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Gold & metals

                       

 

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 6/17/2013

 

FOMC TO MEET MARKETS SHOW POSITIVE START

U.S. stock futures are making a move upward Monday morning as investors look forward to this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The hope is that the meeting will shed enough light on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan for tapering that investors can relax. This week’s upcoming data includes a manufacturer’s report and a home builder’s index.  Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, said,  “We suspect that this week (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke will continue to say tapering will happen at some point, could happen this year but will be data-dependent, and that we are still a long way off from removing the very easy policy stance the Fed has in place.”

As the market and U.S. dollar index’s rise in anticipation of the FOMC meeting, the Gold price is heading the other way. The Gold price had closed last week on a higher note on strong bullion demand, a drop in the U.S. stock market and rising tension in the Middle East. Today, investors are once again considering the actions the Fed may take.  Any easing of bond-buying programs, raising the prospect of future rate tightening, is seen as unfavorable for Gold.  Rising rates also raise the opportunity cost for holding a Precious Metal that has no interest rate.

At 9:02 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,385.80, Down $3.80.
• Silver, $21.91, Down $0.17.

 

Downward-sloping channel means don’t go for gold

  By Thomas H. Kee Jr.  ....

Gold is in a longer-term downward-sloping channel, and that presents serious concerns. A few weeks ago, I advised my clients to buy the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, but we did it based on the direction offered by one of our real-time trading reports. At the time, that report identified longer-term support around $131. Our entry point for that trade ended up being slightly above $132, but since that triggered, support has changed, as has the trade.

By definition, a downward-sloping channel is defined by a series of lower highs and lower lows, and over time, support levels decline as a result. That is exactly what has happened over the past few weeks in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF.

According to that same analysis, which is dynamic and changes as the price of GLD changes, the downward-sloping channel in GLD has caused support to decline to much lower levels, which, in turn, increases our risk threshold for the trade.

When we trade near support and carefully select our entry points according to those observations, we also have the ability to control our risk if support breaks, we can efficiently get out of the trade. But in this case, the downward-sloping support line that exists for GLD has expanded our risk threshold, and that is not OK.

In addition, the resistance line of this same trading channel has been declining, and that means the upside potential for this same trade has also diminished. The combination of declining support and declining price targets given the downward-sloping channel that has developed over the past few months for GLD has caused me to pull that trade and recommend to clients that they get out of the position.

At the same time, I recognize that institutional investors seem more interested in gold now than they have been in the recent past, but those headlines have nothing to do with my decision. The analysis that helps us arrive at these is based on price action, and when it comes down to it, price is all that matters.

In my opinion, the downward-sloping trendline that currently exists in GLD has expanded the risks and diminished upside potential, and that is enough for me to look elsewhere for profitable trading ideas.

 

New up phase for gold?

By Mike Paulenoff ....

While the sub-discipline of price and time cycles within the larger study of technical analysis just might be way too far afield for many market watchers, I am nevertheless fascinated by periodicity exhibited by indexes, commodities, FX, Treasurys, etc. I have come to appreciate that any subtle market idiosyncrasies should not be ignored but instead monitored along with other more traditional technical studies and indicators.

My big-picture cycle work for spot gold is represented by a five-and-a-half- to six-month low-to-low trading-day periodicity. This cycle has been reasonably accurate going back to 2001, which means that every 5.5 to 6 months since the gold bull market began, the price structure has established a tradable, if not very significant, low.

As fate would have it, May 2, 2013, represented the next optimal date for a cycle low after the prior cycle low occurred nearly six months prior, on Nov. 12, 2012. Let's notice on the chart that the November 2012 " low" was, in fact, not far from the October 2012 high, which means that the cycle that ended in May 2013 exhibited a severely left, or bearish, " translation."

By contrast, the cycle that started last year, in mid-May 2012, exhibited a severely right, or bullish, translation in that prices climbed for the vast majority of the 5.5- to 6-month cycle duration.

All of which brings us to the present, where we see that the April 16, 2013, low at $1321.50 and the May 20, 2013, low at $1338.05 have straddled the May 2 date for an optimal cycle low. All of the action off of a potential double bottom that straddled the optimal timeframe for a major cycle low is, if nothing else, a major " warning signal" that the decline from the October 2012 high at $1796.30 is complete and that spot gold is bottoming in preparation for a surprisingly powerful advance.

From a cycle perspective, the main question is what characteristics the new cycle will display: Left (bearish) or Right (bullish) Translation? In that the cycle that just ended exhibited acute Left Translation, there is an overwhelming likelihood that the current cycle (starting May 2013) will alternate toward a definitively Right Translation.

With the new cycle about 22%-24% complete (since its May 2 optimal low date), some fireworks could start any hour now, which will inaugurate the initial up-phase of the new cycle. This period should be very supportive of gold prices at the very least, and possibly will propel gold -- and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -- considerably higher during the next 6-8 weeks.

 

 

How a Gold Fetish is Killing India's Economy

Across global markets, gold has lost its glimmer.

Investors are fleeing the yellow metal, whose price has slumped more than 10% over the past three months.

But Indians are so gold crazy they're sacrificing their currency and their country's economy in the bargain.

By buying up billions of dollars worth of foreign gold, they are sending Indian cash overseas, disrupting the balance money entering and leaving the country, and thus driving down the value of the rupee. That in turn makes key imports *more costly*, and makes it harder for business to pay international loans.

" If for one year there are no gold imports, it will change the current account deficit story of the country," said Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Thursday. " Indians think they are buying gold in rupees. Actually they are buying gold in dollars."

India is the world's biggest gold importer, soaking up a third of the world's supply every year. Gold is the country's biggest foreign purchase after oil. The impact? The current account deficit (the net outflow of money) is 5.4% of GDP, about double what economists recommend.

" I once again appeal to everyone to resist the temptation to buy gold," Chidambaram said. " This will show positive impact on every aspect of the Indian economy."

While India's current account deficit is too high, the real concern is whether enough money is flowing into the country to make up the difference, Bibek Debroy, an economist affiliated with the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, told GlobalPost. And there things get extra tricky.

" The worry for the government really is that whatever capital inflows we have are in the nature of portfolio investments" — such as stock purchases — " which tend to come and go," Debroy said. In contrast, direct investment in factories and in other ventures tend to carry long-term benefits, and the capital remains regardless of short term market fluctuations.

" So we should really be asking, 'Why aren't investments coming in?' — rather than picking on people who are buying gold."

According to Chidambaram, India's gold imports fell from an average of $135 million in the first half of May to $36 million in the second half of the month, but he neglected to mention the reason: This year the Akshaya Tritiya festival, the second-biggest holiday for buying gold, fell on May 13.

 

Jim Rogers on buying gold ....

Rogers also addressed one of his favorite topics: gold. He says he’s “not selling and will buy more if it keeps dropping.”

He called for a correction on gold last month (congratulating himself he says, “sometimes I do get it right!”), but says it could stand to go down a bit more from a tech perspective.  Given that, he thinks gold will be a buy based on fundamentals. Gold rose Friday on those reports that the Fed wants to calm everyone down.

More commodities insight from Jim:

• Natural gas is worth a look as it’s had a big collapse
• Agriculture: A great long-term story

 

 

  Gold prices dropped more than 1% Thursday and currently hover around $1,377 an ounce.

  Societe General's commodity analysts think gold could hit $1,150 in 2014 as investors rush out of their gold ETF holdings at a faster pace. The SPDR Gold Shares Trust fell 1% Thursday and is down nearly 18% this year.

Soc Gen's analysts said gold has been in a long-term bubble as inflation wary investors plowed into the precious metal as a hedge. Now that inflation concerns have ebbed, investors, they say, will sell out.

 

Next stn for Gold - $1188/- huat...argh

 

 

 

 

 

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Weekly Gold & Silver Market Recap – 6/14/2013

 

GOLD PRICE ENDS THE WEEK MOVING UP

As the week began there was not much news that moved the cost of Gold. Metals prices reacted quietly after news broke that credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s raised the U.S. credit outlook from negative to stable. This announcement will likely create commotion in the market place as the U.S. has recently seen improved labor-market conditions, which could lead the Federal Reserve to cut back or discontinue further quantitative easing. “Any good news for the economy is not so good for Gold. The debate about when the Fed will taper or end stimulus continues to pressure,” Walter Hellwig of BB& T Wealth Management said. On Tuesday, the Gold price lowered as the effects of the Bank of Japan’s announcement that they will not extend their stimulus were felt. The BoJ’s decision may be the beginning of the end of the era of loose monetary policy. Gold has already suffered from talk coming out of the U.S. Federal Reserve as they consider when to end their monetary easing program.  Marex Spectron's head of Precious Metals David Govett said, “The view is now that the Fed will taper quantitative easing. If that happens, it's negative for Gold. A lot of the rally Gold has had in the last three years has been down to QE.” Financial news out of Europe gave Gold a boost Wednesday when European equities rose and U.S. equities lowered. “Thinking about safe havens versus risk-on assets,  in the short term Gold might be subdued as money goes into other asset classes,” Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said. However, ongoing signals for loose monetary policy in efforts to stimulate lagging global economies are expected to have a long-term bullish impact on Gold and other Precious Metals. Gold is up slightly headed into the weekend as prices continue to remain relatively range-bound. The current price pattern Gold is experiencing is largely due to a  lack of clear-cut expectations  regarding the Fed’s future plans for monetary easing. “The Fed meeting next week has kept a lot of people on the sidelines,” Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS, said. “We may have some moves next week after the FOMC (meeting).” The validity of perpetuating quantitative easing (QE) measures that have been so essential to driving the price of Gold up since 2010 is now coming into question. There are factions among Federal Reserve officials who want to begin tapering the stimulus program and those who believe any discussion concerning a reduction in the level of stimulus is premature.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE CAUSING CONFUSION

One of the main reasons for the lack of movement in the Precious Metals market this week is due to the lack of direction given by the United States Federal Reserve. Next week the Fed will announce more details of their future plans concerning monetary easing. Investors will likely keep their eyes on central bank policies, specifically from the U.S. Federal Reserve.  Matthew Sherwood, the Sydney-based head of investment market research at Perpetual Ltd., said, “There’s lots of confusion around the world at present about what central bank policy means for the outlook of the global economy, earnings and valuations. The Fed is likely to continue to be ambiguous about its next step, probably because it’s not sure. This will see markets continue to be volatile.” While there is a lack of facts being provided, plenty of speculation abounds. Portfolio manager Robert Spina of the Spina Group at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management shared his thoughts on how the Fed may approach continuing or winding down quantitative easing. Spina said, “I don't see them tapering until the fourth quarter, the economy is still on edge, but I do see them starting to taper.” On Thursday the Gold market, along with most other financial markets, was waiting on news from the U.S. Federal Reserve next week regarding their stimulus program. “The sentiment is still very divided over whether the Fed will taper or not,” Joyce Liu, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore, said. “Due to the lack of major market-moving events, people are just trading on technicals until some senior Fed officials say something before the FOMC meeting next week,” she said, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee. The Gold price rose in early-morning trading on Friday after a late report by the Wall Street Journal Thursday suggested that  the Federal Reserve isn’t ready to end quantitative easing  (QE). The report states that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will say that QE tapering doesn’t necessarily mean the end of QE. The QE program was only part of the ultra-loose monetary policy enacted by the Fed, with near-zero interest rates also very supportive of the Gold price. AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver wrote, “The Fed will only start to slow and then unwind its stimulus programs when it’s completely comfortable that the economic recovery is self-sustaining. [Bernanke will also likely stress that] interest rate hikes are still a long way away.” Until the official meeting next Wednesday the markets will continue to be fueled by speculation.

At 4:45 pm (EDT), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1391.50, Up $11.70.
• Silver, $22.11, Up $0.41.

 

           

 

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 6/14/2013

 

REPORT: BERNANKE TO EASE TAPERING FEARS

The Gold price rose in early-morning trading after a late report by the Wall Street Journal Thursday suggested that the Federal Reserve isn’t ready to end quantitative easing (QE).  The report states that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will say that QE tapering doesn’t necessarily mean the end of QE.  The QE program was only part of the ultra-loose monetary policy enacted by the Fed, with near-zero interest rates also very supportive of the Gold price.  AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver wrote, “The Fed will only start to slow and then unwind its stimulus programs when it’s completely comfortable that the economic recovery is self-sustaining.  [Bernanke will also likely stress that] interest rate hikes are still a long way away.”

U.S. stock futures are trading lower after the release of the Producer Price Index, which showed a larger-than-expected jump in prices.  Investors continue to analyze economic data released throughout the week for clues on the Fed’s next move.  Scott Redler of T3Live.com said, “I think the Fed watches the stock market more than many believe, and I think the reaction of the stock market is more important to them than they let on.  I don’t think that they are technical analysts, but I do think that if we continue to hold the 50-day [average, in stocks,] over the next few weeks and resume the uptrend, they could start tapering in the September meeting, perhaps from $85 billion down to $50-60 billion.”

At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,389.30, Up $9.50.
• Silver, $22.29, Up $0.59.

 

胡 立 阳 ： 趋 势 的 力 量 黄 金 熊 市 漫 长

最 近 有 投 资 朋 友 问 我 ， 因 为 家 中 长 辈 总 说 ， 黄 金 最 能 保 值 ， 从 2012年 10月 起 ， 只 要 黄 金 下 跌 ， 他 就 趁 机 逢 低 承 接 ， 由 现 货 买 到 期 货 ， 一 连 买 了 五 次 ， 结 局 是 愈 套 愈 多 ， 真 不 知 如 何 是 好 ？

我 要 这 么 说 ， 在 投 资 世 界 里 ， 没 有 一 项 商 品 只 会 涨 不 会 跌 ， 如 果 方 向 判 断 错 误 ， 下 跌 时 去 低 接 比 上 涨 时 去 追 高 更 危 险 ！

以 股 票 为 例 ， 常 认 为 股 价 已 经 跌 得 差 不 多 了 ， 结 果 却 是 越 买 越 便 宜 ， 当 然 会 令 人 欲 哭 无 泪 。 还 有 一 种 状 况 是 ， 股 价 在 跌 深 之 后 开 始 出 现 诱 人 的 反 弹 ， 很 多 人 在 高 档 虽 幸 免 于 难 ， 但 最 后 还 是 赶 搭 上 了 套 牢 列 车 。 股 价 涨 来 跌 去 ， 过 程 中 究 竟 是 该 买 该 卖 ？ 其 实 大 多 数 人 根 本 不 知 道 答 案 ， 都 只 是 在 赌 自 己 的 运 气 。

无 论 是 个 股 、 整 体 类 股 、 大 盘 指 数 ， 甚 至 是 黄 金 等 商 品 期 货 ， 在 决 定 买 卖 之 前 ， 一 定 要 先 知 道 它 们 的 涨 跌 趋 势 ， 倘 若 趋 势 是 向 上 ， 顺 势 而 为 的 买 进 就 合 乎 道 理 ， 因 为 胜 算 较 大 ； 但 如 果 趋 势 是 向 下 ， 避 之 唯 恐 不 及 ， 怎 能 不 把 钱 当 一 回 事 的 还 去 凑 热 闹 ？ 那 么 ， 要 如 何 才 能 得 知 趋 势 呢 ？ 千 万 不 可 自 以 为 是 的 瞎 猜 ， 必 须 观 察 价 格 的 线 型 图 。

由 于 价 格 的 趋 势 无 法 在 三 、 两 天 之 内 快 速 形 成 ， 因 此 不 需 要 每 天 盯 着 计 算 机 去 看 日 线 图 ， 每 周 由 周 线 图 就 可 以 知 道 状 况 ！ 对 了 ， 在 周 线 图 上 要 固 定 设 定 一 根 10周 移 动 平 均 线 ， 而 我 的 研 究 结 果 是 ， 当 10周 线 是 在 上 升 状 态 ， 就 表 示 趋 势 是 向 上 的 ， 在 这 个 情 况 下 ， 当 股 价 涨 多 了 出 现 下 跌 ， 那 么 拉 回 可 能 都 是 再 上 车 的 机 会 ， 而 且 股 价 拉 回 时 越 接 近 仍 在 上 升 中 的 10周 线 越 可 以 捡 到 便 宜 。 相 反 的 ， 当 10周 线 是 处 于 下 滑 过 程 ， 不 但 不 能 买 进 ， 还 要 趁 任 何 的 反 弹 来 出 清 手 中 持 股 ， 因 为 反 弹 结 束 之 后 ， 价 格 还 会 继 续 下 跌 。

最 近 ， 早 已 由 每 盎 司 1920美 元 高 档 一 路 下 滑 且 长 期 积 弱 不 振 的 黄 金 ， 竟 然 在 今 年 五 月 份 再 由 1600元 暴 跌 ， 两 、 三 天 之 后 就 重 摔 到 了 1360元 。

由 于 金 价 看 来 已 很 便 宜 ， 立 即 就 掀 起 了 一 波 媒 体 报 导 的 “大 妈 购 金 热 潮 ”。 由 于 代 表 金 价 涨 跌 趋 势 的 10周 线 一 直 是 维 持 在 徒 峭 的 下 跌 阶 段 ， 此 刻 伸 手 去 接 黄 金 ， 会 像 是 在 挺 而 走 险 的 去 接 一 把 由 空 中 直 落 而 下 的 尖 刀 ， 挺 吓 人 的 ！

其 实 ， 更 让 人 担 心 的 是 ， 参 考 历 史 记 录 ， 包 括 黄 金 在 内 的 一 些 原 物 料 商 品 ， 常 出 现 “十 年 牛 市 、 二 十 年 熊 市 ”的 循 环 走 势 ， 捡 便 宜 可 别 捡 到 烫 手 山 芋 ！

总 之 ， 不 管 你 买 的 是 什 么 ， 如 果 全 然 不 知 它 的 涨 跌 趋 势 ， 就 等 于 是 在 蒙 着 眼 睛 过 马 路 ， 爱 莫 能 助 之 余 也 只 能 默 默 的 祝 福 了 ！

 

Are the Gold Bugs Wrong?0

By Casey Research

03:03PM 06/13/13

 

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 6/13/2013

 

PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE INFLUENCES FOR GOLD

Gold dropped by 1 percent today as further U.S. economic data reflected a positive toneto a healthy recovery for the country. The market will patiently wait for any news to break at next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting for signs that the central bank will scale back quantitative easing. “Gold prices are vulnerable to additional declines over the next few months. You have reduced import demand for Gold from India, healthy supply growth this year, and overall reductions in investor interest,” Erica Rannestad, Precious Metals analyst at commodities firm CPM Group, said. India’s government has increased the import duties on Gold by a third and restricted Gold financing by banks to cut its current account deficit.

Precious Metals have been in a constant struggle against a few major factors that have hit the market recently. Concern over inflation is low in spite of continued quantitative easing measures the global economy is seen as improving an increasing amount of Europeans are fleeing the euro and buying U.S. dollars, which pushes Gold down and an unexpected large sale may have contributed to April’s big drop in prices. According to Casey Research, these are only transient factors that may lead  investors to remain bullish on Gold. The evidence, they say, is how investors responded to the crash by purchasing physical Gold at unprecedented levels due to their strong belief and proof in history that the hard asset would rise again.

At 5:15 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1386.80, Down $7.20.
• Silver, $21.90, Down $0.02.

 

Gold is Too Quiet…Expect Something Soon

Weekly

Chart  Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

 

Commodity  Analysis: Near term, watch for resistance from the ‘meridian’ line that has proved important on numerous occasions. The line is at about 1440 this week. 1367 is still estimated support (low this week was 1365). Failure to hold that level on a daily closing basis would be worrisome.

 

Commodity Trading Strategy: Flat

 

LEVELS: 1307 1321 1367 1414 1440 1470