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I am not happy........2 days ago when I saw oil down I sold at day high 4.76 and bought more back at 4.70.
Today sold 50% of my lot because I was thinking that it will go down.......
what a bad move ...tradining limit hit...........very piss.
BBs dun come so fast leh.....
thanks for the email.
environment looks good now, we can easily exceed FY06 earnings, and if things remain bright throughout, matching FY05 would be no problem. at current crude oil prices we probably dont run too high a risk of inventories writedown in the event like FY06 plunge in oil prices.
looking forward towards 2Q results. (which will include the completed share sale in a JV - $40M)
onefore02, check your email.
I do not know whether refinery margin can be negative but my opinion is that oil low and high petroleum price mean high refining margin. I saw a blog of someone mentioning this as well on his outlook in 2006.
jkbk007, a fellow shareholder has educated me that due to SRC's nature, refinery margins will always be positive, not so in some refineries in the region that will experience negative margins in bad times. any knowledge to share on that part?
btw how long have u been keeping track? can u send the spreadsheet to me through email?
onefour02, no problem I can send you the data. I hope to hear some comments from you after you have look at them. I will reach you via email since I do not use messenger.
Here is the latest data update as of 8th May. The chart shows monthly average price. Daily data shows that petroleum product prices are reducing. However price reduction is very small and May's one week average price is higher than April.
| Quarterly | Crude Oil | Regular Gasoline | Gasoline | Kerosene Type Jet Fuel | Residual Fuel Oil |
| Jan-07 | 54.51 | 147.21 | 157.59 | 165.99 | 100.3 |
| Feb-07 | 59.28 | 160.73 | 168.15 | 170.85 | 109.21 |
| Mar-07 | 60.44 | 182.83 | 174.92 | 178.79 | 114.03 |
| Apr-07 | 63.98 | 198.9 | 190.32 | 192.51 | 127.59 |
| May-07 | 62.845 | 206.614 | 191.134 | 194.63 | 129.762 |
Hi Chinkiasu,
It is great that you have a chance to experience so many things. It is just awesome!
Summary: Pacific Basin remains primed for La Niņa
Current conditions in the equatorial Pacific remain neutral. However the chance of a La Niņa developing during 2007, and in particular over the coming 2 to 3 months, continues to be significantly elevated above the long-term likelihood of around 20%.
Although neutral, current conditions continue to display the precursors required for the development of a La Niņa event. These include cooler than normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean subsurface - a situation that has persisted since mid-January - which have lead to cooler than average surface waters in the far eastern Pacific. Over the past two weeks, these surface waters have undergone further slow and steady cooling, though they remain largely confined to the eastern edge of the basin: a La Niņa event occurs when this cooling is more extensive along the equator. Furthermore, Trade Winds remain enhanced near the dateline, and convection (high cloud) has continued to be reduced in the east and slightly enhanced in the west. The SOI, which dropped below −10 during April, has returned to near-zero. Such variations are not uncommon during the Austral autumn, and are not necessarily an indicator of the longer term climatic situation. The equatorial SOI, which is calculated using observations on the equator, has remained positive since February.
These conditions, combined with the fact that all major international coupled models show further cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the coming months, suggest that there is an elevated chance of a La Niņa event occurring during 2007. Conversely, they suggest that the El Niņo risk is very low. Historically, La Niņa events bring wetter than normal conditions across much of the eastern half of Australia from autumn onwards.
If La Nina appears in June, one report I hear is that it will mean stronger hurrican in the Atlantic.
onefour02......looks like you are ahead of me in releasing the refining margin information. I actually did a data compilation of the crude oil price and Singapore petroleum product pricing. April prices clearly points to higher refining margin than March.
I will be able to see the latest price update for May tomorrow.
The refining profit to process Dubai crude into gasoline has surged 40 per cent from a month ago, according to Bloomberg data. The so-called Singapore complex refining margin, the benchmark for Asia, has averaged US$10.90 a barrel so far this quarter compared with US$7.80 in the first quarter, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.
Hi chinkiasu,
I'll be going for the cruise in a couple of weeks time! Yeah!!
Hi ideasa168,
Based on the research I have done, SPC has a very good chance of doing extremely well this year. That is as long as we do not see a major economic downturn.
Refining margin for 2Q is set to be higher than 1Q. I saw a surge in Singapore petroleum product price in April07 and if this continues, 2Q refining margin will probably be $8 or higher. Demand for petroleum product in AP remains strong.
SPC is following oil price fluctuations and as a result I hedge myself against the expected drop and sold 33% holdings at $4.78. I do not think oil price will fall below $60. The current price drop is due to lower global refining capacity and thus resulting in higher crude inventories. In fact my opinion is that this is positive for SPC as it mean cheaper crude and high petroleum product price. SPC key profit is derived from refining and hence high refining margin is most beneficial.
The global weather outlook for this year is not too good. Europe is predicting a very hot summer while US an above average hurrican season. The systoms for a coming La Nina in 2-3months remains.
The elements at this moment are moving in SPC favours.
A bit disappointed to see so many have drop out from SPC but I am guess most will be coming back maybe in less than 2 weeks time.
idesa-yi-lou-fah,
I hope you will profit as well. I bought it pre EX-DIV so I did get the extra prezzie together with a tidy profit yesterday. :p
As I recalled, the bunch of (shares and warrants) people went through a lot during its low period as you probably know. The group motivated and encouraged each other. Amazing bunch and an amazing counter.!.!