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arrr....4.8
4.78 now...I'm going in...
SPC trading at $4.80 now, dropped 25¢. My sentiment is that it has drop only 20¢ after XD and bcos the mkt is down today, it dropped another 5¢. Should pick up pace and go back to $4.88-$4.92 in no time.
Base on Yesterday closing, my fair value is between 4.78 to 4.8 which can just make a litter profit, but for those trade at 5.10 they need to wait till at least 4.82....if we are cash rich...holding is the rite solution
Hi mirage..... There is no fair value in the stock mkt. They are all perceive value. No one in this world can measure the value of a company. Just like a piece of art, some may go into auction for $$Mil but some may just be selling less then $100 in Chinatown. Now lots of ppl may measure the value of the company by seeing the Mkt Cap of the company. This value was taken from the number of shares the company issues multiply by the share price it is currently trading. The bigger the Mkt Cap, the perceive size of the company. However, is this the real value of the company...I don't think so. Now if we see anotther barometer, the NAV, is the value of the company, by calculating the asset of the company like the property they own, the machinery, etc. But this figure does not include the intrinsic value like the brand or the future earning ability....so there is no tool that can measure fair value of the company, all driven by hopes, greed and fear.
Any one knows what's the fair value of SPC after XD? Thank you.
Any one knows what's the fair value of SPC after XD? Thank you.
open 4.84 (-0.210)
now 4.76 (-0.290)
Gasoline price up to USD$2.29
Crude price down to $65.06 on profit taking.
Gasoline inventory drop 2.8million barrels against expected 200,000 barrels increas.
Refining capacity down 2.8%.
All this continue to point to another great 2Q.
Exxon Mobil profit rises 10% outpacing estimate. One of the key reason is due to high refining margin.
Gasoline is set to rise further as US moves towards driving season. Gasoline inventories in US fell 2.8 million barrels against analyst forecast of 200,000 barrels increase. Refining capacity also fell 2.8% despite attempt to increase refining capacity.
Thus I would not be surprise that 2Q profit exceeds 1Q despite the 9% drop in throughput.
Business News has set a target price of $5.27 for SPC. I think that is too low.
shplayer, thanks for answering my questions.
all, moment of truth in exactly 9 hrs. Will it or will it not drop more than 35c.
I am also vested in this counter. First purchase was at 5.40, last purchase was @4.16. I intend to hold this counter for long term capital gain while collecting good dividen along the way. I agree that this counter has long term potential as oil price is likely to stay at high level for a long long time, or will never come down again unless there is a world wide recession.
Hi all, been following this forum for quite some time now but this is my maiden post. Been tracking this thread as I'm vested in this counter. My entry prices were between 4.80 and 5.05, with my latest 2 lots bought on the day after SPC disclosed their Q107 results. I've done an analysis on the company:
Q1 profits S$112.1m Less: one off items including gain on disposal of joint venture (5.8m), writeback of deferred tax liability (10.5m), writeback of deferred tax for joint venture (1m estimated), recurring profit for the quarter is $94.8m. For the 2nd quarter, the throughput will be reduced by 9% but not expected to have any impact as it has sufficient inventory. However I have factored in some reduction in profits which will be offset by higher crude prices due to current environment. There shld also be a gain in the disposal of the joint venture company where 30.5m will be received. Thus I won't rule out profits hitting the $100m mark again. All up, assuming oil prices remain around the US$60 to 65 region, profits for the year is targeted towards $400m with potential upside from the oil production from the Oyong field. With $400m profits and number of shares of 514million, forward EPS is 77.8cents. With the current xd price of $4.7, the counter is trading at PE of 6.04. Giving it a PE of 8 which is considered low compared to its peers due to the small size, the fair value is estimated at $6.224
To me, this stock is grossly undervalued. The main reason I think is the lack of analyst converage on this counter so no fair value can be targetted. I'm looking to hold this stock for the long term unless there is a drop in oil prices and/or the results for subsequent periods proved my above analysis incorrect. Comments and views are most welcome from all forumers
Exploration and production contributed $49.2 million in revenue and $14.6 million in operating profit in 2006.
r u sure u wanna look so much into E&P's increased production with the fractional profits it generates? max give u a 30mil profit for the full year. or 12mil per quarter for 3Q and 4Q.
Base on the closing, the price controlled @5.05, think tomorrow expected to open on 4.70 and slowly buy back, it all the big boy game...
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Information is updated as of Thu, April 26, 2007 at 05:10:30 PM
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| DAY HIGH : 5.100 | NET CHANGE : 0.000 | TOTAL VALUE : 22,401,650 |
| DAY LOW : 5.050 | LAST DONE : 5.050 | VOLUME : 4,403,000 |
OK, thanks for the advise tiandi. Shplayer, u are indeed a very careful person. I have lots to learn here.
closing bell soon, SPC really lelong for the retail investors. ~wink~
I agree 3Q is the critical period. First Oyang and maintenance work gone will bring production higher.
Secondly it will be driving season and also the hurrican season.
But will have to watch out for the US slowdown.
Also asked my broker if I should sell today to lock in profit, he recommended hold.
EastonBay,
For divvy, you only need to remember the xd. The 'record date' has something to do with the T+3......xd is 3 days before 'record date'. So, if you buy after xd, you would not have received/ or the shares will not have been delivered by the 'record date.
As for AR, not sure about cut off...but I would assume that they will send to all shareholders on the registry when the AR is ready to be despached.
idesa168,
I prefer to make my estimates on the conservative side. Also, bear in mind, 1Q07 refining margins of $7.00 per bbl is exceptionally good for the quarter. It may be too optimistic to assume the ensuing quarters are so bullish. However, from 3Q onwards, we should see the contributions from the Oyang field which will undoubtedly booast the bottomline.
Idesa168, ExxonMobil currently traded around PE 12X, Chevron around PE 10x.
However, care should be taked NOT TO compare them with SPC.
ExxonMobil is an integrated Oild and Gas company, it has oil and natural gas exploration and production, refining and marketing, chemicals and other operations such as power generation, coal and minerals.
idesa168 Member |
Posted: 26-Apr-2007 13:37 |
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Current trading PE is 9X, sorry about the errors I posted just now. I am just curious why SPC, a blue chip, is still trading at such a low PE even they produce a sterling results year after year. Is it a laggard? If you see some of the laggards like SPH, it is still trading at 16X PE. Is it that oil industries company usually trade at this PE? Anyone know what are the PE for Shell and ExonMobil? |