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" Its the same reason why people will continue to pay high prices for property in
Not wrong with the above statement if there are no other alternatives. First, fish food is not a must on every table everyday. There are alternatives as food. Second, there are aquaculture sea and freshwater fish (e.g those rear in ponds) as an alternative. " Globally, aquaculture supplies more that 50 percent of all seafood produced for human consumption – that percentage has been and will continue to rise. Conventional wisdom holds that traditional fisheries are producing near their maximum capacity and that future increases in seafood production must come largely from aquaculture." When sea fishing getting more expensive because of shortage in supply, aquaculture fishing will become more viable. Any additional investments to acquire more seafishing ground will only benefit the aquaculture fishing..
http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/aquaculture/faqs/faq_aq_101.html
SFP launches fishmeal-focused FIP in Asia ....
...why is the need to launch this project.... supply / demand issue...??..
...last done: $0.375...
To me I take the view that simple economics will prevail. The report mentioned fishmeal protein makes the best tasting fish. As global demand for fish increases, especially from China, the prices of raw materials to produce fish will also increase, aka fishmeal. And since the supply in Peru is greatly diminished as they allow the resource to replenish itself, prices will only increase.
Its the same reason why people will continue to pay high prices for property in Singapore, land is a finite resource, as it becomes less and less, prices will skyrocket. Same as in fish supplies and its ancillary industries. I suppose as a trade this counter is not attractive, but as an investment it has its merits. Provided of course the company doesn't self combust from too much M & A. I see Pacific Andes making a lot of acquisition moves as well so I hope they do not overextend their credit and manage their core business well.
This report is a shock. Peru's export of fishmeal dropped 70% this year..
http://global.chinafeedonline.com/global/info/news/news_file/Hammersmith_28_13.pdf
and the price of fishmeal in china dropped across the board
http://www.chinafeedonline.com/news/817741.html
Copeinca has been bleeding all the year. This is the first quarter result and was a disaster. For what reason one may ask for acquring such company if not because of the fishing right..
" Fishmeal and fish oil stocks at January 1st 2013 were 7,848 MT, compared to 76,829 MT as of January 1st 2012.
During the first quarter of 2013, average revenue per ton was USD 1,957/MT up from USD 1,274/MT in the same period of 2012.
Revenues for the first quarter of 2013 were USD 36 million (18,429 MT) down from USD 99 million (77,734 MT) in the first quarter of 2012 due to lower inventory levels of fishmeal and fish oil from the second fishing season of the prior year as a result of significantly reduced volumes.
5,942 MT of mackerel and jack mackerel were caught during the first quarter of 2013, generating revenues amounting to USD 3 million, representing approximately 12% of the quota allocated by Peruvian authorities.
CAPEX approved was USD 14 million, out of which USD 4.4 million were executed during Q1`13.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/copeinca-asa-presents-first-quarter-060204344.html "
Sorry.. somehow stockjunction does like the url.. please use google to search using the following work to paste
" Bond Downgrade Potential In Emerging And Developed Markets" then use search or find to get " China Fish"
The China Fish's financial data in Yahoo is shown here
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=B0Z.SI
Not sure why the S& P url does not work.. try this
http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?articleType=HTML& assetID=1245347802664
China Fish has 3 downgrades from the Rrating Agencies, the Moody, the Fitch and the Standards and Poor.. they all give negative ratings. In Fitch's latest rating revision to negative outlook, it mentioned that China Fish would result a net debt/EBITDA to above 3.0x after acquiring Copeinca.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/04/fitch-revises-china-fisherys-outlook-to-idUSFit66263020130704
Moody did not further downgrade because it has just downgraded to negative outlook in Sept 2012 even before China Fishery tossed the idea of aquiring Copeinca. However, Moody said China Fish's net debt/EBITDA would go above 4.0x
http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-China-Fisherys-to-B1-outlook-negative--PR_255290
Standards and Poor has long ago downgraded China Fish to negative outlook and has no record of upgrading
http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?articleType=HTML& assetID=1245347802664 (use search)
Yahoo has given EBITDA as $140m vs Total Debt of 640m based on Financial report Mar 2013.. this will give an debt/EBITDA around 4.57.. this is even before China Fish's second proposal to acquire Copeinca.
Here are some Q& A for your consideration
1) Is China Fish heavily in debt?
According to Financial guideline, debt/EBITDA ratios higher than 4 or 5 would normally set off alarms because they indicate that a company is likely to face difficulties in handling its debt burden, and thus is less likely to be able to raise additional loans required to grow and expand the business (somehow, they got the loan to acquire Copeinca.. must be of higher interest). Acquiring Copeinca would only add on further debt burdens which is why Fitch has its latest downgrade.
2) Why would China Fish wanted to acquire Copeinca?
Copeinca is in fishmeal business and is losing money for sometime. One possible reason is China Fish is eyeing for the fishing right in
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fishing_industry_in_China
3) Would China Fish's price rise after acquiring Copeinca?
In view of the high debt ratio, it is not actually a blessing for China Fish to acquire Copeinca. It would not be worth the while if it is not because of acquiring more fishing ground. We know that the deal with Copeinca is already a done deal, rightfully speaking, the recent price hike should have continue and risen fast when Copeinca gave its willingness to accept the offer last week.
4) Would not the price rise fast due to small market float?
Rightfully speaking, the price should always be very violatile when there is little market float. Like Sakari and if the BBs are interested, the price should rise very fast when BB cummulates but when market begins to dry up, the BBs will have to sell to cummulate more. This phenomenal did not exist in China Fish. Not only the daily trading is low, there is a complete absent of BBs that sells more than 50K lots.
5) Would China Fish head up or down?
Technically speaking, China Fish is a reasonably good stock if not because of its high debt ratio. It has been given decent dividend with a yield around 5% and has a low PE of around 2.0. Its EPS yield wasn't that good around 0.5% but typical among pennies. NAV is around $0.93 which is about 3 times of present price.
With the recent price hike, this share looked as if it wanted to take off however, the trade volume were low even during the recent price hike. The dismay performance last few sessions has changed the prospective. The present chart looks like China Fish could head down because of the following reasons:
1) The price touch the upper channel line unless it can break it with higher trading volume, it is likely to head down
2) The stock is over bought with Stochastic touching the top and ready to decent
3) RSI is showing diminishing strength
4) +DI is about to cut under -DI, showing that the market is ready for a sell off
http://tinypic.com/r/1213epz/5
Recommendation
It is possible that the condition may change quickly under light trading condition. However, it is not a stock to pick until the price has broken the upper channel line with higher than normal volume.
This is the latest news..
Will be Good for short-mid term..
flyfox ( Date: 18-Jul-2013 11:34) Posted:
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newbie888 ( Date: 18-Jul-2013 00:24) Posted:
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Just to recall... (in SGX announcement dated 28 Jan 13)...
" China Fish together with Pacific Andes Resources Development Limited and Pacific Andes International Holdings Limited have previously announced on 5 Dec 12 that the Group was in discussions with Russian Sea Catching LLC
(RSC) of the Russian Federation in respect of exploring various opportunities of possible future cooperation with RSC. It was disclosed at the AGM that the Group is unlikely to invest in more than a minority stake and may consider investing if, amongst other things, the future cooperation could assist in broadening the benefits currently enjoyed by the Group in Russia. It was also disclosed that negotiations are still on-going and an announcement will be made if an agreement is reached."
< for info... possible future happenings...>
if you go to the post dated 26th Feb
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CFGL-LoanAnnc_704_728.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=232885
Company.
It's the same thing..
So i was thinking that it's been there for long time...
newbie888 ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 23:09) Posted:
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flyfox ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 17:55) Posted:
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halleluyah ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 13:48) Posted:
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newbie888 ( Date: 12-Jul-2013 23:29) Posted:
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