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From UOBKH 26 Mar 2013
Maintain BUY with a target price of S$0.65, pegged at a 21.8% discount to our RNAV of S$0.83/share, in line with the average discount for Chinese developers under our coverage.
Investment Highlights
· Sell-down unwarranted due to Ying Li’s limited exposure to residential properties. Ying Li’s share price has declined 9% after China announced several cooling measures for its residential property sector. These measures include higher downpayment, increase in residential land supply and accelerated development of social housing. The company’s current portfolio of developing properties comprises less than 15% in residential properties (mainly International Plaza, where more than 95% is sold in all the four phases) the policy risk to Ying Li is considered low.
· New CEO to raise the profile of Ying Li. We are excited about the company’s recent appointment of Mr Ko Kheng Hwa as Group CEO. Mr Ko was previously the CEO of Singbridge International Singapore Pte Ltd, which is wholly-owned by Temasek Holdings and invests in and master-develops large-scale integrated townships in China. Currently, he remains as the Senior Advisor of Singbridge Corporate Pte Ltd, advising the company on the Guangzhou Knowledge City and the Tianjin Eco-city projects. With such deep experience in China, we believe Mr Ko can assist Ying Li to pursue new opportunities in China perhaps out of Chongqing.
· We expect share price to be driven by strong earnings. Ying Li will recognise the entire sales proceeds from International Plaza and book in the profits this year. Currently, more than 96% of all four phases have been sold with pre-sales proceeds of Rmb914m as of 31 Dec 12. With the possible sale of more office units in Ying Li International Financial Centre, we expect the company to record revenue of Rmb1,475m and core earnings of Rmb309m excluding revaluation gains.
· Spin-off of the retail malls into a REIT to recycle capital. Ying Li has plans to transfer its retail malls into a trust vehicle for listing to monetise the assets and recycle the capital. Management believes in the long-term growth prospect of Chongqing and sees several opportunities in securing good land parcels for commercial property developments.
· RNAV surprises will come from
Wuyi Rd project and San Ya Wan phase 2. We have yet to receive the breakdown in the type of properties in
Wuyi Rd project from management. As a recap, Ying Li bought a plot of land adjacent to their
Wuyi Rd project in Dec 11 and boosted the project GFA from 160,000 sqm to 240,000 sqm. Depending on the type of properties in the project configuration, Ying Li may be able to build a greater portion of higher value retail component. Similarly for San Ya Wan, pending final approval from local authorities, the plot ratio for the entire project (Phase 1, 1A and 2) may increase from 1.5x to 1.9x. This will lift the undeveloped phase 2 plot ratio to 3x from 1.5x previously.
北 京 市 将 在 3月 31日 前 如 期 出 台 楼 市 调 控 细 则 。 从 目 前 获 得 的 信 息 来 看 ， 北 京 细 则 将 有 效 地 控 制 投 资 性 购 房 ， 同 时 对 刚 性 改 善 需 求 给 予 适 当 保 护 。 权 威 人 士 透 露 ， 北 京 细 则 有 三 大 动 作 。 首 先 ， 购 买 二 套 房 的 信 贷 门 槛 进 一 步 提 高 。 其 次 ， 界 定 二 手 房 交 易 环 节 个 人 所 得 税 征 收 办 法 。 出 售 五 年 以 上 唯 一 家 庭 住 房 ， 将 免 征 个 人 所 得 税 ； 五 年 内 出 售 家 庭 唯 一 住 房 ， 按 不 同 年 限 ， 分 级 制 定 税 基 。 非 唯 一 住 房 ， 将 严 格 按 照 交 易 差 额 的 20%征 收 个 税 。 第 三 ， 北 京 将 进 一 步 收 紧 户 籍 人 口 的 购 房 资 格 。
Seems not as stringent as initially expected.
Ya this bet is dangerous. Any noise from e gov gone case.
iPunter ( Date: 22-Mar-2013 09:04) Posted:
In trading stocks, one need not have any guts. In a casino, would one need any guts to bet?
As long as one knows that one is betting, the question of guts does not arise at all...
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In trading stocks, one need not have any guts. In a casino, would one need any guts to bet?
As long as one knows that one is betting, the question of guts does not arise at all...
I wanna be brave too but i dun have e guts .
cheongsl ( Date: 22-Mar-2013 06:59) Posted:
I have vest again, but suggest to trade with cautious.
Seems like the 20% income tax does not hinder the buyer (still need further observation, if it does not hinder, it will accelerate the price, as seller will incorporate the tax into the sell price to sell to the buyer, if the resale price is increasing, the new housing should also be growing). But the detail of the property control still have not out yet, the implementation of the policy level is still unknown. And this counter not mainly on residential property and also on commercial property, thus the risk is further diversify. Have vest less in yanlord, as it mainly on residential property.
But in the long run the property market should still be growing, as the government have further loosen the single child policy, but the detail of implementation is still unknow, previously is both parents are single child are allow to have additional child, subsequently one of the parent are single child are allow to have additional child. Maybe this time all are allow to have two children or many be more (just a wild gueese), like singapore currently is encouraging more children. |
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I have vest again, but suggest to trade with cautious.
Seems like the 20% income tax does not hinder the buyer (still need further observation, if it does not hinder, it will accelerate the price, as seller will incorporate the tax into the sell price to sell to the buyer, if the resale price is increasing, the new housing should also be growing). But the detail of the property control still have not out yet, the implementation of the policy level is still unknown. And this counter not mainly on residential property and also on commercial property, thus the risk is further diversify. Have vest less in yanlord, as it mainly on residential property.
But in the long run the property market should still be growing, as the government have further loosen the single child policy, but the detail of implementation is still unknow, previously is both parents are single child are allow to have additional child, subsequently one of the parent are single child are allow to have additional child. Maybe this time all are allow to have two children or many be more (just a wild gueese), like singapore currently is encouraging more children.
Seems like getting support at 100MA, and volume are picking up, CCI, stochastic, MACD all show reversing.
By doing that, your average price would have been .
42... Which is not bad...
jamesng ( Date: 10-Mar-2013 21:56) Posted:
| I am thinking of getting more now......not decided yet.....but if drop to 40 cents, I will double my holding |
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I am thinking of getting more now......not decided yet.....but if drop to 40 cents, I will double my holding
Good to buy, but better to buy it low...
I waited for
.40, but still some way to go (maybe one more spurt down)...
jamesng ( Date: 09-Mar-2013 12:13) Posted:
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https://brokeragesreport.googlegroups.co...FIQ& part=4
According to this report, revenue and profit would be much higher in 2013, 2014 and 2015....hope so and the share price would climb...
This one is good, i think play would be back to strong cap like this one , after penny play is dead.
i was wondering on the sudden boom in transactions of properties. maybe these are smarter people. transfer at high price now later will not have to be tax when actual sell as there are no profit made base on current transacted price.
Lucky I sold mine at .520, after reading the wrong news !
Patkeane ( Date: 21-Feb-2013 11:28) Posted:
| china implement another round of property cooling measure i read from news wei sin dunno will it effect the price of ying li and that is why yanlord keeps dropping ....... |
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Yes, when their time is ripe, stocks can drop like sheet... Stocks are definitely not your friends...
srichipan ( Date: 06-Mar-2013 17:26) Posted:
Shocked to see both drop so much. Lucky I sold early. Sold both last week after some warnings from fellow forumer about china property cooling.
srichipan ( Date: 20-Feb-2013 15:06) Posted:
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Vested both Ying li and wei ye. China property wave.
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Shocked to see both drop so much. Lucky I sold early. Sold both last week after some warnings from fellow forumer about china property cooling.
srichipan ( Date: 20-Feb-2013 15:06) Posted:
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Vested both Ying li and wei ye. China property wave.
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There should be more meat to drop...
pasttime ( Date: 06-Mar-2013 17:18) Posted:
sina reported that transactions of secondary market at some places goes up 10x more to beat the tax. looks like agent huat huat first. then eat porridge later. some buyer are worry that the increased tax will added to the selling price.
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Good trading, and good plan, sifu...
Bopanha ( Date: 06-Mar-2013 17:01) Posted:
When it started to move up and then showed no strength sustaining, I sold off all my Yingli at 50 cents as it came down. Now it is fairly cheap, but still not the right time to enter. I will re-enter around 36 to 38 cents.
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sina reported that transactions of secondary market at some places goes up 10x more to beat the tax. looks like agent huat huat first. then eat porridge later. some buyer are worry that the increased tax will added to the selling price.
