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GoldenAgr: BUY - TP $0.82 - OSK-DMG
From CIMB
The good and bad news from Jan palm oil stats
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks eased by 1.9% in Jan to 2.58m tonnes, which is below our forecast of 2.59m but above the consensus estimate of 2.55m tonnes. The good news is stocks are starting to retreat but the report also shows sustained strong growth in output. Figure 1: CPO stock and price levels |
400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Stock (LHS) CPO price (RHS) ('000 tonnes) (US$ /tonne)
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SOURCES: CIMB, MPOB
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We believe palm oil output growth could remain strong in the next few months on a yoy basis due to the more favourable weather over the past 12 months. This means CPO price will need to stay competitive against other edible oils to ensure palm oil stocks remain at a manageable level. We maintain our CPO price forecasts and Neutral call on the regional plantation sector. We continue to prefer Singapore planters such as Wilmar, Golden Agri and Indofood Agri Resources.
What Happened
Palm oil stocks in Malaysia fell for the first time in six months by 1.9% mom to 2.58m tonnes at end-Jan. The stockpile is below our forecast but slightly above the consensus median estimate of 2.55m. The mom decline in production was in line with our expectation but the exports were above our estimate.
What We Think
We are positive on the lower stockpile and the 18% rise in palm oil exports in the first 10 days of Feb against the same period in Jan, as reported by Intertek. This suggests that the attractive pricing of CPO has been effective in generating additional demand for CPO. However, these positives are tempered by strong palm oil production (+24% yoy) in Jan. This may put a lid on the recent rise in spot CPO prices (+7%) to RM2,379 per tonne, which we believe has priced in the lower stockpile for Jan. We project end-Feb 13 stocks to fall by 5% to 2.49m tonnes as we expect exports to offset output.
What You Should Do
We continue to advocate buying Wilmar (a beneficiary of high palm oil stocks) as well as Golden Agri and Indofood Agri as a proxy for the potential recovery in CPO prices.
Crude Palm Oil Ends Down Easing Stockpiles Support
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended lower Wednesday, pressured by an improved weather outlook for rival soy crops in South America.
The benchmark April contract at Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 2.2% lower at 2,504 ringgit a metric ton after moving in a MYR2,504-MYR2,558 range.
Losses in CBOT soyoil due to improving South American crop prospects dragged values lower, market participants said, although they noted that easing palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world's no. 2 producer, and improving export demand provided some underlying support.
CBOT March soyoil is down 0.5% at 50.83 cents a pound in screen trade.
Data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed that stockpiles at the end of January eased 1.9% to 2.58 million tons, well below December's all-time record of 2.63 million tons. It also said CPO production in January fell 10% on month to 1.60 million tons.
" Improving export demand in February and expectations for another low production month could further reduce stockpiles to 2.50 million tons [by the end of February]," a trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based foreign commodities brokerage said.
On Saturday, cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said palm oil shipments in the first 10 days of February from Malaysia rose 18% to 440,830 tons. Another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., earlier said outbound sales for the same period surged 25% to 429,070 tons.
" Vessel line-up [at Malaysian ports] is decent," a shipping executive in Kuala Lumpur said, tipping overall exports in February to be higher thanks to increased shipments to major palm oil consuming countries China and India.
Trading volumes, however, were subdued as many investors and refiners are still away from their desks after the extended Lunar New Year weekend.
A total of 18,873 lots were traded compared with the usual 25,000-30,000 lots. Volume was 18,142 lots Friday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Open interest on the BMD was 175,403 lots versus 177,268 lots Friday.
In the cash market, refined palm olein for March shipment was offered around $855/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based physical market broker.
Is it a good time to load at this level?
Peter_Pan ( Date: 13-Feb-2013 19:16) Posted:
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Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange edged up Friday, as optimism over a recovery in export demand lent support.
The benchmark April contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 0.4% higher at 2,560 ringgits a metric ton after moving in a choppy MYR2,532-MYR2,562 range.
Palm oil prices were mostly higher the past few sessions due to optimism that export demand could go up for the tropical oil used in a wide variety of consumer products ranging from biscuits to chocolates and cooking oil.
i'm still holding on to this.. as i believe there's upside to this
will buy more if price drops below 63
gd luck dyodd
VEGOILS-Palm oil falls to 2-week low in thin trade export data eyed
* Jan. palm oil stocks down 1.9 pct at 2.58 mln tonnes -
MPOB
* Palm oil to drop to 2,510 ringgit - technicals
(Updates prices, adds details)
By Anuradha Raghu
KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
fell to a two-week low on Wednesday in light trade after a long
holiday weekend, with investors cautious about trading actively
ahead of industry data.
Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, released during the
afternoon break, showed that end-stocks in Malaysia, the world's
No. 2 producer, had inched down 1.9 percent to 2.58 million
tonnes in January. That was off recent record levels but missed
expectations of a deeper fall. [ID:nK7E8KJ00P]
Investors were also awaiting palm oil export data from cargo
surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance later on Wednesday.
[PALM/SGS]
On Saturday, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
Malaysia's shipments had surged 18 percent in the first ten days
of February compared with a month earlier, but traders said
export volumes still needed to rise to " decent" levels.
[PALM/ITS]
" Exports in the last five days of January showed an average
of 50,000 tonnes shipped per day, which is good. We were
expecting that to carry on in February, but obviously that is
not the case," said a trader with a foreign commodities
brokerage in Malaysia.
" It will need to pick up in the coming days of February. We
are at very high stocks here, so if that picks up then things
will look a bit more rosy."
The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia
Derivatives Exchange fell to 2,506 ringgit ($809) per tonne, the
lowest level since Jan. 30, before settling at 2,522 ringgit
($814) per tonne by the midday break, 1.5 percent lower than
Friday's close.
Total traded volumes were thin at 8,553 lots of 25 tonnes
each, compared with the average 12,500 tonnes, with many
investors still on holiday.
Financial markets in Malaysia were closed on Monday and
Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holidays while markets in China,
the world's No. 2 edible oil importer, remain closed for the
rest of the week.
Technical analysis showed palm oil may drop to 2,510 ringgit
per tonne as a correction from the Jan. 31 high of 2,593 ringgit
has not finished, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
[ID:nL4N0BD0RV]
Brent crude steadied on Wednesday, holding just below a
nine-month high near $119 per barrel on forecasts for
faster-than-expected growth in global oil demand this year, but
easing tensions in Iran subdued prices. [O/R]
In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for March
delivery fell 0.1 percent in early Asian trade. The
Dalian Commodity Exchange will resume trading on Monday.
Sold @ 0.64
DMG buy call would definitely offer support to GAR current price... and in time to come more upside
GAR has been holding up well at 63c support..
gd luck dyodd
yay!! go plantation go!!! :)
GoldenAgr: BUY - TP $0.82 - OSK-DMG
Hehehehe! please support AGRI! you will not regret it. Go go go! ^.^
Peter_Pan ( Date: 07-Feb-2013 14:06) Posted:
07-02-2013 13:54:48
VEGOILS-Palm oil edges up, stocks seen coming off record highs
* Palm oil stocks likely ease 2.9 pct to 2.55 mln t in Jan
-poll
* Palm oil to drop to 2,510 ringgit -technicals
* Prices rangebound between 2,530-2,566 ringgit
(Updates prices, adds detail)
By Chew Yee Kiat
SINGAPORE, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
edged up on Thursday as investors expect a marginal drop in
January stocks, although cautious sentiment ahead of the
upcoming long holiday capped gains.
Lower production likely helped Malaysian palm oil stocks to
ease in January from a record-high in the previous month, a
Reuters survey of five plantation companies showed on Thursday.
[PALM/POLL]
Inventory level most likely dropped 2.9 percent to 2.55
million tonnes in January from December's all-time high, the
first decline since last June, according to the survey.
A stronger export demand seen during the last week of
January may have helped ease stocks and the demand trend could
stay given palm oil's attractive discount to soybean oil and as
worries eased over China's stricter quality regulation.
" Stocks are expected to drop due to exports picking up
towards end-January," said a dealer with a foreign commodities
brokerage in Malaysia.
By the midday break, the benchmark April contract
on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 0.8
percent to 2,566 ringgit ($829) per tonne. Prices were
rangebound between 2,530 and 2,566 ringgit.
Total traded volumes stood at 15,163 lots of 25 tonnes each,
slightly higher than the average 12,500 tonnes.
Technical analysis shows palm oil is expected to fall to
2,510 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by its wave pattern and a
Fibonacci retracement analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang
Tao. [ID:nL4N0B70XU]
The Malaysian financial markets will be closed next Monday
and Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday. Industry regulator
the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release January inventory and
output data after the market resumes trading on Wednesday.
Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe
Generale de Surveillance will issue export data for Feb. 1-10
also on Wednesday. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]
The market will be looking for trading direction from this
Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly supply and
demand reports, which may be bullish for palm oil due to a
possibly tighter soybean stocks.
In other markets, Brent crude was steady in a tight range
under $117 per barrel on Thursday as traders waited for the
outcome of a European Central Bank meeting and China trade data
for more evidence the global oil demand outlook was improving.
[O/R]
In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for March
delivery eased 0.3 percent in early Asian trade. The most
active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian
Commodity Exchange hit a one-week low.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0528 GMT
|
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07-02-2013 13:54:48
VEGOILS-Palm oil edges up, stocks seen coming off record highs
* Palm oil stocks likely ease 2.9 pct to 2.55 mln t in Jan
-poll
* Palm oil to drop to 2,510 ringgit -technicals
* Prices rangebound between 2,530-2,566 ringgit
(Updates prices, adds detail)
By Chew Yee Kiat
SINGAPORE, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
edged up on Thursday as investors expect a marginal drop in
January stocks, although cautious sentiment ahead of the
upcoming long holiday capped gains.
Lower production likely helped Malaysian palm oil stocks to
ease in January from a record-high in the previous month, a
Reuters survey of five plantation companies showed on Thursday.
[PALM/POLL]
Inventory level most likely dropped 2.9 percent to 2.55
million tonnes in January from December's all-time high, the
first decline since last June, according to the survey.
A stronger export demand seen during the last week of
January may have helped ease stocks and the demand trend could
stay given palm oil's attractive discount to soybean oil and as
worries eased over China's stricter quality regulation.
" Stocks are expected to drop due to exports picking up
towards end-January," said a dealer with a foreign commodities
brokerage in Malaysia.
By the midday break, the benchmark April contract
on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 0.8
percent to 2,566 ringgit ($829) per tonne. Prices were
rangebound between 2,530 and 2,566 ringgit.
Total traded volumes stood at 15,163 lots of 25 tonnes each,
slightly higher than the average 12,500 tonnes.
Technical analysis shows palm oil is expected to fall to
2,510 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by its wave pattern and a
Fibonacci retracement analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang
Tao. [ID:nL4N0B70XU]
The Malaysian financial markets will be closed next Monday
and Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday. Industry regulator
the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release January inventory and
output data after the market resumes trading on Wednesday.
Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe
Generale de Surveillance will issue export data for Feb. 1-10
also on Wednesday. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]
The market will be looking for trading direction from this
Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly supply and
demand reports, which may be bullish for palm oil due to a
possibly tighter soybean stocks.
In other markets, Brent crude was steady in a tight range
under $117 per barrel on Thursday as traders waited for the
outcome of a European Central Bank meeting and China trade data
for more evidence the global oil demand outlook was improving.
[O/R]
In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for March
delivery eased 0.3 percent in early Asian trade. The most
active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian
Commodity Exchange hit a one-week low.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0528 GMT
managed to sustain support levels despite the sell off yesterday..
looking gd for the upside..
gd luck dyodd
