SPC   

SPC

SPC devotees get ready to rock today!!!!! I have changed my religion from gold to a pure SPC follower a month ago. Come and join in this wonderful religion! 

My outlook
- crude price to trend upward
- La Nina possibility :- report indicates that there is a likelihood of this happening within the next 3 months. If La Nina break out, this will send crude up as there is increase possibility of hurrican knocking out refineries just like Katrina. But I could not confirm if there is any chance hurrican will hit SPC oil fields.
- Geopolitical event
Closely watching North Korea and Iran events. 
- Global economy
Economy outlook remains robust but with possibility of major corrections and interest rate hike esp from China. 

HOLD STRONG TO YOUR FAITH AND DO NOT BE SWAYED FROM NEGATIVE FLUCTUATIONS 

 

 

does gross proft = operating profit?

why does operating profit in cover page of FY06 = gross profit?

i thought operating profit = gross profit less expenses?

 

take back my comments. my mistake.

 

are there any errors in FY06 annual report for breakdown in quarterly profits on cover page?

note: quarterly operating profits

 

US market sentiment not too good ,,,,,  make just move side way for 2 morow ,,,,

 

I think tomorrow will be a scooby dooby doo day!

 

just got to know this forum. it has the most replies in here as like in CNA forum. but there are many doomsayers in CNA forum thread. i have been a shareholder since 2005 and glad to receive my second round of dividends again this year.

 

i hav revised my humble target of $5.50 to $6.00 in the wake of higher refining margins, good dividend payouts and slowly being accumulated by Kep Corp. Cheers!

 

Hi jkbk007...I am sure you are happy to be wrong. We are will be making some coffee $$ then. Do keep the dividens for petrol. It's up 10¢ more...lol

 

I am so happy I am wrong! I am going to have a pocket fatter by at least 10%.

I am quite sure analyst expectation will be outperform as 1Q outperform last year by a big margin and 2Q outlook to be better than 1Q. Average oil prices in April is higher than the months in 1Q.

Now what I can spent for the dividend.....hmm maybe a new PC, digital camera, LCD TV and maybe play futures!

 

 

I think we need to be clear that a good profit doesn't necessary make a price surge.  The profit MUST exceed analyst expectation to make the price surge.  So if the profit DOES NOT meet the analyst expectation, we may see a downward movement on the stock price.  Its all about the degree of the actual result meeting the concensus.

At time analyst use year to year comparison or qtr to qtr if its a quarterly result.

 

One thing I don't understand from the report is that it says: "The 90,000 barrels per day Crude Distillation Unit No 1 complex at the Singapore Refinery Company will be shut down for 25 days from May to June as part of the Group's schedule maintenance programme. Despite the reduction of throughpuy by about 9% for the 2nd quarter, this turnaround activity is not expected to negatively impact the Group's mkting and trading activities. The Group will have sufficient inventory during this period." If 90,000 barrels x 25days x US$7.00 of refinery margin, that will equate to about US$15.9mil of lost profit. Talking rubbish! Why always keep shutting down for maintenance? They did it once in 2006, isn't that enuf? Sigh.... Warren Buffet ever said, lost of income if compounded for 30 years of which that lost income can earning a mere 8% a year, the amount will be huge! SO I OBJECT TO THE MAINTENANCE!!!!

 

A sterling result indeed. Revenue drop but Earning up, which is totally opposite what jkbk007 predicted...hehehe! Refinery margin (US$7.00) should be the core earning not retail petrol. I think retail is just a small percentage pt in the earning contribution. Anyway, before the results, all are guessing, even the fund managers were guessing too. Should all these be reflected in the share price tomorrow? Anything can happen in the mkt. I saw K-Reit earning up 24% but the share price kept eroding eversince.

 

SINGAPORE, April 24 (Reuters) - Oil and gas refining and marketing firm Singapore Petroleum Co. Ltd. (SPC) (SPCS.SI: Quote, Profile , Research) reported a 65.1 percent rise in first-quarter net profit on Tuesday due to higher refining margins.

The company, 49-percent owned by the world's top offshore oil drilling rigs builder Keppel Corporation Ltd. (KPLM.SI: Quote, Profile , Research), earned a net profit of S $112.1 million ($74 million) for the January-March period, compared with S$67.9 million in the same quarter of 2006, it said in a statement.

 

I expect revenue to be up but profit should be less than last year due to lower petrol and to a small extend depreciating US$.

However the 2Q is likely to exceed 1Q as we are already seeing petrol price increase and also further price increase.

 

If 1Q2007 disappoints today, price may not go down much as SPC holders still have 35c dividends to look forward to. If 1Q2007 exceeds expectations, i think price should move north. Looks like vested holders are in a win-win situation.

 

Seeing an upward thrust of 30¢ tomorrow will be better than having s*x...hahaha!

 

i am not sure about today's price movement to determine the result tomorrow. But Keppel Corp, the mother company, do gave me some confidence that they had bought 1.75 million off SPC share 1 month back. They wun have bought the share if they know the results is below expectationa and the mkt will press down the price tomorrow. From this point, I am sure the result will be good. If not good, then something must be in the pipeline awaiting to be exploded in this year. Vested.

 

base on today's movement , it should have positive results. much better than Q12006.

 

Will 1Q2007 quarterly sales exceed 1Q2006?  I think yes.

Will 1Q2007 profit exceed 1Q2006? Not sure......