the record of $78.40 a barrel reached on July 14. OPEC will meet March 15 at its Vienna headquarters to discuss second-quarter production.
Brent crude oil for April settlement fell 78 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $56.65 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at
mshenk1@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: February 15, 2007 12:44 EST
