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Yes, 4Q08 is still challenging. The unknown factor is the inventory writedown on falling CO prices. However, I think this should have a smaller impact in 4Q than in 3Q cos CO price range in 3Q was approx USD60 and that of 4Q is approx USD40 (to date).
Refining margins for Oct08 (1st mth of 4Q) seems more promising than Jul and Aug 08 (first 2 mths of 3Q)....so, perhaps 4Q RM, main factor of SPC's income stream, will be better than 3Q.
In 3Q, SGD was strong but relatively stable against USD (1.35 to 1.40) but weaker in 4Q (1.45 to 1.52). The weaker SGD should bode well to the bottomline for Downstream (RM) and Upstream (oil/gas sales) revenue but will not be so good for inventory writedown....so this factor is difficult to predict.
So, my est of 4Q08 eps of about 6c is just a gut feel guess.
My est of FY09 eps of 30-40c is because I think RM will remain moderate......USD 3-7 per bbl and CO will not be too strong (USD 40 - 60 per bbl)
Thanks shplayer for sharing ur view.
My opinion is that the 4th qtr can be a challenging one for spc.The revenue is falling and cost cutting have not taken full effect.So the 4th qtr can be a breakeven one or maybe in red.The closing inventory will be interesting,then we can see the forward revenue for FY09.
The other issue which in my amatuer mind is maybe SPC could have bot the CO at the height and after refining has to sell it at current px,which is lower.
Also,can the strong S$ have any impact?
Thus,i concur that spc will endeavour to pay ard 16 to 20 cts in their final.
The 1st half of 09...my esti is 25 to 30 cts eps.And interim divvy will be about 9 cts.
This make the year 2009 divvy of about 25 cts.
Just my opinion.
If you look at FY07 and FY06, eps is 99c and 55c respectively. Co. div was 60c and 35c respectively.....this is about 60% div payout. Assume this is their div policy.
YTD08 (9mth) eps is 54c. and say, the est FY08 is 60c. Then, FY08 div should be about 36c....of which 20c alsready paid. So, final div would be around 16c.
Looking fwd, say FY09 eps comes in at 30 to 40c, then div will be between 18c to 24c......at current price ($2.00) this will give about 9 to 12% yield.
But also consider NAV.....currently at $3.43....of which approx 70% ($2.36) is on its plant and machinery...(50% share of SRC refinery). Bear in mind that plant & m/c are depreciateing assets........and 'replacement' cost is much higher than the book value.......this is another consideration for the inherent value of SPC.
stupidfool ( Date: 06-Dec-2008 21:06) Posted:
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I prefer Sembcorp Marine for long term
darkweaver93 ( Date: 07-Dec-2008 22:48) Posted:
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Personally, I think SPC is quite a good stock. I mean regardless of whatever price you buy in (just below 2.00), you will definitely earn money in the long run. Furthermore, SPC offers quite an attractive dividend yield. Hey Livermore, you said there are better energy stocks than SPC? If you don't mind, can you share with us please? So far, SPC seems to be the most attractive to me.
if can get at 1.70, good enough.
Putting a price for your buy is at least a guide But always better see consolidation or stabilisation at the price you wish to buy from chart i.e for instance $1.70 (SPC) for some people. If there is no consolidation and the trend is downwards it will just cut through below $1.70
In energy stocks there are better ones compared to SPC
will b d 1st counter in my empty portfolio shud it hit 1.70
Not in my portfolio
HLJHLJ
No worries.
SF,
My apologies. Did not mean it this way. Indeed, for those buying many lots, few cents make a diff. I'm not in that cat. Anyway, enjoy the discussion. I'll continue to read.
SPC => I think oil has some way to go down (Merril has reported on this in papers) If so, be careful with SPC. It goes in tandem with oil.
all the best.
HLJHLJ
this is a forum mah....ppl who are free and enjoy sharing come to SJ mah.
I stay in HDB,so no rose bed and flowers to smell.
btw,if one buys 50 lots of spc...10 ct can be 5k.
Aiyoh, many are debating on whether 1.5 or 1.6 or 1.7 etc etc. Just a few cents only, why bother to waste our time on all these. Must well spend your time with your family, smell roses etc. One simple way is to apportion different percent to certain prices etc, and the price will be averaged. No offence, just a suggestion only. LOL.
Last year the divvy is 60 cts.
Assume,this year it maintains....wow....yield of 30%!!!!!.
Possible????
The px of SPC has fallen about 70% from the high...so if divvy also fall 70%,it means divvy is 18 cents.
Thus yield is 9%......stilll very good yield.
Of course i am simplfying a bit here.
Fuel is an essential commod. Moreover, north hemisphere winter is coming.
Furthermore, not sure how OPEC deliberately wanted to intervene the CO price
by cutting the output.
Agreed, its a good bargain when its px comes near 1.70, taking into consideration of its
expected better profit margin in last Qtr owing to lower CO cost. Looking forward to
its normally high div pay out also could be another encouraging factor to consider.
CA applies.
$1.50 by middle of next year.
idesa 168:) agree with ur open-minded statement......anyway newbies wud follow analyst, lol......cheers!
1.50 remote, 1.70 shud when sti at 1400 [it was 1.77 when sti was slightly more than 1,400 abt 2 mths ago], of course falling oil pxs bring it 2 where it is now i.e. 2.00
Do you think it will hit around 1.50 some time next year? I mean since the economy next year would most likely worsen, in addition to the falling oil prices. What other factors do you think will contribute to the downfall of this stocks?