Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

I dont think the selldown in Biosensors has anything to do with the US Healthcare bill.

 It has more to do with contra players and weak holders giving up, after failing to see the stock price follow thru, after Nomura's encouraging report.

The bill affects the insurers the most, as they are required to insure everyone, regardless of their health.

Secondly, most pharmaceautical firms were worried about a price cap for drugs, etc, but it did not happen.

Thirdly, Biosensors does not have any businesses in the US mkt.

For info only. Not a call to buy/sell.

 

Wednesday, 24th March 2010 after Lunch

STI Fear Epidemic  Infected ALL counters. 

S$0.755  -S$0.025

 

support at 0.74....

 

Big correction is in process after USA annoucing HEALTH BILL.

dhalinx      ( Date: 24-Mar-2010 10:08) Posted: Going down now. Any ideas...?  Thx.

 

Going down now. Any ideas...?  Thx.

 

Biosensors

 

Likely more upside after successful rebound off key support

 

Key support tested. Biosensors could be poised for further upside

 

after initiating a successful rebound off the $0.78 key resistanceturned-

 

support, 8-month uptrend line and 50-DMA on heavy volume

 

yesterday.

 

Indicators are turning bullish. With the RSI initiating a rebound

 

at the 30% mark (oversold region) and the MACD histogram

 

showing signs of a bullish turnaround in the negative region (see

 

enlarged chart), they suggest that the upside momentum could be

 

improving.

 

Initial resistance at $0.85. On the upside, we peg the initial

 

resistance at $0.85 (support-turned-resistance), breaking which,

 

the next resistance is at $0.90 (52-week high).

 

Immediate support at $0.78. Meanwhile, $0.78 is now the

 

immediate support, ahead of $0.74 (resistance-turned-support) and

 

$0.66 (key resistance-turned-support).

 

18 Mar 2010 MITA No. 020/06/2009

 

Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this document.

 

Philip Teo

 

(65) 6531 9807

 

 

CHARTVIEWS For 18th March 2010

Biosensors - Likely more upside after successful rebound off key support

Levels to Watch in Trading:        Resistance set at S$0.85
                                       Support set at S$0.78

Stock Rating:                        No Rating
Target Px:                                NA

Last Closing Px:                        S$0.795
52-week Px Range:                        S$0.375 - S$0.900

SGX Code:                                B20
BLP Code:                                BIG SP Equity

 

Heard OCBC called a technical buy on Bios. My broker on leave. Anyone got the details. Topdog22 thanks for summary on bio by Nomua. 

 

Is BIG a good buy today? Today should sell on strength?

 

Biosensors's always in my watch list... As 4 e trend, I guess Keepnosecret shd noe better. Hope Keepnosecret'll post sm advices here lor...

('',)

qwerty84      ( Date: 17-Mar-2010 12:42) Posted: price gonna shoot up once 80cent break free. =). Bon3260 whats your view

 

price gonna shoot up once 80cent break free. =). Bon3260 whats your view

 

Those Sell Shorts pple r starting panic liao... ('',)

 

FYI  excerpt from the NOMURA  RESEARCH REPORT   ISSUED   MARCH 16, 2010 

"Biosensors International BIG SP

HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS | SINGAPORE

Jit Soon Lim, CFA +65 6433 6969 jitsoon.lim@nomura.com

Yuan Yiu Tsai +65 6433 6964 yuanyiu.tsai@nomura.com

 

Nomura vs consensus

We believe consensus

underestimates BIG’s core earnings

despite recognizing its strong

revenue growth trend.

 

Anchor themes

The US$5bn DES industry is one of the most profitable segments in the medical

technology space, with market share changes driven by innovation. Start-ups like

Biosensors, with leading-edge technology, are subject to takeovers by incumbents

Addressing concerns

�� Concerns on stent pricing in China are overdone

In its 4Q09 conference call, Weigao management opined that its worst

case for central tender pricing is a 25% cut in terminal ASPs, which

would only be effective in 2H10. Management sees a base case cut of

10-15%, which would not be fully passed through to the ex-factory

price. We believe Weigao management’s guidance exceeds market

expectations and advise investors to focus on the sustainable volume

growth potential of 30% pa in China’s stent market.

�� Not only an M&A play

While we have previously highlighted a potential takeout as a possible

scenario for BIG (see

2009), our PT does not price in any acquisition potential. As a base

case, we believe investors should view BIG as a sustainable company

with the following value drivers: 1) robust earnings growth from

BioMatrix in the EU, Asia and LatAm; 2) strong contributions from its

China JV, and; 3) positioning in Japan via Terumo. In our view, its

recent re-rating is on the back of strong operating performance and

investor recognition of its China JV, rather than M&A potential.Moving past the inflexion point, 16 October,

�� Consensus behind the curve, in our view

We believe there is room for a consensus earnings upgrade. While

consensus revenue is largely in-line with ours, a huge discrepancy

exists in Street core earnings (ex-JWMS). Net profit for 9M FY10 (ex-

JWMS) already exceeds the consensus FY10 forecast by 32%.

�� Reiterate BUY; attractive entry level post correction

We have moderated our earnings estimates by 5% to account for a

15% ASP decline at JWMS; thus, we revise our price target to S$1.17,

which still leaves ~50% upside potential. We believe the recent share

price correction presents an attractive entry level. Reiterate BUY."

 

Believe things will goes better if they decided to list JVMS.

The valuation for BIG will definitely be adjusted, then CS will come out and shout for BIG.

 

Ha ha agreed... good observation... BIG must be rueing the day they decided to list here...

topdog22      ( Date: 16-Mar-2010 11:38) Posted: This is an interesting observation.  I have researched current stock selling prices in the US, China and Singapore.  It seems that the US's current sales price for a stock is based on projected earnings - that may be realized 12 months in the future, China currently prices stock for projected earning that may be realizied  24 months in the future.  We in Singapore currently price a stock for earning that occurred 12 months in the past.    hotokee      ( Date: 11-Mar-2010 07:38) Posted: Unfortunate that we don't play the way investors play in the U, otherwise BIG should be at least US$5.00!  Hahaha.  Definitely a BUY as it is cheap...too cheap

 

This is an interesting observation.  I have researched current stock selling prices in the US, China and Singapore.  It seems that the US's current sales price for a stock is based on projected earnings - that may be realized 12 months in the future, China currently prices stock for projected earning that may be realizied  24 months in the future.  We in Singapore currently price a stock for earning that occurred 12 months in the past.   

hotokee      ( Date: 11-Mar-2010 07:38) Posted: Unfortunate that we don't play the way investors play in the U, otherwise BIG should be at least US$5.00!  Hahaha.  Definitely a BUY as it is cheap...too cheap. gregorsamsa      ( Date: 10-Mar-2010 23:17) Posted: the market trying to adjust the news that CCP is restricting pharmas from overcharging, so as to control healthcare cost at individual level... can go take a look at india. whereby they prefer generic drugs even though it violates patent laws in the state.  BIG may plunge further depending how it intends to tackle this challenge.. note that the newspaper ST cover C&O pharmeceutical

 

WiLL  yOu  STiLL  lOve  biOsensOr  tOmOrrOW ? 

 

I hope you are right topdog22. That would be a beautiful thought come true for all of us

 

Just a thought

Based on Nomua’s analysis and other articles: Boston Scientific’s bio-stable taxol (paclitaxel) coated stent has been surpassed by many newer entrants and is no longer “state of the art”. (Clinical trials proved BIG’s bio-erodable Biolimus coated stent was equivalent and in cases better than the JNJ – Cordis stent. The Cordis stent has been proven superior to Boston’s taxol stent.)   Further, the bio-erodable coating technology Boston acquired has proved useless.  Couple that with the following announcement:  One wonders whether this provides incentive for Boston to seek options that BIG could provide?

Boston Scientific suspends defibrillator sales-

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Medical device maker Boston Scientific said Monday it is suspending sales of its heart-shocking defibrillator implants after failing to alert regulators to changes in manufacturing of the best-selling devices. The company said it uncovered two production changes that were not cleared with the Food and Drug Administration. Medical device makers are required to alert regulators to significant changes in life-sustaining devices like defibrillators, which help correct irregular heart beats. The Natick, Mass.-based company said it will retrieve all the affected devices from suppliers and hospitals. It was unclear when the company would resume sales. The company stressed there are no safety concerns with the devices and patients can continue using them as normal. Monday's announcement was the latest in a string of problems for Boston Scientific's defibrillator business, which was acquired through the 2006 buyout of Guidant for a hefty $27 billion price tag. That same year the company received a rare companywide warning letter from the FDA, which temporarily halted approval of all new products. Over the next two years the company issued multiple safety recalls on its devices. Boston Scientific CEO Ray Elliott recently announced a major restructuring plan to trim operating costs. But Morgan Stanley analyst David Lewis said Monday's announcement "will weaken quality perception of a company that was on the brink of recovery." Shares of Boston Scientific plunged 98 cents, or 12.6 percent, to close at $6.80 Monday. Earlier shares traded at a 52-week low of $6.31. Defibrillators are surgically implanted in the upper chest, where they monitor the heart for deadly irregular heartbeats and use electrical jolts to shock it back to a normal rhythm. The devices make up 15 percent of total company revenue. Boston Scientific accounts for about a quarter of the global defibrillator market, and analysts had expected the company to expand that share with the help of updated products. However, Bernstein Research analyst Derrick Sung said in a research note that the sales suspension will likely deal a major blow to the company's brand. "We believe this latest 'implantable cardiac defibrillator' action could have tremendous negative impact to Boston Scientific's business both from an acute and longer-term perspective, with St. Jude Medical and Medtronic both benefiting," wrote Sung. Minneapolis-based Medtronic is the world's largest device maker and accounts for 45 percent of the defibrillator market, while St. Jude makes up 23 percent. Sung estimated Boston Scientific will lose $5 million per day during the sales suspension. The company said it is working with the FDA to resolve the situation as quickly as possible. Company officials acknowledged that the suspension would likely affect its financial earnings guidance for the year. Last month Boston Scientific projected 2010 earnings between 62 and 72 cents per share. Pacemakers and defibrillators, collectively termed "cardiac rhythm management" devices, are Boston Scientific's largest franchise. In the fourth quarter, the company reported $645 million in sales for the devices. AP Business Writer Tom Murphy in Indianapolis contributed to this story.

One wonders whether this provides incentive for Boston to seek options that BIG could provide?

 

Cut losses and give back winning from Captialmallasia.