SPC   

SPC

keeping updated on refinery margins achieved by SRC is the main problem.
i can only find figures on global refinery margins and the info on singapore complex refinery margins which only reflect the rises and declines and not the actual value achieved.

only in the last report on Saudi Amarco's oil export to Asia indicated a 40% rise in margins in April of US$7 to US$10 by JPMorgan / Credit Suisse / one of those investment house. Does anyone have a source for SRC's monthly refinery margins?

 

idesa168, now that 2Q is most likely going to be good, i wish to highlight 3Q and 4Q.

for EPS of 28cents for second half, each quarter EPS would be 14cents. when placed with 2H FY06, asking for EPS of 28cents is more than optimistic. we saw inventories writedowns and a warm winter season in second half, EPS of 4.5cents and 11.1cents for 3Q and 4Q.

question is
- will oil prices fall in 2H and result in writedown in inv
- will hurricanes affect US refineries
- will winter be colder/warmer this year

all we know is we can safely say that FY07 will definitely be better than FY06's EPS of 55cents.

 

i dont PLAY with my money. but u r welcomed to PLAY warrants.

 

142...I think u and I have the same sentiments for SPC. Our estimates seems to be ard the same. Below was the message I posted for shplayer sometime back. I am in for the ride! I hope u are.

 

Q1 @21¢, lets est Q2 which will be better than Q1 to be @26¢ conservatively, we will have 47¢ for the 1H07. Even with close down of refinery for maintenance on the 2nd half of the yr, it shd be able to amass another 28¢ to 33¢. This will make the total of about 75¢ to 80¢ in EPS. Based on 8x PE (currently trading), the share price will be ard the range of $6.00 to $6.40 (+45¢ of dividends you mentioned). I am a little nervous now seeing the figure I projected....am I too optimistic? Whichever the case, I will be holding on for a long long time.

 

Might be good to play with the warrants instead of mother.

 

geojam, i nv no worries about SPC achieving EPS 77-80cents if economy maintains. only worry is the US slowdown and china bubble probably affecting both share price and earnings. however, nobody knows if they will come this year.

would like to know.. how many ppl here are ready to hold onto SPC through the roller coaster ride?

 

refinery margins for 1Q average US$7.

refinery margins for 2Q are up together with export volume.

 

onefour02

My estimate for EPS FY07 is 77 to 80 cents.

With good RM,the eps may be better.

Bear in mind,the RM fell from US$6 a barrel to US$3 a barrel.Now shd be better---i do not have the latest. 

 

nickyng pls let us know when u short. lol.

 

geojam what are u expecting for FY07 EPS?

 

Ah jackjames wants to protect against any possible market corrections and comes back in during the correction.

Good strategy!

 

hee..waiting for the right opportunity to short this burger :) ...hee...akan datang soon i think?  :)

 

My estimate is 42 cents divvy next year.At $5.15 represent a good yield.

 

chinkiasu, $200k seems alot to me, but CNA forum thread got 1 bro with over 100 lots. he has no intention to sell at all and want to accumulate during correction. mini mini buffett.

 

i ran out of bullets when it was 4.16 only managed to average 4.60

 

jackjames, good for u to exit near, else u cant sleep at night.

 

ha ha ha.. u should put all money while it was 4.16 ! keekkekke... anyway, remember, market correction is coming, **grin**

 

 

alamak, onefour02, my arithmetic not good... just giving 007 something to hang on leh.. ok, even if divvy is till like this year, it is 6% certainly better than 3% you get from bank... so total of 20%... so 007 just hang on to this figure if you are tempted to sell.... if you have $200,000 vested we are talking of $40,000!!!!  I can have many jugs of beer!!

 

I recently bought into SPC (in fact if I did not remember wrongly, it was the same day that the petrol price was increased). All my frens thought I was nutz to buy at such a high price (4.9++)

I knew that I was buying at a premium cos it was still CD. But I decided that it was worth buying into it as a hedge for the rising petrol price. I'm sitting on a nice profit now and would not be looking to unload.

 The chart is looking bullish and if it breaks the $5.20 resistance with conviction, that will become a support. Good luck to all!!

 

 

well, next year dividend is good too, just that there surely will be a correction, by then, I will buy again~ no doubts it will test 6.00, but when? i don't know, u don't know... but one thing for sure is i am out of market and waiting for golden time to enter big time..