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Gold & metals

EU and IMF to lay groundwork for Irish rescue

中国珠宝刘洋溢2010-11-16 16:26

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上海黄金交易所黄金延期AU(T+D)，白银延期AG(T+D)投资分析：

    上海黄金交易所今日全线黄金交易品种小幅低开后，跌势放缓，维持窄幅震荡。市场成交略显清淡，市场中卖盘大增，交易员见跌势略放缓将短线空头平仓，起到一定承接作用。黄金延期AU(T+D)收报292.60元/克，较前一交易日结算价跌1.66元/克，成交量较高，持仓量略有下降，递延费支付方向空付多。铂金PT9995收报370.40元/克，跌1.38元/克，成交量极高。

    基本面方面，周一欧盟统计局公布的数据显示，修正后希腊2009年预算赤字占GDP的比例为15.4%，初值为13.6%，2009年希腊财政赤字占国内生产总值(GDP)比重大幅上修。黄金的避险功能限制了价格的跌幅。尽管如此，贵金属价格依旧惯性下跌，当前处于下跌过程中的盘整阶段，并继续测试底部的支撑。国际现货金价维持在1360美元/盎司附近震荡。多空双方均较为谨慎，市场依旧有进一步下测支撑的可能，在1350美元/盎司的支撑力度较为关键，一旦被突破，国际金价可能会向着1320美元/盎司附近寻求新的支撑。

    上海黄金交易所白银延期AG(T+D)今日延续大幅下挫，收报5731元/千克，较前一交易日结算价跌226元/千克。今日市场成交量极高，创历史点高位。持仓量近期回升，递延费支付方向为多付空。技术指标来看，白银短线走势转为偏空，后市仍有进一步下挫的可能性，当前走势上面明确出现见底迹象，更没有反弹的太多迹象。当前不建议持有多单，也不建议在底部形成之前就早早将多单埋入。在不断的下测过程中，空单可以尝试少量介入。

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/16/2010

Gold loses 1 pct as euro hits 6-wk low vs dollar

PRECIOUS-Gold falls for third day, dented by dollar strength

 * Soros cuts gold holdings

 * Johnson Matthey upbeat on PGM outlook in 2011

 * Coming up: U.S. October CPI; Nov 17, 1330 GMT

 (Updates throughout with comment, prices)

 By Amanda Cooper

 LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Gold fell for a third successive
day to its lowest in two weeks on Tuesday as a stronger dollar
kept commodities under pressure, offsetting the lift to bullion
from concern over the Irish debt crisis.

 While gold often benefits from heightened investor aversion
to riskier assets, it can often be caught up in a torrent of
liquidation as investors seek to plug losses elsewhere in their 

This was the case in October 2008, following the collapse of
Lehman Brothers, which prompted a 17 percent drop in the S&P 500
.SXP and a 16.6 percent fall in gold that month.

 Spot gold XAU= fell to a session low of $1,351.60 an ounce
and recovered to $1,353.70 an ounce by 1440 GMT, down from
$1,360.09 the day before. U.S. gold futures GCZ0 fell 1.1
percent to $1,354.20 an ounce.

 "Gold is a risk asset, we saw that post-Lehman Brothers,
when everyone thought gold would benefit and it sold off," said
Credit Agricole analyst Robin Bhar.

 "People would liquidate, given that they've probably secured
good profits in the gold market ... and have taken some money
off the table," he said.

 Gold, which is still up 24 percent so far this year, has
lost about 4 percent over the last week in the broad sell-off
that has knocked copper, crude oil and grains, which have in
turned suffered from mounting expectations for more monetary 

FUNDS COOL TO GOLD

 Coupled with flows out of hard assets was a cooling towards
bullion from some of the world's best-known gold bulls. 

 The most recent quarterly securities filings showed George
Soros cut his exposure to gold in the last quarter, along with
Eric Mindich. 

 "Commodities generally are on the back foot at the moment
... everything feels a bit on hold. We've had a pretty volatile
period over the last couple of weeks and things seem to have
blown themselves out for the time being," said Scotia Moccatta
head of precious metals Simon Weeks.

 "Gold is wrapped up in the commodities story, which is often
the case in the short term and then it often recovers as a
currency afterwards."

  Ireland came under intense pressure on Tuesday to request
aid over its debt crunch in what the European Council's
president called a "survival crisis" for the euro zone and the
wider European Union. 

 The euro briefly turned negative against the dollar before
creeping higher for a 0.2 percent gain on the day after data
showed a sharp rise in capital inflows into the United States in
September and a separate report showed a surprise fall in 

Yet several analysts echoed the view that the current
decline in gold prices would likely be temporary.

 "Pressure on interest rates has in our view been one of the
key drivers behind the latest precious metals rally," said
Credit Suisse in a note.

 "However, we view the current pullback across the sector as
temporary as we expect the fundamental backdrop to remain
favorable."

 Gold priced in euros XAUEUR=R and Swiss francs XAUCHF=R
was largely unchanged on the day but up in yen XAUJPY=R and
sterling terms XAUGBP=R.

 Spot silver XAG= was last at $25.45 an ounce, against
$25.42 the day before, having risen earlier to a session peak at
$25.85.

 Platinum and palladium were both down on the day, in line
with other industrial commodities, shrugging off a bullish
outlook for the market next year from refiner Johnson Matthey ,
which said improving supply and demand fundamentals should bring 

PRECIOUS-Gold dips as dollar offsets lift from risk aversion

 * Soros cuts gold holdings

 * CME raises margins on precious metals

 * Coming up: Johnson Matthey Interim Review; 1300 GMT

 
 By Amanda Cooper

 LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Gold remained near its lowest in
nearly two weeks on Tuesday as a stronger dollar kept
commodities under pressure, offsetting the lift to bullion from
concern over the Irish debt crisis.

 While gold often benefits from heightened investor aversion
to riskier assets, it has been swept lower in the broad sell-off
that has knocked copper, crude oil and grains, which have in
turned suffered from mounting expectations for more monetary
tightening in top raw materials consumer China.

 Coupled with flows out of hard assets was a cooling towards
bullion from some of the world's best-known gold bulls. 

The most recent quarterly securities filings showed George
Soros cut his exposure to gold in the last quarter, along with
Eric Mindich. 

 Spot gold fell to a session low of $1,355.15 an ounce
and recovered to $1,359.90 an ounce by 1140 GMT, down from
$1,360.09 the day before. U.S. gold futures GCZ0 fell 0.7
percent to $1,358.90 an ounce.
      
 "Commodities generally are on the back foot at the moment
... everything feels a bit on hold. We've had a pretty volatile
period over the last couple of weeks and things seem to have
blown themselves out for the time being," said Scotia Moccatta
head of precious metals Simon Weeks.
      
 "Gold is wrapped up in the commodities story, which is often
the case in the short term and then it often recovers as a
currency afterwards."
      

      
IRISH DEBT IN FOCUS
        
 Euro zone finance ministers will try to find a way to end
Ireland's debt crisis on Tuesday, with Dublin resisting pressure
to seek a state bailout by signalling that only its banks may
need help.
        
 The dollar is holding around six-week highs against the yen
and the euro, driven by concern about Ireland's spiralling debt
service costs and rising U.S. Treasury yields. 
        

        
But several analysts echoed the view that the current
decline in gold prices would likely be temporary.
        
 "Pressure on interest rates has in our view been one of the
key drivers behind the latest precious metals rally," said
Credit Suisse in a note.
        
 "However, we view the current pullback across the sector as
temporary as we expect the fundamental backdrop to remain
favorable."
        
 Gold priced in euros  and Swiss francs was largely unchanged on the day but up in yen XAUJPY=R and
sterling terms 
        

        
Speculation of more monetary tightening in China and other
Asian countries also worried traders. South Korea's central bank
raised interest rates for the second time since the global
crisis and signalled further tightening as it shifted its focus
away from heavy fund inflows to rising inflation.
          

          
 Traders in Asia said a decision by the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange to raise margin requirements for all four precious
metals could lead to additional liquidation.
          

          
 Spot silver XAG= was last at $25.45 an ounce, against
$25.42 the day before, having risen earlier to a session peak at
$25.85.
          
 Platinum and palladium were both down on the day, in line
with other industrial commodities, ahead of the release of
Johnson Matthey's closely-watched report of market balances and
supply and demand outlooks for the two metals at 1300 GMT.
          
 Platinum XPT= fell to $1,664.24 an ounce, down 0.4 percent
on the day. Palladium was down 0.4 percent at $666.72.
 (Additional reporting by Rujun Shen in Singapore; Editing by
William Hardy)


        
      
    

PRECIOUS-Gold steady; European debt, inflation worry support

 * Gold seen to consolidate after sharp fall

 * Gold to fall to $1,341 - technicals [ID:nSGE6AE00P]

 * Coming up: U.S. October retail sales; 1330 GMT

 By Rujun Shen

 SINGAPORE, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Gold prices were steady on
Monday, after the sharpest fall in four months in the previous
session, as inflation concerns and sovereign debt issues in
Europe offered support.

 Spot gold XAU= was little changed at $1,366.95 an ounce
by 0331 GMT, after falling three percent on Friday as talks of
an imminent interest rates hike in China triggered a broad
sell-off across the financial markets. 

 Debt woes in Europe continued to brew, with Ireland on
Sunday saying it did not rule out the possibility that it may
have to turn to Europe for help in dealing with its debt
crisis. For related stories, click 

 Leadership meetings of the Group of 20 and APEC held last
week largely failed to offer guidance on currency issues vexing
the global economy.
"G20 and APEC meetings last week didn't really give a clear
direction to the market," said Peter Fung, head of the dealing
department at Wing Fung Precious Metals, "The market is mixed
from here on, with today's range likely to be $1,350 to $1,380
today."
 While some short-covering was spotted in the market, others
were seen liquidating long positions, as the market takes a
breather from the record-breaking rally, Fung said.
 Also offering support to the market, Vietnam has abolished
the import duty on gold in another effort to cool domestic
prices of the metal after it has granted gold import quotas
last week, a state-run newspaper reported. [ID:nHAN122981]
 Spot gold XAU= is expected to fall more to $1,341 per
ounce based on a bearish triangle pattern on the hourly chart,
said Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst. 
 For a 24-hour gold technical outlook, see:
 here
 "We may see some consolidation, but the overall trend is
still looking up, as the Federal Reserve's second round of
quantitative easing sets the tone for ample liquidity for the
first half of 2011," said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO
Futures.
 "We have seen a quite volatile market in the past week, as
investors were nervous after prices hit record highs. We could


see gold pull back to $1,330 to $1,350 level."
CHINA CONCERN
 Li said a major factor in the market is China. The world's
largest gold producer and fast-growing gold consumer, saw its
consumer inflation index jump to a 25-month high in October.
 "While people are worried about inflation and have shown a
growing appetite to invest in gold, a rate hike would knock
prices down," said Li.
 China should move to a more prudent monetary policy and
guard against risks from loose money conditions used to counter
the global financial crisis, a central bank researcher said.
 The prospects of further tightening in China, together with
euro zone debt woes, kept sentiment in the financial markets
fragile.
 Spot silver XAG= rose as much as 1.8 percent to $26.46,
before easing to $26.10.

  Precious metals prices at 0331 GMT

 Metal             Last    Change  Pct chg  YTD pct chg
Turnover
 Spot Gold        1366.95    0.60   +0.04     24.76
 Spot Silver        26.10    0.11   +0.42     55.08


 Spot Platinum    1672.74   -6.26   -0.37     14.02 
Dollar hits 5-week high vs yen


Nov 15 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a fresh five-week high against the yen on Monday, breaking above its 55-day moving average, as rising U.S. bond yields prompted further short-covering in the U.S. currency. 

 

PRECIOUS-Gold rebounds after sell-off; weaker dollar aids

session on talk of an imminent interest rate hike by China that
triggered a broad commodities decline.

 FUNDAMENTALS

 * Spot gold XAU= rose by 0.5 percent to $1,373.15 an
ounce by 0012 GMT, after posting its sharpest daily decline in
four months on Friday.

 * China stocks fell more than five percent on Friday for
their biggest percentage loss in over a year, while global
stocks, bonds and commodities also on the rate hike fear.
[ID:nLDE6AB0Y8] [MKTS/GLOB]

 * U.S. gold futures GCZ0 gained 0.5 percent to $1,373.2.

 * The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies
.DXY, and the confusion over aid for Ireland and concerns
about a prospective tightening in China kept the euro and


higher-yielding currencies on the defensive. [USD/]
 * Ireland did not rule out the possibility that it may have
to turn to Europe for help in dealing with its debt crisis on
Sunday, but said that no application had been made for
assistance yet. [ID:nLDE6AD09T]
 * Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed
exchange-backed fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), remained unchanged
at 1,290.855 tonnes. [GOL/SPDR]
 * Vietnam has abolished the import duty on gold in another
effort to cool domestic prices of the metal after it has
granted gold import quotas earlier in the week, a state-run
newspaper reported. [ID:nHAN122981]
 * Spot silver XAG= gained 0.6 percent to $26.14, after
falling to a one-week low of $25.80 on Friday.

 PRICES
 Precious metals prices at 0012 GMT
 Metal             Last    Change  Pct chg  YTD pct chg
Turnover
 Spot Gold        1373.15    6.80   +0.50     25.32
 Spot Silver        26.14    0.15   +0.58     55.32
 Spot Platinum    1684.24    5.24   +0.31     14.81

London Gold Market Report

THE PRICE OF GOLD gave back the last of this week's move to new Dollar and Sterling record-highs in London trade on Friday, but held nearly 1.8% stronger for Eurozone investors as the Irish debt crisis forced a joint statement from European leaders attending the G20 summit in Seoul. 

US stock markets opened the day 0.5% lower – and broad commodity markets fell over 1.5% – as rumors spread of a possible tightening in Chinese interest rates following yesterday's stronger-than-expected consumer price inflation figures.

Silver prices meantime fell below last Friday's finish against all major currencies, losing more than 10% from Tuesday's 30-year high above $29 per ounce.
 
Government-bond prices also fell worldwide, pushing 10-year UK gilt yields towards 3-month highs above 3.25%.

The G20 summit ended with an agreement to give emerging economies more votes in the International Monetary Fund (China moves from 6th to 3rd place), but lacked the accusation of "undervaluation" in the Chinese Yuan which the United States' delegation called for.

"The United States of America [would] never do that," said US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to CNBC overnight.



"We will never weaken our currency as a tool of competitive advantage or a way to grow our economy."

Since Geithner took office, first as president of the New York Fed in 2003, and then as Treasury Secretary in 2009, the US Dollar has dropped one-third of its international trade-weighted value.


Real US interest rates – after inflation – have been negative in 44 of the 84 months he's been leading monetary or fiscal policy.

The gold price in Dollars has risen by nearly 250%.

"Given the shifts between different governments in terms of fiscal and monetary policy," says GFMS Analytics' Rhona O'Connell, writing at MineWeb, investors can expect "sustained support for gold – which, after all, thrives on uncertainty.

"Morgan Stanley economists are looking for a significant jump in Q4 US GDP, but with the Fed in printing mode the Dollar will remain under pressure...against the majority of currencies in the coming months.

"Especially since the prognosis is based on uncertain economic performance, this points to sustained interest in gold as a hedge against Dollar weakness and volatility based on vulnerability."

Morgan Stanley does caution investors now buying gold, however, over the large number of "short Dollar" positions in the currency market, O'Connell notes.

Short-sellers in the silver market were over-run and forced to buy silver – closing out their losing positions – as the price shot 53% higher from Sept. to this week's peak.

Trading volumes in London's wholesale silver bullion market last month rose almost 19% to a two-year record by value, new data from the London Bullion Market Association showed on Friday.

Gold dealing volumes were less spectacular, rising 8% by Dollar-value to the highest level since June's Greek deficit crisis hit the Euro.

"Whatever the debate within the Euro area about the future permanent crisis resolution mechanism," said a joint statement from the French, German, Italian, Spanish and UK governments today – all meeting in Seoul for the G20 summit – "we are clear that this does not apply to any outstanding debt and any program under current instruments."

Irish bond yields eased back from this morning's record 9% levels on the news, but Italian bond prices fell, pushing their yield-premium over comparable German Bunds to new all-time highs.

Germany's proposal, late last month, that bond holders should suffer some level of loss if a Eurozone state defaults on its debts was today called "unhelpful" by Irish prime minister Brian Cowen.

Dublin needs to borrow €23.5 billion next year, the National Treasury Management Agency said today, some 12% of Ireland's economic output and 14% more than 2010.

Irish banks meantime raised their borrowing from the European Central Bank to €130 billion last month, ECB data showed.

"We are monitoring the situation in Ireland on a permanent basis," said European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso today, also in Seoul for the G20 summit.

"We have all the necessary instruments in place...in case of need."

In Asian trading early on Friday, rumors that Beijing will block foreign investment in real estate compounded fears of a weekend interest-rate hike, says one Hong Kong gold dealer, leading to a liquidation of many short-term commodity trades.

"The Shanghai gold premium," says a London dealer, "which had traded out to as much as $52 [per ounce above London prices] on Wednesday, narrowed to $9 as the Chinese market turned a heavy seller of the metals."

Volatility in global gold prices created a brief arbitrage opportunity for Indian gold investors earlier this week, according to the Economic Times.

"Big investors who purchased when prices were around 19,600 [Rupees] a tola have become sellers at 20,600," says Ashish Mundhra of Mundhra Bullion in Chennai.

Tola bars, a common unit for gold bullion in the Middle East and sub-continent, weigh 11.7 grams, a little over one-third of an ounce.

"Currently, kilo bars are available in the market at 17,000 [Rupee] discount to the bank rate" – almost 1%.

Adrian Ash

Head of Research