
if today close above 1.11...tomorrow sure gap up... if below 1.11.... still downtrend
STX OSV eyes Petrobras orders with new yard
Tuesday, 03 May 2011 12:24
Singapore-listed offshore vessel builder STX OSV (STXO.SI) expects to triple its production capacity in Brazil to as many as 10 vessels per year by 2013, when its second yard is slated to be fully operational.
Analysts said the additional yard could give the firm more firepower to capture orders for high-end support vessels worth up to US$100 million ($122.5 million0 each from Brazilian state oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA).
Analysts said the additional yard could give the firm more firepower to capture orders for high-end support vessels worth up to US$100 million ($122.5 million0 each from Brazilian state oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA).
STX OSV currently has one yard in Brazil that annually manufactures 2-3 vessels. Construction of the second yard is scheduled to begin in the second quarter this year and the investment cost is around US$100 million.
 
“The capacity of the second yard is around 7 vessels a year when it’s fully up and running. Our target is to fill our capacity in the coming years and Petrobras is an important end user of the vessels,” STV OSV CEO Roy Reite told Reuters.
 
The first project at the new yard will be to build 8 liquefied petroleum gas carriers worth a total of around NOK3 billion ($696.2 million) for Transpetro, an oil and gas transportation unit of Petrobras.
 
STX OSV expects to start construction of the first carrier in the second half of 2012 and deliveries are likely to be staggered from 2014 to 2016.
 
“Looking at their market share in Brazil, STX OSV stands a good chance of winning Petrobras orders,” said Jason Saw, an analyst at DMG & Partners Research.
 
“3-4 vessels per annum from Petrobras related tenders is possible over the long term,” he added. Saw has a buy rating and a target price of $1.75 on the stock.
STRONG ORDERS
Reite said strong oil prices have boosted global oil field development after a lean period following the financial crisis, and the demand for supporting vessels.
 
STX OSV has 46 vessels in its order book by the end of the first quarter this year but he declined to disclose the value. In the whole of 2010, the firm clinched contracts for 27 vessels worth a total of NOK12.6 billion.
 
Credit Suisse said in a report that its estimate of STX OSV’s order wins in the year to date, excluding the Transpetro contract, is around NOK2.5 billion. This represents about 17% of its 2011 order forecast of NOK15 billion.
 
The brokerage added that the order momentum for STX OSV is expected to remain strong. It has an outperform rating and a target price of $1.55 on the stock.
 
At 10:11 a.m., STX OSV shares were down 2.7% at $1.09 on a volume of 1.7 million shares, the lowest since late March.
 
The stock has been soft after reports last month that South Korea’s STX Group was thinking of selling a 20% stake worth around 260 billion Korean won ($295.7 million) in the Singapore-listed builder.  
STX OSV issued a statement on April 26 that “STX Europe has not made any firm plans in relation to its stake in STX OSV”. 
 
STX Europe, which is part of STX Group, holds 69% of STX OSV. The Singapore-listed firm has its operational headquarters, a design center and five yards located in Norway. It also has other yards in Brazil, Romania and Vietnam.
 
Thanks for post...I am buying from 1.05 to 1.10.......today most market up and I think sti will be up tomorrow and so is stx osv....but if it drop to the level, I will buy big on stx osv..the trend for this stock is it drop big and it rise big too....
$1 should be the strong support.....
chart pattern : double top formed 136...135
if stxosv break the one dollar trough, trend will turn from neutral to downtrend
swing trade : LL formed on apr19 at 117, followed by LH on apr21 at 123
the all important 117 trough was breakdown on apr28
to buy near horizontal 105 resistance is against trend (counter) trade
one need to be agile & fast to throw when  price dip quickly
watch next peak for clue LH for trend continuation, HH for...  
anticipating a possible reversal at the one dollar trough match point
monitor week chart for buy signal such as hammer-like candle & & indicators
jamesng ( Date: 02-May-2011 03:53) Posted:
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Hi Broadfeet, are you interested in the stock?
What price are you buying since you do so much research on this stock and likely to like to get this stock at low price?
I look at the chart, it looks ok to me....most stock are like that..just that this stock is more volatile....
broadfeet ( Date: 01-May-2011 13:36) Posted:
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dead cross is upon us
if stxosv close lower after x-div there is no escaping the crossover
a possible retracement might occur at horizontal line resistance 105
reversal more likely to take place nearer the dollar psychological level i think  
a word of caution for the faint of heart : do not take peek at weekly chart
broadfeet ( Date: 01-May-2011 12:43) Posted:
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wat's ur target price to buy? 1.05? :P
jamesng ( Date: 01-May-2011 13:04) Posted:
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Funds had been selling despite the fundamnetal and I believe this is due to the fact that this stock is volatile....I believe this stock might not fall on xd.....but I hope it falls as hard as possible as I want to ride on high oil price and the award of contracts in 2011 and beyond.....I believe it will surpass the order book in 2007/2008......and stx osv is too undervalued compared to KepCorp and SembMarine...
By the way, it has been clarity that the parent is  not selling the stake...but wonder why few here did not state so,,,,,interesting to see so many posts here ............
Thanks for info...had prepare my money to buy for the down trend if it ever come........getting exciting reading the presentation the order will pick up second half of 2011.........
Fibonacci levels executed in chronicle orders
down 117, up 121, down 117 again, break 113 close friday at 112
next 105 & 99
1 dollar psychological level may pass due to x-div coming tuesday
just a obsevation
Citigold ( Date: 30-Apr-2011 14:43) Posted:
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then we can wait for 1.05 or 1.00
personally i dont think 1.1 can be broken so easily.. (doesnt mean tat it cant be broken)
hpong5 ( Date: 01-May-2011 11:31) Posted:
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That cannot be avoided due to the xd.
rotijai ( Date: 01-May-2011 11:27) Posted:
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if it goes lower than 1.09.. tat means the 1.1 support tat all the ppl have been talking about. is gone
hpong5 ( Date: 01-May-2011 11:18) Posted:
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Normally should open 1.09 or lower next tuesday due to xd. If market sentiment is bad, might go even lower to 1.07.
rotijai ( Date: 01-May-2011 10:47) Posted:
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i believe it should be about 1.05-1.1 depending on the market sentiment. if the market is overly bullish, > 1.1 is possible.
i try not to be influenced by such news.. based on the number readings that i have.. it is still dropping.
also, i think there might be some upwards when they announce their 1st quarter earnings.. BUT so coincident tat it's on 9th may which is the monday after GE.. so i will stay away from it until my numbers show tat it's time to buy..
so many ppl waiting for 1.10 and below.. smth tat i am quite worry about...
cause i rmb the last time when it went up  from 1.00, almost everyone gave up on this stock.. (i wanna buy when everyone gives up this :P)
teeth53 ( Date: 30-Apr-2011 13:09) Posted:
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Interesting to see so  much interest in this stock......hope it fall lower and I can collect....long term wise, this is at least better than Cosco and YZJ, if not KepCorp and SembMarine....
Will be a good opportunity to cover lower if really the case and go long.
teeth53 ( Date: 30-Apr-2011 16:08) Posted:
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After it goes Ex-dvd, px can fall abit....that can also be a bit more attractive to buyer, than again will buyer be buying....or wait somemore, for it to fall abit more....Just my imaginative opinion....hehehe.
hpong5 ( Date: 30-Apr-2011 14:00) Posted:
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Can collect more now or wait for it to drop a bit lower.Q1 result out on 9 of May 2011.
That is possible. Tues is ex date. Shorted this week.
teeth53 ( Date: 30-Apr-2011 13:09) Posted:
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