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The days look bright ahead.....
Scooby dooby dooooo!!!
To all SPC supporters,
Dow close at high ,,, looking forward to Monday ,,,,, SPC to break out of 5.10 resistance ,,,
setting my eye at 5.50
!! we check in December 1...
q 2 buy @ 4.84 2morrow?
Ref my earlier post.....the sole production field is Kakap field....(not Jeruk).....
Jeruk is still under appraisal.
Getting all these Indo names mixed up.... Apologies.
My outlook for SPC to 3Q is good. Oil and gas prices are likely to continue its upward trend and touch $70. Any further major disruption may even cause oil price to go beyond last year high.
Global oil supply continues to be tight and oil prices consistently move higher. From about 60 to low 58 than 65 and down to 62.5 and then up again. So you can see the general trend is good.
Vic,
My view of SPC concurs with chinkiasu's.
My estimate of SPC's FY 07 eps is between 60 to 70 cts. This works out to be a P/E (xd) of 6.7X to 7.8X. FY 07 divvy will be between 35 to 40 cts which gives a yield of 7.4% to 8.5%.
Whilst refineries are being built, the capacity increase of new refineries is not yet matching the demand increase. Furthermore, most of the existing refineries are very old (due to the very poor refining margins over the past 20+ years) and some capacity may have to be taken off the market or refurbuishment and upgrading will be need. This will take capacity off the market....temporarily or permanently.
SPC will also see improved earnings from their E&P activities (upstream). Historical figures show that E&P gross profit margins range from 30% to 50%. FY 2006 was on the lower end due to write off of expenses from 'dry' wells. Oyang field is/has started production and the initial output from this is expected to be double the existing (and sole) Jeruk field....i.e. E&P will triple in FY07.
My take is, based on current outlook, SPC is good for another 2-3 years.
I am waiting to accumulate on dips.
As for stock price, whether it is more or less than $5.00 on xd, depends on market sentiments........but I am willing to take on the bet with you too.
this is continuing post from the Fellowship of the Shares:
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victorian |
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my dear victorian,
actually we didnt say 5.00 and certainly not 1st May as we all know that there is a dividend payout on 27th April, so there will be a correction on 30th April. But you said you wouldnt touch SPC because the counter is one of those has beens while I argue that the stock is quite unlike the examples you have quoted.. bottomline, I stay vested while you think this stock has no future... so I say lets not argue as time will tell and we agree to review the counter in May.
Will SPC downtrend to hover to $4.5 and stay stagnant going forward for the next 6mths from May 1st until (a war, supply disruption, SPC needs a cash call : hence cheong price)? Perhaps so, but I think the figure should be $4.7 rather than $4.5 and for me there is always the possibility that they may strike oil in their upstream investments. Do we bet on this difference? i.e I will stay vested while you would not? This means if the stock goes down to $4.5, I will buy some more stock...
Heres the CNBC question of the day. Is it a time to HOLD, BUY or SELL?
My price target was 5.00 BUT today's crossing of 5.00 with day high at 5.10 and ended at 5.00 wasnt too convincing.
I am hoping that the price action will NOT stuck below 5.10. Daily chart is bullish. ADX shows strength in trend every session. CCI is in its early overbought condition.
Will HOLD for now to retest 5.10 for the next one two sessions.
Oil Price is climbing as well.
Congratulation to all SPC supporters, it going up up up to 5.50 .
my target to take profit ......
big congrad to everone who still holding this baby ^^
I might wanna log my profit before SPC pay out it final net div S$0.20 per share, special net div S$0.15 per share on 27 Apr 07