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bladez87 ( Date: 26-Nov-2010 22:51) Posted:
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The uncertainly in price direction will cause the price to fall back alittle before advancing. MACD is still showing bearish sign
see my analysis on GoldenAgr
AK_Francis ( Date: 25-Nov-2010 22:35) Posted:
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Ha ha, good thinking, hope your blessing loh. Cheers.
melgo5 ( Date: 25-Nov-2010 16:05) Posted:
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Technical View from The Edge
Prices are now suggesting an all-round weaker phase ahead. For the main uptrend to remain intact, prices should not fall below 69 to 70 cents during the short term corrective phase. As quarterly momentum and the long-term ROC indicators are intact, the uptrend should stay intact. Resistance has been established at 77 cents.
Make love more, don't make more enemies
bsiong ( Date: 25-Nov-2010 15:59) Posted:
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Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (GGR SP; S$0.74) |
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It was reported in the newswire that the export of palm oil from Indonesia , the world’s largest producer, rose to 1.45m metric tons in Oct 10 from 1.28m tons in Sep 10 on strong demand from India and China ; the source quoting the country’s Palm Oil Association. This news came on the back of climbing palm oil futures a day before, which benefited from easing concerns about an escalation in clashes between South and North Korea . |
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We believe that the positive news flow will benefit palm oil companies, and in this space, we like Golden Agri. The stock rose 4.2% this morning on a volume of 64m shares traded, lifting it to the top of the volumes chart. Despite the uptick, we see further room for its share price to appreciate! Below are some reasons why we are bullish are the stock. |
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Recent price control measures announced by China may be a POSITIVE for CPO prices in the med term as (i) the price controls and subsidy scheme will keep food products affordable for Chinese consumers, sustaining strong demand growth for meat and edible oils in China; (ii) any delay in the purchase of grains and edible oils products for the festive period due to these measures may coincide with concerns over a potential shortfall in supplies due to poor weather, resulting in an even stronger rally in CPO prices at a later stage. Potential beneficiaries of the measures in the med term are the pure upstream players. |
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Positives from 3Q10 analysts’ briefing: 1) the lower effective tax rate in 3Q10 is sustainable into 4Q10; 2) the group expects production to improve in 4Q10; 3) its cooking-oil business in Indonesia is doing well; and 4) GGR is making progress in becoming an RSPO member. |
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Our top pick in the region remains Golden Agri for its attractive valuations and good share liquidity. We currently have a Trading Buy recommendation with TP of S$0.88(20% upside). Re-rating catalysts are higher CPO prices and potential M&As, in our view. Result of technical charts analysis is consistent with our positive fundament call. |
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//CIMB Squawk Box | |||||
Leinadgnow ( Date: 15-Nov-2010 20:38) Posted:
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Valuation methodologies
We value the company at 15x FY11F P/E. We believe this mid-cycle
valuation of +0.7x Standard Deviation above the stock’s mean is reasonable in the context of our
bullish CPO view. Our Price Target is S$0.85.
Risks to price target
Risks include higher-than-expected oilseed production and lower-thanexpected
crude oil prices, which would impact CPO prices (and therefore earnings)
negatively.
Source: Nomura
Make love more, don't make more enemies
Tropical ( Date: 17-Nov-2010 14:51) Posted:
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Leinadgnow ( Date: 17-Nov-2010 02:07) Posted:
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Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
Singapore
15 Nov 2010
Golden Agri-Resources Limited – Results (Jasmine Lee)
Recommendation: Hold
Previous close: S$0.73
Fair value: S$0.72
· 9M10 and 3Q10 revenue increased by 40% y-y and 43% y-y to US$2.31b and US$965m respectively. 9M10 and 3Q10 gross profit increased by 62% y-y and 44% y-y to US$567m and US$225m respectively
· Gross margin improved to 24.5% in 9M10 from 21.2% in 9M09 due to higher CPO prices
· Productions were lower, with FFB production dropping 7% y-y to 5.19m tonnes in 9M10
· Revising our estimated average CPO prices for GGR to US$825/tonne in FY10 and US$800/tonne in FY11 and using a cost of equity of 10.30%, we derived a target price of S$0.72 using the DCF method. Hence we are maintaining our Hold recommendation on the stock
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GoldenAgr hit support @ $0.72. Will it rebounce and continue to rise?
read my report on GoldenAgr at lollymotion
Golden Agri Resources : S$0.76
BUY (TP: S$0.87)
A strong 3Q
Golden Agri Resources (GAR) had a good quarter, with earnings charging
higher on the back of better production performance compounded by a steep
rise in CPO price. We believe GAR ranks among the best sector exposure to
bet on stronger palm oil price. Our TP has been raised to SGD0.87 to factor
in a higher CPO price assumption. With a 14.7% upside from current levels,
our Trading Buy call is maintained. We continue to like the stock but after
a substantial share price run-up, we prefer First Resources (BUY, TP
SGD1.88), which we believe has a more attractive valuation, and hence
offers more upside.
A very good quarter. GAR’s September core net profit came in at USD96m, up
65.1% q-o-q on the back of rising CPO price and a seasonal increase in
production. This brought the 9M number to USD235.6m. On an annualized
basis, it still fell short of our forecast and consensus but we believe 4Q
would be even stronger than 3Q as production rises further as does CPO
price. We believe its full year earnings should come very close to our
forecast as well as consensus. We note that consensus estimate of USD373.4m
is now close to our forecast after being revised downwards from USD385.7m a
quarter ago.
Production still lagging. During the 9M period, GAR’s nucleus FFB
production fell by 7% to 5.2m tonnes. FFB yield YTD at 14.3 tonnes per ha
was also behind last year’s 16.7 tonnes per ha, partly due to a substantial
increase in young mature area (increased from 43,891 ha to 69,801 ha).
Management also attributed the yield decline to the fully mature areas,
particularly Southern Kalimantan, due to adverse weather. Nevertheless, as
the number of rain days has declined from the start of the La Nina period,
4Q production should recover further. Very likely due to the rainy season,
GAR’s oil extraction rate (OER) also fell to just 21.9% in 3Q, bringing the
YTD average to 22.5%.
Commendable price achieved. GAR’s realized CPO price of USD787 per tonne in
3Q appears low against the MPOB average of USD838 in 3Q but this was due to
its rolling forward sale. The gap between 9M average realized price was
narrower at USD767 against MPOB’s price of USD794
Earnings revision. We have tweaked our FY10 forecast to USD370.6m from
USD372.7m previously primarily to factor in the lower OER achieved. On the
other hand, we have raised our FY11 forecast to USD435.3m from USD397.6m
previously to factor in a higher CPO price assumption of USD840 (slightly
lower than our generic assumption of USD870 due to GAR’s 2-month forward
sale policy). Note that our forecast continues to be more conservative
against consensus at 8.2% lower. In line with the raised earnings forecast,
our TP is thus raised from SGD0.81 to SGD0.87, based on 18x CY11 earnings
Source: DMG
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