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521-540 of 1606
no bull lei. kena shot down. lol
Shorted 25721 lots....Again shorted almost half of the vol!!
Shortists recover back. Buy now, set to bull
bouncing?
...now seems to be in wave 'c' of correction...a hammer in the making ....
...last done: $0.560... previous low happen to be $0.540 (19 Apr) same as today low...
red in the morning, coming back alive.
Longists all waiting like a hawk to scoop in. Cheap beer anyone??? 
allanzzz ( Date: 22-Jul-2013 16:00) Posted:
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are the shorts finally covering? been 9 days straight of red
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The support at S$0.58 has been broken. Neckline at S$0.54 with bigger H& S formed.
The 50- and 100-day moving averages are turning lower.
Possibly a not-so-strong rebound upon testing the support at S$0.54.
Could portend subsequent tests of next support levels at $0.50 and $0.45.
they could be right. but short term it is oversold. rebound inpending.
UBS makes contrarian call on ThaiBev
With growing regional consumer demand as the backdrop, Thai Beverage, the leading maker of drinks from white spirits to green tea, has been rated favourably by analysts for its strong base and growth potential. Last year, the company is estimated to have cornered more than three quarters of the spirit and one third of the beer sales respectively in its home market.
ThaiBev’s successful bid for control of Singapore-based drinks and property company Fraser & Neave with the help of TCC Assets, the investment holding company owned by ThaiBev chairman Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, also made the company a larger and stronger regional player in the F&B field.
This is the reason why, from the start of the year till July 17, all five recommendations of ThaiBev had either been “buy” or “overweight”, with target prices ranging from 75 to 80 cents.
However, in a contrarian call made on July 18, UBS Investment Research analyst Chirag Saglani figured that ThaiBev, which closed 0.5 cents lower at 56 cents on July 19, is worth only 51 cents, because of a looming downturn in Thai consumer sentiment and possible risks in the restructuring process of F&N.
For one, spirits, which accounted for 58% of the company’s revenue and a bigger proportion of its earnings in FY2012, could see weakening demand from the main customer segment of lower income workers. “Rising household debt and government tightening of populist subsidy schemes is likely to affect purchasing power,” writes Saglani, referring to the government’s decision to lower the minimum guaranteed price of rice from 15,000 baht per tonne to 13,000 baht per tonne from November.
Then there was also the excise duty hike last year that made alcohol more expensive. And prices of soft commodities like rubber and palm oil produced by Thai small holdings have also softened. With incomes affected, demand will shift from ThaiBev’s relatively premium products to cheaper alternatives, says Saglani. As such, he predicts that ThaiBev’s sale of spirits will drop 5% by volume this year and remain flat in 2014.
UBS estimates that ThaiBev, trading at 19 times 2013 P/E, is going to post an underlying earnings compounded annual growth of just 5.3% for FY2012 to FY2015 and believes “valuation is expensive” for the stock.
Then there is the looming restructuring of F&N’s property, publishing and beverage businesses by the new owners. Saglani believes ThaiBev might have to cut its dividend payout ratio to 40%, from the current 50%, as it tries to pay down $3.3 billion in debt incurred from the acquisition.
The restructuring could involve some kind of swap between ThaiBev, which owns 28.6% of F&N, and TCC Assets, which owns 61.4%. Saglani believes ThaiBev would sell its share of the non-beverage business to TCC Assets, and TCC Assets, in turn, would sell its share in the beverage business to ThaiBev. The net effect would result in ThaiBev and TCC Assets owning both 90% each in the beverages, and non-beverages business, respectively. However, the key risk for ThaiBev shareholders is: At what value would the different businesses change hands?
Under the first of two scenarios floated by Saglani, both the property and publishing business would be transacted at book value. This would result in TCC Assets paying ThaiBev $475 million. The second scenario involves the possibility of the property business transacted at 0.7 times book and publishing at 0.8 times book. This would result in ThaiBev paying TCC Assets $839 million. The total of $1.3 billion from these two scenarios is worth 5 cents per share, or 10% of the price target, calculates Saglani. There is also a third scenario. “It is also possible that it completely divests the stake in the publishing business to a third party,” writes Saglani.
In an announcement by F&N on July 18, the company states that TCC Assets, because of “unfavourable” market conditions, has not sold enough shares to increase the free float above the 10% level. On July 19, SGX agreed to give F&N an extension till end of the year for a more thorough review on what to do next.
Nevertheless, there are analysts who are more optimistic than Saglani. Nirgunan Tiruchelvam of Standard Chartered, in a July 5 note, believes that ThaiBev will unleash 8 billion baht ($326 million) worth of synergy when F&N’s drinks business is consolidated within the company. In this scenario, ThaiBev would be trading at 16.1 times forward earnings post-restructuring, compared to 20.3 times in the “base scenario” and regional peer group’s average of 23 times. That makes ThaiBev a much more attractive stock for Nirgunan who has a “buy” call and price target of 75 cents.
With growing regional consumer demand as the backdrop, Thai Beverage, the leading maker of drinks from white spirits to green tea, has been rated favourably by analysts for its strong base and growth potential. Last year, the company is estimated to have cornered more than three quarters of the spirit and one third of the beer sales respectively in its home market.
ThaiBev’s successful bid for control of Singapore-based drinks and property company Fraser & Neave with the help of TCC Assets, the investment holding company owned by ThaiBev chairman Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, also made the company a larger and stronger regional player in the F&B field.
This is the reason why, from the start of the year till July 17, all five recommendations of ThaiBev had either been “buy” or “overweight”, with target prices ranging from 75 to 80 cents.
However, in a contrarian call made on July 18, UBS Investment Research analyst Chirag Saglani figured that ThaiBev, which closed 0.5 cents lower at 56 cents on July 19, is worth only 51 cents, because of a looming downturn in Thai consumer sentiment and possible risks in the restructuring process of F&N.
For one, spirits, which accounted for 58% of the company’s revenue and a bigger proportion of its earnings in FY2012, could see weakening demand from the main customer segment of lower income workers. “Rising household debt and government tightening of populist subsidy schemes is likely to affect purchasing power,” writes Saglani, referring to the government’s decision to lower the minimum guaranteed price of rice from 15,000 baht per tonne to 13,000 baht per tonne from November.
Then there was also the excise duty hike last year that made alcohol more expensive. And prices of soft commodities like rubber and palm oil produced by Thai small holdings have also softened. With incomes affected, demand will shift from ThaiBev’s relatively premium products to cheaper alternatives, says Saglani. As such, he predicts that ThaiBev’s sale of spirits will drop 5% by volume this year and remain flat in 2014.
UBS estimates that ThaiBev, trading at 19 times 2013 P/E, is going to post an underlying earnings compounded annual growth of just 5.3% for FY2012 to FY2015 and believes “valuation is expensive” for the stock.
Then there is the looming restructuring of F&N’s property, publishing and beverage businesses by the new owners. Saglani believes ThaiBev might have to cut its dividend payout ratio to 40%, from the current 50%, as it tries to pay down $3.3 billion in debt incurred from the acquisition.
The restructuring could involve some kind of swap between ThaiBev, which owns 28.6% of F&N, and TCC Assets, which owns 61.4%. Saglani believes ThaiBev would sell its share of the non-beverage business to TCC Assets, and TCC Assets, in turn, would sell its share in the beverage business to ThaiBev. The net effect would result in ThaiBev and TCC Assets owning both 90% each in the beverages, and non-beverages business, respectively. However, the key risk for ThaiBev shareholders is: At what value would the different businesses change hands?
Under the first of two scenarios floated by Saglani, both the property and publishing business would be transacted at book value. This would result in TCC Assets paying ThaiBev $475 million. The second scenario involves the possibility of the property business transacted at 0.7 times book and publishing at 0.8 times book. This would result in ThaiBev paying TCC Assets $839 million. The total of $1.3 billion from these two scenarios is worth 5 cents per share, or 10% of the price target, calculates Saglani. There is also a third scenario. “It is also possible that it completely divests the stake in the publishing business to a third party,” writes Saglani.
In an announcement by F&N on July 18, the company states that TCC Assets, because of “unfavourable” market conditions, has not sold enough shares to increase the free float above the 10% level. On July 19, SGX agreed to give F&N an extension till end of the year for a more thorough review on what to do next.
Nevertheless, there are analysts who are more optimistic than Saglani. Nirgunan Tiruchelvam of Standard Chartered, in a July 5 note, believes that ThaiBev will unleash 8 billion baht ($326 million) worth of synergy when F&N’s drinks business is consolidated within the company. In this scenario, ThaiBev would be trading at 16.1 times forward earnings post-restructuring, compared to 20.3 times in the “base scenario” and regional peer group’s average of 23 times. That makes ThaiBev a much more attractive stock for Nirgunan who has a “buy” call and price target of 75 cents.
UBS makes contrarian call on ThaiBev
Source: Chan Chao Peh | Publish date: Fri, 19 Jul 22:32 | >> Read article in News website
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WITH GROWING REGIONAL consumer demand as the backdrop, Thai Beverage, the leading maker of drinks from white spirits to green tea, has been rated favourably by analysts for its strong base and growth potential. Last year, the company is estimated to have cornered more than three quarters of the spirit and one third of the beer sales respectively in its home market.
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Time for a REIT!
debt levels are at about 90X. Singtel debts is only about 3-4X.
Proceed with care.
Formation of the classical " head & shoulders" - a negative chart pattern. Aggressive traders may attempt to " play the bounce" , as the share price approaches the $0.55 key support level, but be quick to cut loss and switch to a sell trade on a downside break of the support line, as such a move would result in confirmation of the " head and shoulders" chart pattern, and could portend subsequent tests of next support levels at $0.50 and $0.45.
This week chance to rebound liao, hopefully next week is a good week!
I think the stock is oversold at the moment. Debt and listing of Reits are part of bussiness.
They can go ahead and do that as long as they are having good sales and bussiness model.
This is a common mans two cents.
Good to load up some at this point. Don't forget it is a index stock and many fundmanagers buy these stocks for their portfolio.
Cheers.
Sianz, not another day of big falling :(