YZJ Shipbldg SGD    Last:2.18    -0.02

Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

Any current TA view for YZJ? bull or bear 

 

I train as an accountant cum auditor, and many year ago i trade using fundamental approach, and lost more than 100k ..........

A year ago, i started technical analysis, and go in very very deep.........................guess what, my return for 2008 year to date is 78%.....

so I only beleive in technical ...."Chart do not Lie, but analyst lie"

 

Frankly, I am not sure whether YZJ is fundamentally good or not.

I have stopped looking at Fundamental Analysis for many years already because I find it very time consuming and many stocks' good fundamentals do not translate into good share price.

elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jun-2008 18:25) Posted: have to be careful on the concept of fundamentals. base it on reality, not hearsay, analysts' talk, or impression. Factually: yzj NAV = 137.92 RMB, cf to previous year 20.83. (converted = 27.45c vs 4c previously in S$.). Means fair value at 1.5x book to price is 41c. Even if we were to assume same sizzling rate of growth (92% increase in earnings), future NAV would be ~50c; at 1.5x book to price =75c derived as fair full-valued support for yzj for the year. yzj is a growth stock for fast trading, not a fundamental stock for holding. don't mistake one for the other because both require different trading strats, and it can be a deadly mistake in the first parameter of stock selection.

 

Peer: Marine Sector - Shipbuilding

                         Semcorp Marine  ASL Marine     YZJ            JES       Jaya Holdings

Curr.P                  $4.05                  $1.24           $0.875       $0.315         $1.65

P/E(ttm)               32.56                    6.31            13.74           7.83           8.88 

NAV(cents)         $0.7629              $0.7154       $0.2746     $0.2981       $0.5203 

       

 

In addition to NAV, can also look at the PE ratio for comparision: Cosco 21, CH Offshore 8, JES 8, Sembcorp Marine 34, ASL Marine 8 and YZJ 16.

 

have to be careful on the concept of fundamentals. base it on reality, not hearsay, analysts' talk, or impression.

Factually:

yzj NAV = 137.92 RMB, cf to previous year 20.83. (converted = 27.45c vs 4c previously in S$.). Means fair value at 1.5x book to price is 41c. Even if we were to assume same sizzling rate of growth (92% increase in earnings), future NAV would be ~50c; at 1.5x book to price =75c derived as fair full-valued support for yzj for the year.

yzj is a growth stock for fast trading, not a fundamental stock for holding. don't mistake one for the other because both require different trading strats, and it can be a deadly mistake in the first parameter of stock selection.

 

In short, trading based on TA is the way to go. Fundamentals can be good, but when market condition is bad, good fundamental stocks are subject to major sell off also.

 

agreed time will prove the worth of stock. there is an article in Zaobao today on Mid n Long term investment will beat Inflation.

 

yes, the market will finally recover. but how long will u like to wait? usually a bear market last two years. with NEW CENTURY SHIPBUILDING company coming to list in STI soon, the largest private shipbuilding co. in China,which aim to raise 1 billion USD, i think YZJ have much more space to drop. 50 cents?

 

I agree...As long as the price is comfortable with you...Just buy it and wait for time to prove its worth!!!!

 www.investinsgx.com

jackjames      ( Date: 28-Jun-2008 11:10) Posted: we must have a targeted price.. else, whenever it drops, we will said it will get cheaper and cheaper.. end up, you will never buy and miss the cheong .... for example, who will know 0.78 is the u-turn point and shoot to 1.10... and that is handsome 40% gain.. so, my philosophy is, the fundamental should stay, so, when the price is right, just cash in and wait for the harvest time.

 

Read this in one website on rules on investing ... One of them is:

Rule 9. When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen

As Stovall, the S&P investment strategist, puts it: "If everybody's optimistic, who is left to buy? If everybody's pessimistic, who's left to sell?" Going against the herd as Farrell repeatedly suggests can be very profitable, especially for patient buyers who raise cash from frothy markets and reinvest it when sentiment is darkest.

 

 

we must have a targeted price.. else, whenever it drops, we will said it will get cheaper and cheaper.. end up, you will never buy and miss the cheong .... for example, who will know 0.78 is the u-turn point and shoot to 1.10... and that is handsome 40% gain.. so, my philosophy is, the fundamental should stay, so, when the price is right, just cash in and wait for the harvest time.

 

Friend, cheap cheap can get ever cheaper......

From Fundamental view, as lot of china counter is trading below PE 8x, and based on PE 8x, YZJ fair value is about 0.80, (so don't buy anything above this level), and so very poor senstiment, i think maybe 60 cents to 70 cents then can buy

 

still holding some loh, due to its the component's stock. If SGX missed then suck thumb leow.

jackjames      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 12:14) Posted: you still hold meh? i thought u sell already.. actually, for long term, be it 0.87 or 0.78, should just sekaligus buy it.... because it doesn't make any difference, 10% only... for long term, of course, 1.20, 2.40.. heee... too optimistic eh?

 

The low was 78 cents... so now is 87 cents ... so far and yet so near ...

The cost of operating is getting higher especially ... the fuel price .... that drives everything up ..... 

StephenTan      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 22:55) Posted: my chart show yzj had break the support today

 

my chart show yzj had break the support today

 

yes,,,,,,,,im buy more tis morning,,,,,,,,,,,,the price im strong recommend buy ,,,,,,,,,,,,,cheap cheap buy if got lower,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,cheeers,,,,,,,,,,,865,,,,875,,,and 92cts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,i think the 85cts new share vendor time to take action liao,,,,,,,after they borrow to short seller for them take advangtage of hedge lodge,,,,,,,,buy timing coming,,,,,,,,now wait to see us governmebt tke action recue plant for oil cool down project.......buy akan datang

 

2.40 is too optimistic, 1.20 is definitely achievable la..

my number is based on today pricing and the support point formed.. not cin cai number lei..

 

 

$1.20 & $2.40 too optimistic lah. Since you said there is no difference in re-shuffling the numbers ($0.78 or $0.87), I sugegst you re-shuffle your optimistic numbers too....$0.21 & $0.42...$0.12 & $0.24...LOL, just joking OK.

 

you still hold meh? i thought u sell already..

actually, for long term, be it 0.87 or 0.78, should just sekaligus buy it.... because it doesn't make any difference, 10% only... for long term, of course, 1.20, 2.40.. heee... too optimistic eh?