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WOW! Closed at $2.98 today, must have some hidden agenda, watch out tomorrow for more price appreciation..
might wanna let go bit by bit
if I'm not wrong is abt 10% of surge for there few day.
so I think there might be some speculation is on going with this counter.....
since STI is rather red today.....
still not too sure what is going on.
28 Feb is the NOL annual result announcement day.
yah.. NOL usually drops whenever the crude oil price goes up. This time around it works exactly in the opp direction.
YongJiu, I was also contemplating selling some old stocks but was wondering usually the Bboys get info ahead of us, the small flies. Is there a chance NOL might be announcing fat dividend like last year and the bboys got wind of it? It was really fat if you remember. Also, we should also consider the report by Credit Suisse. The upgrade in target price is a little unusual.. from $2 to $3.20. a 60% increase! What do you think?
thinking of off-load all my old stock by now!!!
Fears of overcapacity have pushed many liners' share prices off their life peaks achieved in 2005, after a three-year industry boom and many analysts are still a bit sceptical over future freight rates.
Ten out of the 16 investment banks polled by Reuters Estimates rated China Shipping Container underperform or sell, four hold and only two, including Credit Suisse, outperform.
"Some excess capacity growth is expected to continue in the next few years," Credit Suisse said. "However, capacity growth will begin to ease after peaking in 2006 and continue to decrease until 2009, as orders placed today are slated for 2009 or 2010 delivery," it added.
Credit Suisse expects capacity to rise by 14% yoy over the next two years and demand growth to rise 12% over the next few years.
"Lower oil prices boosted shipping stocks in the past two months and there is no other special good news in the market," said Y.K. Chan strategist at Phillip Securities.
He said the rise on container shipping stocks on Monday was partly due to bargain hunting since the sector had lagged the recent market rally.
Credit Suisse has raised its rating for the Asian container shipping sector to "overweight", saying freight rates have bottomed and forecasting the beginning of an up-cycle in 2008.
The investment bank upgraded China Shipping Container Lines Co. Ltd. and Neptune Orient Lines to outperform from neutral, it said in a research report on Monday. It also raised Taiwan's Evergreen Marine, Wan Hai Lines and Yang Ming to outperform from underperform.
recommendation for shares in Singapore''s Neptune Orient Lines
to "outperform" from "neutral", saying it expected
container freight rates to bottom out this year.
"We believeaverage freight rates will be flat this year and
increase 5 percent in 2008. Based on our estimates, NOL''s current
share price is reflecting lower freight rates this year," Credit
Suisses analysts Andrew Lee and Peter Hilton said in a note to investors.
"We view NOL as a premium shipping line with the ability to
charge slightly higher rates than other lines due to its high
service quality. Further, the company is one of the better
managed shipping companies by successfully managing to continuously cut costs."
Credit Suisse raised its share price target for the
state-controlled firm to S$3.20 from S$2.
It said its average revenue a box fell 10% in the six weeks to 29 Dec from a year earlier, as more vessels entered service. Average revenue per 40-foot container fell to US$2,543 from 18 Nov to 29 Dec from a year earlier. NOL handled 12% more volume, totalling 244,800 boxes.
NOL, AP Moeller-Maersk A/S and other sea carriers have been charging less to move cargo since the second half of 2005 as a record number of new vessels are delivered. Higher fuel costs and port fees have also eroded their profits last year. NOL's average revenue dropped 7% to US$2,632 per box in 1 Jan to 29 Dec 2006, from a yearearlier. The shipping line moved 2.1m containers in the period, 8%more than a year earlier.
The problem it really take time to build!!
Vietnam Trade Growth Tests Infrastructure To Limits, Says Report
Research suggests transportation and logistics infrastructure requires significant new investment
Singapore, Ho Chi Minh City, 25 January 2007 ? Vietnam?s transition to a market economy and the fulfillment of its potential as a trading nation could be accelerated if it fast tracks the development of world-class transportation infrastructure and logistics systems, according to new research.
A white paper, entitled: ?Vietnam Transportation and Logistics: Challenges and Opportunities?, developed jointly by global growth consulting company Frost & Sullivan and global container shipping and logistics group Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) and its subsidiaries, APL and APL Logistics, examines various aspects of Vietnam?s transportation and logistics environment - from container shipping and ports to the cold chain.
The report highlights the enormous potential of Vietnam as one of the world?s fastest-growing sourcing and manufacturing locations. Its economy is forecast to grow by around 8 percent annually for the next decade. Business-friendly Government policies have led to increased inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Initiatives to further integrate with the world economy, including Vietnam?s recently secured membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), are likely to accelerate trade growth even more.
However, to cope with this expansion, Vietnam needs to address several major challenges such as improving its infrastructure and systems for transportation and logistics.
Launching the report in Ho Chi Minh City yesterday, NOL Group President & CEO, Dr Thomas Held, said: ?We hope this paper contributes to a better global understanding of Vietnam, and helps our customers navigate their way to opportunities in this exciting country.?
?The success Vietnam has seen is just the beginning. It has the potential to become a global trading power and a leading Asian logistics and shipping hub. But with great opportunities come great challenges. Vietnam?s development must be supported and facilitated by cargo handling facilities and related infrastructure of international standard. If it fails to do this, inefficiency, high costs and congestion could become a painful reality."
The NOL Group is well placed to study the Vietnam market. Its association with
the country began more than 16 years ago and it was the first
Singapore-based transportation and logistics company to establish
wholly owned operations in Vietnam on 1 January 2007. It is also the
major investor in the Vietnam International Container Terminal (VICT), which became the country?s first purpose-built container handling facility when it commenced operations in 1998.
?Vietnam has already experienced phenomenal growth, but this study reaffirms the need for more investment, expertise and infrastructure for the country to sit at the top table of Asia
?s trading nations,? said Tan Hua Joo, the NOL Group?s Managing Director in Vietnam.
"Vietnam joining the WTO will present tremendous international trade and manufacturing growth opportunities for global as well as domestic companies. Efficient logistics management will be a significant challenge for companies that want to capitalise on this growth. Having the right transportation and logistics partner with global capabilities, and local coverage will be a key factor for success in Vietnam," said Frost & Sullivan Partner, Kavan Mukhtyar.
Logistics Landscape
Vietnam?s
logistics industry is relatively under-developed. The report suggests
that the relative inefficiency of the air and ocean transportation system,
as well as landside infrastructure such as warehouses and distribution
facilities, is hampering the growth of efficient logistics practices in
the country.
Logistics outsourcing is nascent and highly fragmented with around 800 operators, which are mainly small local operators with limited coverage, service ranges and IT capabilities.
On a more positive note, the report adds that the Vietnamese Government is introducing measures to improve logistics infrastructure and the participation of international operators. But change will take time.
Container Shipping
The rapid growth of the Vietnam economy and
its closer integration with the global economy has been accompanied by
a surge in external trade volumes ? particularly in the past five years ?according
to the report. In this period, exports to Europe and the United States
(US) have grown at a faster rate than Asian volumes. However,
intra-Asia volumes continue to dominate ? contributing the bulk of the country?s total container volumes.
Ports
Over the
past 10 years, container volumes have increased by almost 20 percent.
However, the ports are facing a number of critical challenges,
including the lack of deepwater facilities that can receive ships of
more than 1,600 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit); old and inefficient ports; and a congested and under-developed landside infrastructure.
The report suggests the key commercial gateway of Ho Chi Minh City, which accounts for more than 70 percent of Vietnam?s container throughout, is facing serious congestion issues with existing port and landside infrastructure at near to full capacity, and planned new facilities not scheduled to be operational for several years.
Roads
New roads are urgently needed ? particularly in major urban areas such as Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, which face increasing traffic congestion.
?An improved road network will also open up more suburban and rural areas to development and provide new opportunities for the rural population to share in Vietnam?s economic success,? the report adds.
Rail and Air
Vietnam?s
rail and air facilities and network also lag behind international
standards and account for a disproportionately low share of the overall
transportation market, according to the report. The rapid development
of these modes will enhance Vietnam?s
domestic and international connectivity, which will support trade
growth as well as the transportation, logistics and tourism sectors.
Cold Chain
Vietnam?s produce ? particularly seafood, rice and coffee ? contribute around 30 percent of the country
?s
GDP. But the report states that Vietnam lacks an integrated cold chain.
WTO accession will see new domestic and international markets opening
and demand for specialised handling and transportation will rise
significantly. The cold chain space
is a major opportunity for international operators, many of whom have
already begun to launch initiatives to improve facilities and
infrastructure, the report concludes.Link to Executive Summary