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Thanks Bengster. I can see you have been very logical in your explanation and newbies should learn from the lesson given. It is a very good piece of discipline he has shared here.
bengster68 ( Date: 13-Jul-2009 18:38) Posted:
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Not time to vest in Biosensor now. Now still in correction phrase. Wait for better signal b4 going in.
(My opinion)
I would advise buyers to have some patience. Patience, patience, patience! Patience can make traders / investors good money in stock market. When you see the perfect psychological moment to buy finally arrive, be bold.... execute your buy order, strike like a cobra. Wait for DOW and STI to show trend reversal. Wait for this stock to show trend reversal. Monitor the price action very closely when you feel its about time the reversal is about to happen. Watch the price action around the support level zone, visualise the candlestick formation even before the trading day ends, see the reversal formation, RSI and fast stochastics price ocillators reversal from a very oversold level. When the selling forces eases off and buying forces start to come back, thats the time you should make your first trade if you are not vested. Wait for price action confirmation before you make the trade. Dont jump the gun. After reversal, when price line cut above the short-term MA line convincingly, add on a second trade. If the underlying buying forces is strong enuf to break the 58cts convincingly, add in a third trade. Stock market is too unpredictable to make all your purchases at one go. Stagger your entry. Average winners, never average losers. Each trade has to make paper profits before the next trade can be made. That means you are making a right trade and you are on the right side of the market. Once you make paper profits on your first trade, it proves you are on the right side of the market otherwise you wont have the paper profit. That fact that you are on the right side on the market will make you have more confidence to add on a second trade, risking only the market's money (your paper profits), never risking your precious limited capital. I hope people can benefit from this trading strategy.
BTW i was never involved in any scam BB syndication or some kopitiam con synidicate. Be very careful when taking stock tips the next time someone offers you a tip or market rumour. Sometimes the info may be correct (esp when market is bullish since most stocks move up in bull market) but the tipster will never tell you when to get out. BB rumour monger need retail punters to buy and further push up the price after the BB syndicate has finished their accumulation. This is to facilitate their distribution to public evenutally.
Ha ha, coming AGM on 28 ds mth, but out of 11 resolutions, no one got interesting leh, ie Div payout
despite good rpt in d 2cm thick Annual Rpt 08/09. Venue is not in a ball room leh? SGX bldg??
See got any last min special report during d mtg?
Wow Bengster, you no longer the ah beng or ah seng. You have learned hard. Now I see a technical analyst instead of the FA person in you.!
Hi bengster68,
Thanks for sharing. Good Analysis!
bengster68 ( Date: 12-Jul-2009 23:14) Posted:
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I just heard some rumours (aka, "good news" about this stock but it is contridictary to the rumour i heard 2 months earlier and my own personal judgment on the this stock). So im going to ignore this market tip / rumour and see things strictly base on price action and what the market is telling me.
Potential H&S formation forming over a period of 2 to 3 months (quite a good time frame duration), head peaked at 58.5cts (note: 58cts was previously a strong support level since 2005). Both left and right neckline of 45.5ct. That means if price breakdown below 45.5cts, things could get quite ugly here. Some people like to buy just above support levels but if you do so, please have a tight cut loss point (example if price drop to 44.5cts). In strong down trend, support levels are meant to be broken. This stock has been on down trend for over a month, short-term MA line is sloping down, price line is below MA line (becoming a resistance line now), "death cross" between 20 and 50day MA line occurred on 02/07/09. I think 45.5cts support may not hold for this current wave of downdraft. Looking at next support level of around 40cts region where average price action has been hovering around that region since late feb to mid apr 09, thus volume was quite "thick" around the 40cts region.
Look at the historical high buying volume. It is worth to look for another buying entry point. The support is between 0.455 and 0.46.
Whether J&J is interested in Biosensors - nobody knows, but the fact is that they are are going into bio-degradable polymer in a big way, and the Nevo DES will be their flagship going forward.
This augurs well for Biosensors, as they have a long leadtime ahead of the Nevo DES, and is in fact free advertising for Biosensors.
Reagrding the NEVO results, under a contolled randomised trial, where only simple, discrete lesions were treated, their MACE rate was 4.1%, TLR - 1.6%, stent thrombosis - 0%
Compare this with the Nobori Registry of 1000 patients, in a real world setting (that is all patients are treated, with no exclusion criteria).
After 6 mths, 'on-label' patients of 320 (that is simpler lesions, but still real wrold patients), the MACE rate was 2.7%, TLR - 0.33%, Stent Thrombosis-0.94%.
For 'off label' patients, out of 680 patients, their condition includes bifurcation, occlusion, long lesions, overlapping stents, etc, the MACE rate was 4.4%, TLR - 1.62% and stent thrombosis - 0.8%..
The Nobori registry clearly looks better than the Nevo results, even though it is 'real world'.
Also, the Biosensors 'Leaders Trial' which is 'all comers', meaning almost all kinds of patients were admitted, with its hugh number of patients - approx 1600, mean that the Nevo DES has some way to go to catch up with it.
It looks like a win-win situation for Biosensors, when more publicity is generated by the Nevo DES, and may even compel the other major players like Medtronics, Boston Scientific and Abbot to look into the bio-degradable polymer route as well. (actually, Boston Scientific is already looking at bio degradable polymer).
Above is only a personal opinion. Not a call to buy/sell.
You dont seem so laulan afterall. After eating a huge humble pie, i have brushed up on my TA skills and how the stock market/ BB syndicates works. FA without TA is of not much help in stock market. It is the price action, buying and selling that makes the dough. I realise we have to first establish:
1. The line of least resistance of the market trend (DOW, HSI, STI), business sector trend and individual stock's trend. Unwise to trade against trend.
2. Compare a stock's price movement with the industrial group or fellow sister stock.
3. Know some TAs that suits your needs. Eg: Candlestick charting, chart formation, short & longer term M.A lines, support / resistance levels, Stochastics, RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, etc.
4. Know the history of behaviour of the particular stock. Know how to analyses news impartially without analyst's bias influence
5. Have your own trading strategy (adding on trades and predetermined cut-loss point), discipline and money management rules.
6. Have confidence in your own opinions, forget about stock tips/ rumours, study the charts and price action, be unemotional and forget about hope and faith. Be patient when entering a trade, be patient for the trade to play out its full course but be decisive in cutting when things don't turn out well. The market is always right.
I wont be giving tips/rumours but just want to share here how stock market really works. It is the human crowd psychology of greed/fear/ignorance that determines the market price of a stock.
Laulan ( Date: 10-Jul-2009 15:20) Posted:
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Welcome back, Bengster! Your long absence has caused some concerns whether you are still vested or have sold everything when the price was "right"! Hehehe.
Now you're back, I hope you can continue to contribute your knowledge on this counter.
Cheers.
I posted more than a month ago that JNJ most likely will not buyout BIG due to the initial success of NEVO trials. The JNJ trial info was released in late May. Since late May, this stock has been on downtrend. I try to provide an objective post back then but people start accusing me of shorting this stock. In summary, the TA of this stock looks bearish to me now.
starlene ( Date: 05-Jul-2009 15:32) Posted:
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They claimed that dead cats can bounce, phoenix rises from the ashes and dead horse is good for satay. Hehe.
dcang84 ( Date: 06-Jul-2009 12:42) Posted:
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agree.based on return on investment thus far, this is a very poor performer.i dun know about being a dark horse, but at stage i thot it was a dead one!
keepnosecrets ( Date: 06-Jul-2009 11:23) Posted:
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As AK would put it-JANGAN TENSION!
louis_leecs ( Date: 06-Jul-2009 10:44) Posted:
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Going by their guidance and execution thus far, I take it that mgmt is ahead of the curve and know the implication of an impending cash call. I believe there are some plans in the works. Be patient brudder.
louis_leecs ( Date: 06-Jul-2009 10:44) Posted:
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If resistance of 50 cents cannot be broken, then I think no chance for Biosensor to go to the higher levels. I consider BIG a bad investment, but who knows.. sometimes there might be a dark horse out there.
keepnosecrets ( Date: 06-Jul-2009 11:07) Posted:
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Many US Biotech companies can make use of BIG for bigger plans. Also much idle money laying ard in these companies. Can buy BIG with small money, even big money no sweat! Cheers.
time running out for capital injection opportunity ,bec bond going to expire in nov 2009,,,,.....now july already,,,,,,,,j&j just take over one baby at ny,,,,,,,,,,,,,,i dont think they got bullet to buy tis baby,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,so now biosensor have to find a new resourse to let it grown bigger,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but now like no action,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
you're back? dun scare investors ok?
louis_leecs ( Date: 06-Jul-2009 09:50) Posted:
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