SPC   

SPC

godpa,

the earliest signs of a stopping of downtrend are there, but signals still a bit too feeble to be trusted. Hence likely rangebound for now, i'd put a wide range estimate at btwn 4.70 to 5. Likelier a closer range of 4.74 - 4.86 for this period of time.

must convincingly break 5, or at least, 4.92 for a chance of continued uptrend.

and geez, da gege etc,  you guys are morbid!  

 

sounds like a good chance to make use of my dividends if SPC goes south.

 

TA outlook isn't too good.

 

I was tempted to sell off my SPC shares today but held against doing this today.

SPC still looks good to me as long as oil held above $61. I am glad that the oil price did not spiral further up and see this as a positive correction for oil. I estimated crude average was at $63-64 for April. This is still above the 1Q average of about $60. 

US economy has been my main cause of worry but I am glad outlook is now positive. Oil demand should remain strong and $60 oil price for the economy looks sustainable.

There will be a weather report update on 9th.

 

 

 

Crude oil prices have been dropping so the price for this counter has been dropping in line as well.

shplayer, only done some research on this counter, plus share a bit of my comments and views on this counter in this forum. Cant compare to you, you have follow this counter for so long. I got a big vested interest in this counter that's why the research. Anyway, I have scaled down on my investment in this counter. Sold some lots on 30th and 1st.

I'm also trying to sell off some of my holdings to increase my cash. Market seems a bit overheating at the moment.

 

Price is dropping against general trend of going up? What is wrong with SPC? Anyone care to explain?

 

Two sesssions find 4.80 for support.  ADX uptrend hit the 'twang', now starting to weaken.  CCI near to oversold. Possibly ranging sessions between 4.75 - 5.00 otherwise clueless.

 

Any plan to use SPC oil for burning?   

 

meilian,

Reference your post....I must say, you've done your homework on SPC. Its refreshing to have another FA practioner to share  views in SJ.

Basically I agree with your views but would like to add a few comments.

1. Since tracking SPC in 2004, I always had problems in forecasting Quarterly refining margins (RM). May I know how you derived USD6.00 in the near term?
2. SPC should be good for 2007....new refineries expected to come on stream thereafter. But, bear in mind, new refineries are built at 'today's' cost. SRC on SPC's books are carried at historical cost. So, when push come to shove, I think SPC can still compete.
3. E&P development is good for SPC but I don't think it will provide the feedstock to SRC anytime soon. SRC's capacity is 285K bpd....SPC's 50% is 143Kbpd. When Oyang comes onstream in June, SPC E&P output will be about 8K bpd.....so...still long way to go.
4. Yes, regional growth is good for SPC...but historically, geopolitical tensions are alsogood for SPC.

As for the market, think I posted somewhere in SJ that I have liquidated most of my non core holdings....take profit and sit on cash whilst waiting for the opportune time to reinvest.

 

Hi shplayer Start accumulating the Star Cruises share now. Hope by then you are a substantial shareholder and maybe you get some shareholder discounts for your family...lol. As for me, I am accumulating the SPC now, in hope to cremate free...lol

 

idesa168,

I think I can afford the fare for my immediate surviving family to send me off on my last journey....got small family lah.......afterall...I travel free...right?  

 

Yup, I have told my parents to just dispose of my ashes in my backyard as fertilizers for the plants.... save the boat money as well.... :)

 

lol...on board a star cruise is not free either. If I am not wrong, per head will cost about $300-$400. Either way, it will cost your family thousands also.

 

geojam,

As I said before, I don't need to keep $$$ for coffin. As a Sporean, we are all going to be cremated.....so why spend lots of $$$ for something to lie in for 2-3 day then get burnt to ashes. I have also told my family to disperse my ashes in the sea.....(from a StarCruis ship of course)...that way, no need to spend $$$ for an urn or a niche.

You see, we Sporeans are not so privileged to be buried in a coffin. So, with this simple departure planned, I free myself from the stresses of the market to dish out free advice freely....

 

idesa168 and jkbk007

U both are rite.I am just an old and unemployed man.depend heavily on SPC to buy a good coffin.Thanks for reminding me.

Unlike shplayer,who has make his millions,and thus in a capacity to give friendly advise on SC.

 

lol...the "some" referring to Geojam and Chinkiasu, who can buy a bigger & better one now! I believe it's meant to be a joke, I guess.

 

lol...Coffin $$$ is a direct translation from a Chinese word. He is saying that some of us here is using their life long savings to invest.

There are 2 key oil business for SPC, i.e. downstream and upstream. Downstream deals with refining to selling of petroleum products. Upstream deals with oil exploration and productions. SPC started as a oil refinery business. Now their business encompasses upstream and downstream.

 

 

Meilian ,

Thanks for sharing your knowledge for the RM . I thought crude oil price are co-related before seeing your post. Because I went through the shareholder annual report they send , one of the risk factor  they mention was the price of oil ..

 

 

idesa168

I have not the chance to converse with u b4.

Cannot undersatand what u mean by 'some put coffin $$ to buy oil'.Who are the some?

 

shplayer,

RM is not exactly co-related to the crude prices as the RM will depend on the demand on the products from the refining of the crude oil. With the high demand for refined petroleum products and oil from the Asian region (especially China), RM shld be able to be maintained at around US$6 compared to the average of US$4.5 for 2006. For 3Q06 oil reached a peak in July and dropped quite drastically for the next 2 months, thus affecting 3Q results. It has to make provision on the inventories as prices has come down so much compared to July and those prices are no longer achievable.

SPC increasing participation in E&P will ensure they have sources of crude for their refining products and less affected by crude prices on the refining margins. I feel that as long as prices of crude is driven by demand for products rather than by geopolitical reason, SPC results will definitely be good for the coming months. However, if growth slows and geopolitical issues drove up crude prices, it will be a double whammy for SPC but i dun think this will happen for the next year or so.

Comments from all forumers welcome. shplayer, on a separate note altogether, what is your current view on the stock market? Are u heavily invested or reserving your bullets for use during a correction, if any?