Post Reply
401-420 of 689
to give a perspective on the Mr Choo article: (pls n00bs don't get excited and rush to open forex accounts; it takes technical skills to scalp forex). it may sound impossible but it isn't. It's just perhaps the singaporean employee mentality, that not to have a job = loser. When in reality, if you're skilled, you don't need to hold a regular job.
10,000 a month = 2.5k a week. ie, approx 200 pips on one standard lot. Slightly less actually.
So you just need 50 pips 4x a week, that is all. Given that most pairs move by 100-200 pips in a day, those in forex will agree it's manageable.
and i'll personally add that given current stock market climates, where the risk/reward is at best 1: 1, forex becomes much more attractive, where a risk/reward can be 2: 5, or higher. (eg, if you play the euro/yen pair, a reasonable 40 pip stop loss and 120 pip profit target is manageable on a daily basis).
methinks it all depends on the net position of the portfolio at the end of the day. Sometimes, if you have cash, buying in deep returns far better than cutting loss, especially if the stock is already at a bottom/near bottoming. It all depends on method, what you're prepared for. Can't go chasing after all the colourful balloons and neglect the one in your hand.
The final aim should determine everything.
generally, i agree though: an early stop loss is much better than a DCA.
--------------------------
So what is meant by the final aim: ie, basic money management:
1) How much do you need to make for retirement? The quantum sum and the no: of years.
2) Hence, how much must you make every year/month?
3) From there: how much risk do you need to take?
And from the above three questions, one outlines a portfolio: allocation, strategy, targeted returns, aims. Try it. For those of you intending to be serious investors for the long run: Don't go for "kopi money" and neglect the big picture. ie, never take unnecessary risk.
What is unnecessary? Easy: question for yourself, what is a need, what is a want?
Do you want that couple of 100s that can be potentially scalped daily? Sure. We could always do with more money.
But, in light of a longterm folio and longterm aims, do you need that couple of hundreds, do you need to take that additional risk, such that you miss the chance of buying your longterm counter, being low in cash and stuck in too many impulsive 'punts'? Because really, how many retailers out there are excellent, consistent day traders?
Be realistic, be honest.
The answer to the final two questions above determines whether or not you take the plunge each and every time.
Livermore ( Date: 12-Sep-2008 12:37) Posted:
|
i passed by a bank yesterday. they give computer terminals for people to watch their markets. looking at the group of old retirees staring at the screen, with their notebooks beside them, can only say that i felt sorry for them. all clutching at losses.
and the irksome thing is this: yes, it's partly their fault, greed for getting into "hot" stocks. but can one blame a child for reaching out for a sweet, when he's not been told that there are wolves around?
just thinking: if they knew the truth of the market place, isn't that better.
But i guess. that's the pecking order of the market place. Retailers are bottom-feeders. the BBs need to keep them dumb, keep them stupid. Because only then can they win.
To follow the trend is to follow the global flow of money. Just speaking for Asian equities alone now:
So Freddie and Fannie are bought and sold out. Lehman has collapsed. Oil and gold are collapsing. What are we to make of all this?
In the backrooms of power, kingmakers decide where the money will go. There are princelings, there are kings, and then there are kingmakers. Who ultimately controls and possesses the most money?
The near-sudden collapse of the Euro, the collapse of oil and gold are no coincidence. I've been watching it since July. Federal intervention has its marks all over. And only the wilest of the banking institutions managed to ride with the trend.
Quite simply it is this: governments are kingmakers. the foreign BBs--hedge funds and legit banks--are kings. the local BBs are princelings.
To shore up the all important US economy, it is necessary that the USD strengthens, it is necessary that oil and gold goes down. So government acts against the BBs. Where will oil fall to? As i posted earlier before: Hedge funds have taken massive longs on commodities, to make up for subprime losses. What they did not count on was government selling them out. When--at its peak--96% of funds have taken longs, if you have the funds, and need to raise funds badly, what do you do? You short down the market.
The critical point is oil at 100. Because most funds have put stop losses at 95-98. So what the kingmaker needs to do: short oil down to below US$95.
This will cause massive unwinding of positions by the hedge funds.
And the ball passes. So the kingmakers have made their money. The kings hold losses. What will they do?
Asia is a free market. Two choices: short, or long.
The easiest way for kings to make money is to pass the buck onto princelings. So what you can likely expect in the local market in the coming two months: a further tanking, alternatively, a very, very rapid recovery, that then peters out.
Which way it goes will be determined by the volume. if more local people are keen to sell, you can expect a ramp up. If more local people are keen to buy, you can expect a selldown.
What i am sure of is this: if it is a ramp, most retailers will miss it. So what retailers, as bottom feeders, need to make sure of: do not get caught out by the princelings.
Because the one rule in trading is this: Never be left holding the baby.
And yes, crazy_fave. There is money in one place: forex. Stocks do not give an adequate risk/reward ratio any longer. At best you get a 1: 1 risk/reward ratio. So the simple choice is to stay out, wait for long term. The way if, you bought in 2004, and sold in 2006-7, you'd be a winner no matter what you bought. Keep eyes on the longterm goal, and ignore the rest of the sound and fury, opinions that you *should* do this, or *should* do that. What matters is longterm: what is your net position.
crazy_fave ( Date: 12-Sep-2008 12:02) Posted:
|
Hahaha... maybe it's better if you take him as your sifu...
I am happy with my own sifus... hehehe... 
Anyway, this Mr Choo is obviously a more polished guy than just any cashier...
iPunter ( Date: 12-Sep-2008 16:00) Posted:
|
wah, thats amazing. can hv abalone n sharkfin soup daily. can order the 9.03m Bugatti Veyron Fbg par Herms e s sport car liao. now car show at Shanghai.
AK, though retired, but no match liao. just carrying on day dreaming loh.
One need not have the full amount to start retiring...
If one waits to have the full amount then start retiring, one may only retire for a very short time.
But in Mr Choo's case, once he has made suffiicient seed money, he can start retiring while in the meantime continue to relax and make money in his hobby of forex playing (since he is very good at it).
To retire at age 26,one needs S$5 million.
bear in mind that he or she can probably live up to 80 years old.So he or she need to cater for another 54 years.
Livermore ( Date: 12-Sep-2008 12:25) Posted:
|
The story of Mr. Choo is very inspiring to all.
I should think Mr. Choo should stick to what he is good at, namely forex play, rather than going into business ventures. The basic idea of all businesses is to make money.
With the money good he continues to make in the market, he can plan how to live his to the most. If one has a business, one still has to slog and have not much time to do any real living.
But Mr. Choo has shown us he can do it... 
ed88ks ( Date: 12-Sep-2008 10:19) Posted:
|
"I want to make enough money to retire by 26"
Choo Koon Lip turned his back on his salaried job.
Fri, Sep 12, 2008
The New Paper
By Desmond Ng
He was jobless, broke and demoralised. To make things worse, he
faced endless criticism from friends and relatives about his unemployed
status
It came to a point when Mr Choo Koon Lip decided that he had had enough.
In September last year, he boldly declared in his blog that he would
make enough money to retire in a year's time, by the time he was 26.
Said Mr Choo: 'It was a bold statement to make, but my intention was
to let people know that I could live comfortably without any financial
worries. I think I have achieved that.'
Silenced critics
Mr Choo left his full-time job as an advertising sales manager at a
publishing firm in April last year. He was then drawing a monthly
salary of about $2,800.
Since then, he has not looked for another job, but instead has been trading in the foreign exchange market.
In the last year, Mr Choo has made a tidy profit of over $100,000, or an average of $10,000 a month.
Not bad for someone who was considered a deadbeat by his peers.
Said Mr Choo: 'It was a message to my peers that I could survive
without holding on a full-time job and taking the traditional route of
being a salaried worker.
'When I quit my job, I faced a lot of scrutiny from friends and
relatives who thought I was a slacker for not looking for a new job. A
friend commented that I was not really working and not taking care of
my career. I got angry and started the blog. I felt like an outcast
then.'
The National University of Singapore (NUS) graduate, who has a
degree in Applied Mathematics, has always preferred the road less
travelled.
His parents wanted him to be a maths teacher, or work in a bank, but he would have none of that.
He first started options trading in 2004, as a first-year student at
NUS. But he lost $25,000 within two months. Undeterred, he pressed on
and recovered his losses.
A year later, he started his own publishing firm, Pixie Media, which produced the magazine Snag in September 2005.
But it bombed about a year later in December 2006, due to poor circulation and advertising, incurring a debt of over $70,000.
It was a big blow to Mr Choo.
'I had to borrow money from my younger brother. It was quite
pathetic and I also had to ask him to treat me to lunch from time to
time,' he said.
Mr Choo, who graduated in June 2006, then took on a full-time job in
February last year as an advertising sales manager but left after two
months.
'I went to see a new $1.3 million condo in town. I was calculating
the initial deposit of about $260,000 and realised that it would take
me a very long time to save that kind of money.
'After realising that there is an income ceiling as a salaried worker, I decided to call it quits,' he said.
Humble background
He has been jobless since last April.
Mr Choo, who is single, currently lives in a three-room HDB flat in West Coast with his parents.
His father, 54, is a welder while his mother, 47, is a factory
operator. His 23-year-old brother is a business undergraduate at the
Singapore Management University (SMU) who's also runs his own online
sea shells business.
Mr Choo then turned to forex trading. He also started a trading academy in May this year to teach investment strategies.
His lessons are conducted both online and in a serviced office, but he was quick to add that there are risks.
Mr Choo's mother, Madam Yong Siew Lan, said she always had faith in her son.
She said: 'He has always been driven since young. I wanted him to be a teacher but he has his own path to follow.'
This article was first published in The New Paper on September 10, 2008.
Livermore... :)
What you said is what I call wise words of wisdom...
Support levels as per request:
SPC: 4.46 (it's about there now), 4.10, then 3.65.
Ezra: 1.34, 1.15, 0.85, 0.6
Note that SPC is very closely related to crude oil plays. And crude is currently a very dirty game: the big hedge funds and banks who lost money plowed massively and leveraged into long commods, but fed intervention is keeping oil down (so as to raise dollar and hence the US economy: because the DJIA historically never goes down in an election year). So oil at 100 is a critical level for the funds. If they unwind, you can expect oil at 80 and hence, SPC will go down. Very brutal game; i've been following it on another global forum i go to.
Note not time to buy them yet. After the US elections, when they hand everything over, that is likely when they'll let it go to the pits.
trader88, good post. :) yea, for me, S/R levels are just that, suggestions.
ipunter: we all have our own ways of playing. it's all about what's sufficient, and what's proper money management for oneself. I don't use CFD because i have margin (so theoretically, you double/triple your plays each time), and i also play warrants. puts and calls. So what's the need to take on additional risk by going short?
yea, a lot may say i'm stupid for not taking advantage of the chance. but then, it goes back to the basics: right money management, right risk management.
Do I need to take additional risk? No. Hence, do i take it? No. The long term goal must always be kept in perspective: What is your own aim, 30, 40 years down? How much do you need to make a month, a year then?
Back calculations. you do not give up longterm goals for shortterm gains.
Simple as that. If one swings to what others say, one can only be a puppet.
And i guess, rather than trading tips and whatnots, this is the principle that i should hope n00bs can learn til it becomes second nature. Find something that works for you, stick with it.
Does ipunter make sense? Sure. As do livermore, and the rest. They are all different trading systems, different personalities. One needs to find what works for them, and ignore the rest as white noise.
cheers!