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" Optimism about an improving macro environment and fund flows
from bonds to equities should continue to underpin equity
markets," said DBS Vickers in a note.
The brokerage said it expects 2013 to be another strong year
for offshore and marine companies, as sustained high oil prices
will mean continued investment into the sector.
Oil services and equipment providers such as Ezion Holdings
Ltd
outperform rigbuilders like Keppel Corp
contract wins help to improve earnings visibility.
Loading........50%
not cheap enough 
load cheaper good !!!
i love ezra
ezra hongbao
sgxtrader2013 ( Date: 17-Jan-2013 13:59) Posted:
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Downtrend Sentiment
Loaded!
Yes.
tonylim ( Date: 16-Jan-2013 20:07) Posted:
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EZRA in accumulation phase?
Peter_Pan ( Date: 16-Jan-2013 15:24) Posted:
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Ok
steadylar ( Date: 16-Jan-2013 18:00) Posted:
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Price is consolidating. I recall that the previous qtr's earnings also dragged down by high costs, and this qtrly report again showed that high cost caused net profit to go below-view, adding to the disappointmt abt Ezra's cost mgmt. Dont buy yet until price has finished consolidating which may take weeks.
would suggest to cut loss soonest possible, then either switch to one with good earnings, or stay sideline for the time being.
Credit Suisse buying.
Anybody knows whether it will rebound to what price again ? I bought it at a high price.. realli feel like selling it :(
it is good to go another round on ezra at discounted price again
it is good for those who have miss the run, another chance given
good days ahead
cheers ! smile :)
Come-back kid.
poor souls who chased last week.
just bought on last Friday 15 lots at 1.305 during closing. Since can hold, I'll hold it first and see how's this month px goes otherwise lost quite a lots :(
No wonder I hear 1.17 level !!
Ezra Holdings: Results below expectations (Neutral, S$1.25, TP: S$1.15)
Jason Saw (+65 6232 3871, [email]jason.saw@sg.oskgroup.com[/email])
1QFY13 net profit of US$6.7m (-7% QoQ, -49% YoY) was disappointing. The
weak net profit was due to lower gross margins and higher admin, interest
and income tax expenses. We see little near-term re-rating catalyst. In our
view, contract wins are unlikely to excite the market as investors are looking
for a sharp improvement in earnings (after a series of earnings
disappointment) while debt level remains elevated. We cut our FY13-14F
EPS estimates by 28-38% (from a low base) to reflect weaker subsea
margins. Maintain Neutral on the stock with an unchanged TP of S$1.15
based on 0.85x P/B.
Strong topline growth but bottomline hit by lower margins and higher
expenses. 1QFY13 headline net profit of US$6.7m (-49%) was lower despite
revenue rising +54% YoY. The weak net profit was due to: (1) decline in overall
gross profit margin from 19.2% in 1QFY12 to 17.9% in 1QFY13 (2) admin
expenses rose +34% YoY (3) interest expense up +28% YoY and (4) higher
taxes due to withholding taxes on vessels operating in overseas water. Ezra also
recognised a US$3.8m gain from disposal of fixed assets, a US$0.6m gain from
fair value changes in FVTPL but offset by US$0.3m forex loss. Operating cash
flow remains negative at -US$64.8m due to growing working capital needs.
Subsea profitability below-par competition may cap margin expansion.
Subsea gross margin was 14-15% vs. 17-18% in 4QFY12 due to lower fleet
efficiency. In the past three months, Ezra has secured US$360m new orders for
the offshore support vessel (OSV) and subsea divisions. We estimate that Ezra
has a net subsea order book of around US$900m and OSV backlog of US$500m.
While we expect the subsea spending to remain robust on high crude oil prices,
aggressive bids from established and emerging players may cap margin
expansion. Delay in project implementation is also a risk to earnings.
Cut FY13-14F earnings by 28-38% on lower subsea margins. We lower our
FY13F subsea gross profit margin from 21.0% to 18.0% to reflect the lower
subsea margins in 1QFY13 (estimated at 14-15%) and lower fleet efficiency. We
now estimate FY13-14F net profit (before preferred dividends) of US$29m and
US$58m respectively. Consensus net profit estimates for FY13F ranged between
US$33m and US$92m.
Valuations: Maintain Neutral with an unchanged TP of S$1.15. Our TP is
based on FY13F P/B of 0.85x. In the last 12 months, Ezra traded between 0.7x
and 1.1x P/B.
Ezra Holdings: Results below expectations (Neutral, S$1.25, TP: S$1.15)
Jason Saw (+65 6232 3871, [email]jason.saw@sg.oskgroup.com[/email])
1QFY13 net profit of US$6.7m (-7% QoQ, -49% YoY) was disappointing. The
weak net profit was due to lower gross margins and higher admin, interest
and income tax expenses. We see little near-term re-rating catalyst. In our
view, contract wins are unlikely to excite the market as investors are looking
for a sharp improvement in earnings (after a series of earnings
disappointment) while debt level remains elevated. We cut our FY13-14F
EPS estimates by 28-38% (from a low base) to reflect weaker subsea
margins. Maintain Neutral on the stock with an unchanged TP of S$1.15
based on 0.85x P/B.
Strong topline growth but bottomline hit by lower margins and higher
expenses. 1QFY13 headline net profit of US$6.7m (-49%) was lower despite
revenue rising +54% YoY. The weak net profit was due to: (1) decline in overall
gross profit margin from 19.2% in 1QFY12 to 17.9% in 1QFY13 (2) admin
expenses rose +34% YoY (3) interest expense up +28% YoY and (4) higher
taxes due to withholding taxes on vessels operating in overseas water. Ezra also
recognised a US$3.8m gain from disposal of fixed assets, a US$0.6m gain from
fair value changes in FVTPL but offset by US$0.3m forex loss. Operating cash
flow remains negative at -US$64.8m due to growing working capital needs.
Subsea profitability below-par competition may cap margin expansion.
Subsea gross margin was 14-15% vs. 17-18% in 4QFY12 due to lower fleet
efficiency. In the past three months, Ezra has secured US$360m new orders for
the offshore support vessel (OSV) and subsea divisions. We estimate that Ezra
has a net subsea order book of around US$900m and OSV backlog of US$500m.
While we expect the subsea spending to remain robust on high crude oil prices,
aggressive bids from established and emerging players may cap margin
expansion. Delay in project implementation is also a risk to earnings.
Cut FY13-14F earnings by 28-38% on lower subsea margins. We lower our
FY13F subsea gross profit margin from 21.0% to 18.0% to reflect the lower
subsea margins in 1QFY13 (estimated at 14-15%) and lower fleet efficiency. We
now estimate FY13-14F net profit (before preferred dividends) of US$29m and
US$58m respectively. Consensus net profit estimates for FY13F ranged between
US$33m and US$92m.
Valuations: Maintain Neutral with an unchanged TP of S$1.15. Our TP is
based on FY13F P/B of 0.85x. In the last 12 months, Ezra traded between 0.7x
and 1.1x P/B.
A different view:
Ezra Holdings: Share price has run up
downgrade to HOLD
● Weak 1QFY13 results
● 2HFY13 expected to be better
● Downgrade to HOLD after price
run-up
Soft 1QFY13 results
Ezra Holdings (Ezra) reported a 54% YoY rise
in revenue to US$278.7m and a 44% rise in
gross profit to US$49.9m in 1QFY13. But
higher administrative expenses, a lower
share of profit of associated companies, and
a higher tax rate led to a 49% fall in net
profit to US$6.8m. Stripping out exceptional
items such as fair value changes of financial
instruments and forex changes, we estimate
core net profit to be around US$4.3m, 16%
lower than 1QFY12. This represents only
about 13% of our full year core net profit
estimate of US$33m, which is already one of
the lowest in the street.
Secures contracts for subsea and marine
work
The group also announced new contract wins
worth up to US$160m for several projects,
including 1) US$85m of subsea work for an
oil major in Asia Pacific, a client in Malaysia
and exercise of options and variation orders
for Statoil, and 2) five charter contracts
worth about US$75m (average tenor 2.6
years, including options).
Order book remains healthy
The outstanding order book for the subsea
division stood at US$850m as of end
1QFY13, while the total bid book remains at
about US$4.4b. We estimate about 60% of
the US$4.4b amount may be awarded in
FY13, with a success rate of 35%. This
translates to an estimated new order win of
about US$925m for the subsea division in
FY13. We estimate Ezra has secured about
48% of our new order win assumption.
Limited upside downgrade to HOLD
Despite the soft 1QFY13 results, we expect
better performance in 2HFY13 as margins in
the subsea segment improve. However, as
Ezra’s share price has run up by about
18.5% since our last report on 3 Dec 2012,
we now see limited upside potential to our
fair value estimate of S$1.30. Downgrade to
HOLD. (Low Pei Han)
Ezra Holdings: Share price has run up
downgrade to HOLD
● Weak 1QFY13 results
● 2HFY13 expected to be better
● Downgrade to HOLD after price
run-up
Soft 1QFY13 results
Ezra Holdings (Ezra) reported a 54% YoY rise
in revenue to US$278.7m and a 44% rise in
gross profit to US$49.9m in 1QFY13. But
higher administrative expenses, a lower
share of profit of associated companies, and
a higher tax rate led to a 49% fall in net
profit to US$6.8m. Stripping out exceptional
items such as fair value changes of financial
instruments and forex changes, we estimate
core net profit to be around US$4.3m, 16%
lower than 1QFY12. This represents only
about 13% of our full year core net profit
estimate of US$33m, which is already one of
the lowest in the street.
Secures contracts for subsea and marine
work
The group also announced new contract wins
worth up to US$160m for several projects,
including 1) US$85m of subsea work for an
oil major in Asia Pacific, a client in Malaysia
and exercise of options and variation orders
for Statoil, and 2) five charter contracts
worth about US$75m (average tenor 2.6
years, including options).
Order book remains healthy
The outstanding order book for the subsea
division stood at US$850m as of end
1QFY13, while the total bid book remains at
about US$4.4b. We estimate about 60% of
the US$4.4b amount may be awarded in
FY13, with a success rate of 35%. This
translates to an estimated new order win of
about US$925m for the subsea division in
FY13. We estimate Ezra has secured about
48% of our new order win assumption.
Limited upside downgrade to HOLD
Despite the soft 1QFY13 results, we expect
better performance in 2HFY13 as margins in
the subsea segment improve. However, as
Ezra’s share price has run up by about
18.5% since our last report on 3 Dec 2012,
we now see limited upside potential to our
fair value estimate of S$1.30. Downgrade to
HOLD. (Low Pei Han)
Already 4 black candles. No 5 likely... $1.10 likely short term then maybe see how..
DBS Vickers Securities
Ezra posted 1Q13 results below expectations, but improving
profitability on Offshore Support seen, which generated gross
margins of ~24% (+6ppt q-o-q) on better utilisation rates.
Separately, Ezra announced a batch of contract wins worth
> US$160m from across its business divisions. In FY13 YTD, c.
US$400m of subsea work has been secured, vs our full-year
assumption of US$1bn, lifting its current backlog to c.
US$930m. We have fine-tuned our FY13/14F earnings
forecasts by -9%/-2% respectively. We expect bumpy road
ahead to recovery
Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$1.58 (Prev S$
1.30) pegged to 1.15x FY14P/BV (previously 0.9x FY13 P/BV),
in line with its historical average valuation post-GFC.
Ezra Holdings- 1QFY13: Disappointing results offset by strong subsea contract wins.
(EZRA SP/BUY/S$1.25/Target: S$1.46)
FY13F PE (x): 17.1
FY14F PE (x): 11.5
Below expectations. 1QFY13 net profit came in at US$6.8m (-49% yoy). Compared with consensus net profit forecast of US$73m and our net profit forecast of US$95m, 1QFY13 results are below expectations. Of the US$98.2m increase in turnover, subsea services contributed the lion share of US$86.2m while offshore support services (
Management said that earnings are lumpy. Earnings in 2HFY13 are expected to be substantially higher than 1HFY13’s because of recognition timing of Ezra’s subsea orderbook (UOBKH estimates current orderbook at US$1b). Thus far in FY13, subsea contract wins have been good, totalling more than US$400m. Our projected subsea turnover of US$850m is doable. FY12 subsea turnover was US$552m.
Maintain BUY. Target price lowered to S$1.46 from S$1.53. We now adopt a P/B instead of a PE valuation. We value Ezra at 1.0x FY13F P/B. This is -1SD below its long-term mean of 1.8x.