Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

Ok small volume price drop, means most people is supporting this for longer term gain,

Stohastics momentum is on the way down, shortist dumping, due to small volume means a few dont believe this will hold and sell

Bollinger band is narrowing, good sign, price is at the lower supporting trend line, so it will be maintained by majority shareholders.

Conclusion, some minority dont believe that drives it down but majority still supporting it for long. I say buy in a few days time on dip before momentum change.

 

 

Finall got time to run thru the BIG results.

In my opinion, i think BIG mgmt did not give a very clear picture where they are heading and what will be next to bring BIG to another level. They only keep saying the same things ....

Below are some of the points that are worthy to take a look (at least for me)

1) Biomatrix sales .... did i see wrongly ... Q4 sales is lower than Q3 but they said is due to forex and actual Q4 sales volume is higher. But even with the forex correction... Q4 can't possibly surpass Q3 with leaps and bounds or is the margin eroding ....  so is the Biomatrix sales growth and margin slowing down ????

2) Re-financing - 3 options as a)refinance current arrangement b)strategic investment c)Equity financing/other. Then it mentioned the goal is to have balance dilution, need for capital and long term strategic goals. ( i think it will be a right issues )

3) China developement - Still the same .... very talkative .. still negotiating with WeiGao and no new inroads and any other developement.....

4) Profits weighs towards 2H FY2010- Thus, most probably they are expecting BIG to be in the black after September(2nd Qtr) or December(3rd Qtr). So if is by 3rd Q, then physically you can only see BIG in the black in 2010 feb 3Q results annoucement. (seems like still far far away ...)

5) Lastly, alot of time, the management only said things that already happened and when people ask, they only reply cannot said too much becos the competitor is listening to them .... (everthing seems so secretive .... ) Funny lor .. i bought their shares but know nothing about what they are planning to do ... then i can only pray to "GOD" lor ... In my view, at least they must give some milestone chart as what they are planning to achieve down the roads ....  All i know is that they only keep saying Biomatrix sales will improve here and then lor ... China still talking lor ... and the approvals for China is still working on it lor  .... si bei sianz .. keep singing the same theme ....

Thus, after digesting the results, i'm feeling kind of lost and confused ..... as the mgmt did not give very clear indication and direction this time round .... so wat's next for BIG ?????

So, i'm left with no choice but to off-load half of my holding and see how things goes ..... to be on the safe side as there are no strong cataylst that is anticipated to move BIG higher ...  If drop further, then run lor .... heehee.

Sigh ....

Above not an inducement to trade.

 

 

price dipping........not active liao

 

Have to disagree. Market conditions play a part and more importantly investors views on the company share value is paramount and not the other way. Perhaps a like for like comparison with another medical device company of similar size and earnings would be a better yardstick. All BIG needs to do is show their hands-how much and how to and put the uncertainty to rest.

My guess is they will do it soon while the bulls are still running.  

Laulan      ( Date: 01-Jun-2009 16:57) Posted: Yap, it is possible. It depends on how the company views its share value. Normally they use the forward looking pe ratio to arrive at the offer price, like the IPO are normally offered at the upper limits by banks or financial institutions "underwriting" the shares. keepnosecrets      ( Date: 01-Jun-2009 16:52) Posted: Hi Lan, is it possible to offer a share at a premium?  Will the investors put in the money?  Mostly I heard is shares offerred at a discount.  So I am quite interested to know how this can be possible.

 

Good news but not directly related, would need something more substantial to boost the share price. But luckily, mgmt is on the right track to recovery which would help to form a base

 

This is good news. Hope the relations dept  announce this .....

 

FOr information - Devax has got FDA approval to conduct clinical trial in US, using the Biolimus drug and polymer PLA. THis indicates that the drug master file for Biolimus has gotten approval, and this will pave the way for OTHER clinical trials that uses Biolimus to be conducted in US.

 

 

IRVINE, Calif. - (Business Wire) Devax, Inc. today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has conditionally approved an Investigational Device Exemption (“IDE”) for its AXXESS™ Biolimus A9® Eluting Bifurcation Stent System (AXXESS System), allowing the company to initiate a pivotal clinical trial (DIVERGE II) of the device in the United States.

 

 

The DIVERGE II study is a multicenter, blinded, controlled, randomized trial comparing the treatment of bifurcation lesions with the AXXESS stent to standard techniques with conventional stents. The Principal Investigator is Jeffrey Moses, M.D., Professor of Medicine and Director of the Center for Intravascular Therapy at Columbia University Medical Center in New York.

 

 

Bifurcation lesions occur in approximately 20% of patients that are treated for ischemic heart disease with coronary angioplasty and stenting. Recent large scale clinical studies, such as SYNTAX and LEADERS, have shown that lesions located at vessel bifurcations increase the frequency of major adverse cardiac events by as much as 40% compared to lesions in straight vessel segments. Currently, there is no stent with an FDA approved indication for use in bifurcation lesions.

 

 

Devax has implanted over 430 AXXESS stents in two clinical studies conducted outside the United States. The second of these studies, DIVERGE I, enrolled 302 patients at 16 clinical centers in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. The 9 month follow up for these patients was presented last October at the Transcatheter Therapeutics conference in Washington, D.C. The data, published in the March 23, 2009 issue of the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, show high rates of clinical success and low rates of restenosis compared to other studies of bifurcations.

 

 

Discussing the significance of the study, Professor Moses said, “DIVERGE II will be a landmark study because there are many novel aspects to the trial. The AXXESS stent is the first drug eluting stent dedicated solely to bifurcation lesions. We see these types of lesions frequently in daily practice, and they are difficult to treat with conventional stents and techniques. Also, this study is the first randomized study to compare a lesion-specific drug eluting stent to a standard device in a complex vessel anatomy.”

 

 

“This is the first IDE approval of a drug eluting stent specifically designed for use in coronary bifurcations,” said Jeff Thiel, President and CEO. “We have focused our attention on being the first to market in the United States with a dedicated DES, and this is an important step toward that goal.”

 

 

The Devax AXXESS System technology is a proprietary self-expanding Nitinol stent specifically designed for the treatment of coronary and vascular bifurcation lesions. The conical shape of the stent is designed to conform to the bifurcation anatomy and provide full access to both branches for additional interventional procedures.

 

 

 

Yap, it is possible. It depends on how the company views its share value. Normally they use the forward looking pe ratio to arrive at the offer price, like the IPO are normally offered at the upper limits by banks or financial institutions "underwriting" the shares.

keepnosecrets      ( Date: 01-Jun-2009 16:52) Posted: Hi Lan, is it possible to offer a share at a premium?  Will the investors put in the money?  Mostly I heard is shares offerred at a discount.  So I am quite interested to know how this can be possible.

 

Hi Lan, is it possible to offer a share at a premium?  Will the investors put in the money?  Mostly I heard is shares offerred at a discount.  So I am quite interested to know how this can be possible.

 

I agree with investor senior's view on the part of BIG being able to do without any M&A.  The question of fund raising if necessary would be be one of the dreaded thoughts of most investors.  This is because the present numbers of paid up shares already runs into the billions.  This is obviously not a good or welcome scenario.

However I believe that where absolutely necessary, unless new scrips issues are either placed at a good premium, then we as investors will not be worried over it because scrip issued at a good premium would mean profit to the investors.  Nevertheless, I do not think BIG will have difficulties fulfilling their bond obligations at the disadvantage to its long term shareholders.

BIG needs to cheong so that it can do better. Gee up!!!

investor      ( Date: 30-May-2009 21:23) Posted: From what is being said in this forum, it looks like shareholders are more worried about the US$45m bond than the CEO of Biosensors ! If you view the video of the q409 resutls, the body language of the CEO was very confident, even replying with a smile, when asked to comment on the 3 alternatives of raising funds, ie a new  licensing arrangement for their product, strategic investor investing a small stake in Biosensors (ie private share placement), or some other normal financing arrangements (maybe extending the bond due date, etc) Looking at Terumo's contribution and JWMS, together they contribute US$4.6 m to the bottom line, ie US$18.4m per yr, and growing. That is, assuming 1 billion shares of Biosensors (for simplicity sake), they are contributing eps of US1.84 cents per yr or Sing 2.67 cents per yr (using ex rate of 1:1.45), or Biosensors is trading at PE of 20 times just using profits from Terumo and JWMS ! My understanding is that Terumo is also going into China (during the Beijing CIT conference), they mentioned that. China is like the next virgin territory,(who cares about USA ! - Just kidding) and if JWMS can make US$17m net profit annually (from the slides), then with Bisensors and Terumo, in China in the not-too-distant future,, it will probably be a significant growth area for them as well. Logically, we do not even have to look at M&A - this company looks like it can go it alone. As usual, not a call to buy/sell, Investors are advised to do their own homework.

 

BIG is accumulating @ .55 by someone. Not allowing to go up. Watch out carefully. there may be another roller coaster ride again. this can be up / down.

 

Hehe...guess I think this stock is for those who can feel of the company, Do you think it has cash flow problem? Low margin compare to s-chip  profit? Cost escalating? Sales dropping? Read the report for the last 4 to 6 Q and you can find a trend, remember you need a few points to plot a trend. Look at the price trend also and decide yourself. What matters is not individual opinion, is how you feel about the company, of couse how much info you have about instituitional interest on the stock as size matters in this game.

junction      ( Date: 01-Jun-2009 02:07) Posted: wb1931 Don't understand your rationale: 32% margin and you say sell the business. 30% margin you say very profitable. Look at the listed blue chip companies. How many have 32% margins? wb1931      ( Date: 30-May-2009 18:29) Posted: The following is a drag on the Group:   JW ICU with revenue only US 110k and registered net loss US 18k Consider shutting down this business?   Critical care business with flat revenue yoy with gross margin of only 32% (or 3mil) How profitable is this business? What is the Group’s plan to grow or make it more profitable? Would it be better to have it sold instead to allow the Group to concentrate on its Interventional business?     The current cash cow should be JWMS which is giving a net profit at about 30%. What is the Group’s plan to grow this venture business which is very profitable?

 

wb1931 Don't understand your rationale: 32% margin and you say sell the business. 30% margin you say very profitable. Look at the listed blue chip companies. How many have 32% margins?

wb1931      ( Date: 30-May-2009 18:29) Posted: The following is a drag on the Group:   JW ICU with revenue only US 110k and registered net loss US 18k Consider shutting down this business?   Critical care business with flat revenue yoy with gross margin of only 32% (or 3mil) How profitable is this business? What is the Group’s plan to grow or make it more profitable? Would it be better to have it sold instead to allow the Group to concentrate on its Interventional business?     The current cash cow should be JWMS which is giving a net profit at about 30%. What is the Group’s plan to grow this venture business which is very profitable?

 

Hehe...bring a ladder when you all come back in end of Jun, as it may not be at the same height you left it.

 

perhaps, after end Jun, 2Q, d px will within 60-70, as coy result would be improved by then, I guess only.

starlene      ( Date: 31-May-2009 13:44) Posted: will cross 60cts and head towards 70cts to 1 dollar

 

will cross 60cts and head towards 70cts to 1 dollar

 

what is " om zambala zanen zaye soha " ?

louis_leecs      ( Date: 30-May-2009 23:59) Posted: imstrong believe tis baby going final collective stage,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,if not wrong next week will see they going to fly hight,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,they will br a star for those who like to park their invesment at future blue chip,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,tis baby is a good bet,,,,,,,,,,,,,,i predict tis baby going to do a lot action after long consolidate,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,just wait for right time and fly,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,from their management i can see the future of tis baby................and ocbc tp tis baby 74cts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,oh now is very cheap,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,om zambala zanen zaye soha,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,is coming,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,cheers

 

imstrong believe tis baby going final collective stage,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,if not wrong next week will see they going to fly hight,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,they will br a star for those who like to park their invesment at future blue chip,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,tis baby is a good bet,,,,,,,,,,,,,,i predict tis baby going to do a lot action after long consolidate,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,just wait for right time and fly,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,from their management i can see the future of tis baby................and ocbc tp tis baby 74cts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,oh now is very cheap,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,om zambala zanen zaye soha,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,is coming,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,cheers

 

From what is being said in this forum, it looks like shareholders are more worried about the US$45m bond than the CEO of Biosensors !

If you view the video of the q409 resutls, the body language of the CEO was very confident, even replying with a smile, when asked to comment on the 3 alternatives of raising funds, ie a new  licensing arrangement for their product, strategic investor investing a small stake in Biosensors (ie private share placement), or some other normal financing arrangements (maybe extending the bond due date, etc)

Looking at Terumo's contribution and JWMS, together they contribute US$4.6 m to the bottom line, ie US$18.4m per yr, and growing. That is, assuming 1 billion shares of Biosensors (for simplicity sake), they are contributing eps of US1.84 cents per yr or Sing 2.67 cents per yr (using ex rate of 1:1.45), or Biosensors is trading at PE of 20 times just using profits from Terumo and JWMS !

My understanding is that Terumo is also going into China (during the Beijing CIT conference), they mentioned that.

China is like the next virgin territory,(who cares about USA ! - Just kidding) and if JWMS can make US$17m net profit annually (from the slides), then with Bisensors and Terumo, in China in the not-too-distant future,, it will probably be a significant growth area for them as well.

Logically, we do not even have to look at M&A - this company looks like it can go it alone.

As usual, not a call to buy/sell, Investors are advised to do their own homework.

 

 

 

• The following is a drag on the Group:

 

• JW ICU with revenue only US 110k and registered net loss US 18k
• Consider shutting down this business?

 

• Critical care business with flat revenue yoy with gross margin of only 32% (or 3mil)
• How profitable is this business?
• What is the Group’s plan to grow or make it more profitable?
• Would it be better to have it sold instead to allow the Group to concentrate on its Interventional business?

 

 

• The current cash cow should be JWMS which is giving a net profit at about 30%.
• What is the Group’s plan to grow this venture business which is very profitable?