SPC   

SPC

Views or analysis whether they are positive or negative should have good basis but for that Zaobao report, I can only shake my head. I could not stomach it when it is coming from such an important media.

 

wow, I didn't expect such strong reaction to Zaobao's analysis. While I was a little surprise to see it going against the current trend, I always like reading something that is contrarian . Anyway, anyhow, one should not blindly believe any reports, good or bad, optimistic or pessimistic.

 

Singapore's External Trade - April 2007

Oil Domestic Exports
9. Oil domestic exports expanded by 18 per cent in April 2007 after contracting by 9.4 per cent in March 2007. The growth in oil domestic exports was due to increased sales to Hong Kong (+83 per cent), Indonesia (+82 per cent), Australia (+28 per cent) and China (+54 per cent) in the month. In volume terms, oil domestic exports also grew by 35 per cent in April 2007 following a 4.1 per cent drop in March 2007.

 

Forget about Zaobao.

I just wrote to Philips requesting that they write a FA and SPC. I provided some feedback.

Only received a reply to say thank you for your valuable feedback.

 

yes, certainly elf,  and ... Jkbk007.. we should keep our letter to Zaobao without quoting names..  

 

thanks cks, but wah, pls don't involve me in any news media etc! i'm only a forumer here; they're sure to qn what does a young punk like me know abt TA when their analyst prob has a finance degree etc from some prestigious place or something.

anw, my aim is just to give as fair a perspective on a stock as is possible for me; whether i'm vested or not shd not make a dif to the tech call.

 

and a great post for you too Elf...!!!  two ticks!!

yes jkbk007.. perhaps you can add elf's point to the Zaobao management.. and it would be great to let us know what is their response....

 

erm, ok, i don't know who the zaobao techie is, but whoever he/she is, it's giving TA a bad rep.

jkbk, it is possible to do TA without knowing the fundamentals. but a good tech analyst has to be able to give the reasons why the trend is this way, and not just quote figures out of the blue.

the last time i checked SPC's techs, it was consistent uptrend. esp if you look at the busd data: for past trading sessions it's consistent large lots buy up. Also broke the resistance of 4.96 that was earlier called. Nothing to suggest it's going down.

note: a/d and c/o not very accurate on SPC tho; so perhaps the analyst didn't do a backtest to see if his/her indicators worked correctly on the counter or not.

 

great post Jkbk007..  !!  Yes we should do our part to let the Zaobao know that irresponsible reporting is bad for everybody...

 

I meant ....without looking at the fundamental.

 

Just wrote a complaint letter to Zaobao.

Baseless TA analysis especially on long term forecast. How can one do long term price prediction with looking at the fundamental. This is obviously an analyst who looks at everything and only know a bit here and there. He is either lazy or crappy analyst.

 

aiyoh, that Zaobao analyst need to have his head examined...  if he is sane I would like to challenge him to a bet, to put the money his money where his mouth is.. another ruan ruan kong...ruan3chu3sia4..

 

Thks shplayer for the assurance. The Zaobao's analysis did shake my confirdent!

 

Eastonbay

If SPC down to $4.04----I will ship all my money from australia to buy up as much shares possible.

 

shplayer, thanks for the reassurance.

 

All, I forgot to add that Zaobao's analysis is based purely on TA. There was no mention of volume (which is one factor that is essential in Singaporegal's TA analysis. I have no idea how they come to such conclusion.

 

EastonBay,

I wouldn't be too pessimistic about SPC.

If you consider the fundementals, 2007 will end up a very good year for SPC.

1Q came in at eps of 21c. Comparing current crude and product price, refining margins (RM) for 2Q seems pretty strong.

Capacity will be further affected in Jun/July when Exxon shuts down their 309 bpd plant for 45 days to carry out scheduled maintenance....thereby probably keeping RM high.

Upstream OYANG field scheduled to start production in Jun adding additional revenue stream to SPC.

Recent news of SPC upping their stake in Aussie TAP Oil will bolster their upstream profile.....and they are getting it on the cheap. TAP was trading on the ASX at about A$1.50.....and recently gapped up to about A$1.60 upon the news. Based on available data of TAP's proven oil/gas reserves and cash holding, I estimate  its NTA to be at least A$3.00.

If the zaobao's prediction comes thru, I will view it as a great opportunity to accumulate more SPC.

 

Eastonbay,pls note that SPC went down to 4.68 is due to xd.so basically uptrend still intact.

 

Not yet.....I may not post here as there is little feedback from people but I will raise a topic on global warming and energy.

Weather plays a significant role on energy demand. In particular global warming is already having a big impact to energy. Frequently we hear news on hurrican and its possible impact to energy. We all know that Katrina and its impact but are we going to see something similar this year. Fact is storms, hurricans and  typhoons are appearing more frequently and in increasing strength. Hurricans are forces where human are quite defensely against. They are huge can be a few hundred miles wide. A Cat 4 hitting ashore will no doubt cause mass destruction. Warmer weather and El Nina will only elevate the chance of such re-occurence. However there is something few people are aware of. Huge among of dust can help reduce the intensity of hurrican season. Big volcanic eruptions and sandstorms are something you want to look out for.

 

jkbk, u finished your 4 part series on SPC already ah? how come never hear anything liao.

 

ru guo shi you yi zhi xiang shang, sing jia pou shi you ze me hui xiang xia ne, zhi hui xiang shang chong.

 

 

i cant imagine how long i too to type that.