
I hope TSMC's 85% quarterly profit will bring some sunshine on CSM in the next few days after the market digests TSMC report ...
Thanks for your direct comments, Nostradmus .... well noted.
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TAIPEI, July 27 (Reuters) - TSMC (2330.TW: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's top made-to-order chip maker, posted a better-than-expected 85 percent jump in quarterly profit as new consumer products spurred demand for chips, but analysts warned the industry was facing a near-term supply glut.
After a one-year recovery, some clients who had been too optimistic on demand for consumer gadgets are clearing out inventories, casting a shadow on TSMC's business in the coming months, analysts say.
"Driven primarily by stronger demand from our customers in the communications and consumer segments, our second quarter business rose 5.5 percent sequentially amid weaker demand from our customers in the computer segment," TSMC Chief Financial Officer Lora Ho told an investor conference.
Third-quarter sales would be between T$79 billion and T$82 billion, against T$82.12 billion in the second quarter, the company said, while capital expenditure for 2006 would remain unchanged from an original estimate of US$2.6 billion to US$2.8 billion.
Net profit at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) (TSM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) totaled T$34.0 billion (US$1.04 billion) for the quarter ended June, up from T$18.37 billion a year ago and higher than T$32.61 billion in the first quarter.
Ten analysts surveyed by Reuters Estimates had expected TSMC to earn T$32.25 billion in the second quarter.
July 27 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest maker of customized chips, reported a record profit in the second quarter on rising demand for consumer electronics such as game consoles and mobile phones.
With this, we know where CSM stand.
I see Chartered on a downtrend now. It will fall some more.
billywows, I'm a contrarian. When most people are avoiding or selling, it's time for me to take a look. I'll buy for technical reasons.
Not surprising.......CSM is punters darling but investors nightmare! So those who buy to catch the rebound need to know what they are doing.
Surprise you support CSM, Nostradamus .... very good price to go in at 1.00 or below.
Any insights to your intend purchase since most pple are avoiding CSM these days.
But, beware ya, cos everyone looks up to you and takes your comments seriously here. :P
Poised for a technical rebound. I'll buy this stock at around $0.94 - $1.
I will follow Bullrun's advice! Avoid!!
http://www.remisiers.org/research//csmsp210706ke.pdf
http://www.remisiers.org/research//CSM21Jul06ML.pdf
http://www.remisiers.org/research//CSM.pdf
http://www.remisiers.org/research//CSMDowng21Jul06ubs.pdf
We should disregard such so called analysts
Will continue to avoid even after Citigroup's upgrade.....
if you know your ABC...
this stock 2 steps back 1 step forward!
Got below's info on CSM's upgrade by Citigroup yesterday in US from Yahoo! forum. I read till blur blur .....
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Thought you might want to see what Citigroup wrote today when they upgraded Chartered Semiconductor.
Upgrading Chartered to BUY (1M) from Sell (3M)
After Chartered to give below consensus guidance, which might lead to
consensus estimate cuts, we revisit our Sell call and previous concerns: 1) Intel
CPU price war might affect AMD's outsourcing orders to Chartered; 2) rich
valuation of 1.9-2.0x book with ROE of 6-8%; 3) consensus estimates were
much higher than our estimates; and 4) xBOX 360 CPU order cuts seem to
haven been pushed back. However, after the recent share price pull-back,
along with the company's confirmation of another cut in xBOX 360 CPU orders,
we think the risk-reward is now more favorable for investors on a one year
investment horizon. We are thus upgrading Chartered to a Buy (1M) from a Sell
(3M) but trimming our one-year target price to US$8.8 from US$9.3 to reflect
5% lower than expected book value appreciation in the next few quarters. We
here explain our thought process changes to turn more positive on Chartered
now.
xBOX 360 CPU order cuts nearly over: As often emphasized in our reports,
we feared Chartered/IBM were over-producing xBOX 360 CPUs compared
with Microsoft's actual demand, and anticipated a large order cut in 1H06.
In line with this view, Chartered reported a xBOX 360 CPU order decline of
14% qoq in 1Q06 and of 10% qoq in 2Q06 to US$97m (25% of sales) and
US$87m (22% of sales), respectively. Surprisingly, Chartered guides to
another xBOX 360 CPU order cut in 3Q06, and we thus believe xBOX 360
CPU order cuts are nearly over based on our revised supply-demand
analysis. We now expect Microsoft to resume placing game CPU orders
with IBM/Chartered in 4Q06 for 4Q06-1Q07 seasonal demand in the game
market and expect larger orders recovery in 2Q07-4Q07 for 2007 xBOX
360 game consoles build-up.
AMD CPU orders on track with limited downside risk: Although Chartered
guides to weakness in the game IC market, Chartered expects strength in
the PC segment in 3Q06, especially driven by AMD 90nm CPU orders. This
strength, 2-3,000 12" wafers per month orders from AMD or nearly 5-10%
of Chartered sales, is expected to boost overall 90nm sales to grow
approximately 25% qoq by accounting for 28% of sales in 3Q06 from 22%
in 2Q06. Given concerns about Intel CPU price wars might result AMD to
lose market shares and also affect AMD's outsourcing order growth to
Chartered in a near term, we thus forecast much flattish AMD CPU orders
to Chartered throughout 3Q06-1H07E but also expect a limited downside
risk on these 2-3,000 wafers per month trial run orders. In terms of upside
potential on AMD orders to Chartered in 2007, we see Vista introduction in
early 2007, faster PC growth from emerging markets, and share gains on
the Dell account as positive upside catalysts.
Rich to attractive valuation on P/BV and EV/EBITDA: After nearly 43%
correction from 12-month peak of US$11.81 in May 2, 2006, Chartered is
now trading at a much attractive valuation of 1.3x 2007E-08E P/BV with a
revised ROE of 4-5% and a attractive valuation of 3.5-4.0 2007E-08E
EV/EBITDA. Given Chartered has been outperforming UMC on op margin
over the past three quarters, along with its better position on 90nm foundry
(17-18% of 3Q06E sales into 90nm for UMC vs 28% of 3Q06 sales into 90nm for Chartered)
and less exposure to potential handset IC inventory correction during 4Q06-1Q07,
we expect Chartered to be trading at a P/BV
premium again and to outperform UMC for the next 6 months once
inventory correction in the general market is completed. Chartered was
underperforming TSMC and UMC by 27% and 25%, respectively, since
May 2 2006 (12-month peak price).
Upgrading Chartered to BUY (1M) from Sell (3M)
After Chartered to give below consensus guidance, which might lead to
consensus estimate cuts, we revisit our Sell call and previous concerns: 1) Intel
CPU price war might affect AMD's outsourcing orders to Chartered; 2) rich
valuation of 1.9-2.0x book with ROE of 6-8%; 3) consensus estimates were
much higher than our estimates; and 4) xBOX 360 CPU order cuts seem to
haven been pushed back. However, after the recent share price pull-back,
along with the company's confirmation of another cut in xBOX 360 CPU orders,
we think the risk-reward is now more favorable for investors on a one year
investment horizon. We are thus upgrading Chartered to a Buy (1M) from a Sell
(3M) but trimming our one-year target price to US$8.8 from US$9.3 to reflect
5% lower than expected book value appreciation in the next few quarters. We
here explain our thought process changes to turn more positive on Chartered
now.
xBOX 360 CPU order cuts nearly over: As often emphasized in our reports,
we feared Chartered/IBM were over-producing xBOX 360 CPUs compared
with Microsoft's actual demand, and anticipated a large order cut in 1H06.
In line with this view, Chartered reported a xBOX 360 CPU order decline of
14% qoq in 1Q06 and of 10% qoq in 2Q06 to US$97m (25% of sales) and
US$87m (22% of sales), respectively. Surprisingly, Chartered guides to
another xBOX 360 CPU order cut in 3Q06, and we thus believe xBOX 360
CPU order cuts are nearly over based on our revised supply-demand
analysis. We now expect Microsoft to resume placing game CPU orders
with IBM/Chartered in 4Q06 for 4Q06-1Q07 seasonal demand in the game
market and expect larger orders recovery in 2Q07-4Q07 for 2007 xBOX
360 game consoles build-up.
AMD CPU orders on track with limited downside risk: Although Chartered
guides to weakness in the game IC market, Chartered expects strength in
the PC segment in 3Q06, especially driven by AMD 90nm CPU orders. This
strength, 2-3,000 12" wafers per month orders from AMD or nearly 5-10%
of Chartered sales, is expected to boost overall 90nm sales to grow
approximately 25% qoq by accounting for 28% of sales in 3Q06 from 22%
in 2Q06. Given concerns about Intel CPU price wars might result AMD to
lose market shares and also affect AMD's outsourcing order growth to
Chartered in a near term, we thus forecast much flattish AMD CPU orders
to Chartered throughout 3Q06-1H07E but also expect a limited downside
risk on these 2-3,000 wafers per month trial run orders. In terms of upside
potential on AMD orders to Chartered in 2007, we see Vista introduction in
early 2007, faster PC growth from emerging markets, and share gains on
the Dell account as positive upside catalysts.
Rich to attractive valuation on P/BV and EV/EBITDA: After nearly 43%
correction from 12-month peak of US$11.81 in May 2, 2006, Chartered is
now trading at a much attractive valuation of 1.3x 2007E-08E P/BV with a
revised ROE of 4-5% and a attractive valuation of 3.5-4.0 2007E-08E
EV/EBITDA. Given Chartered has been outperforming UMC on op margin
over the past three quarters, along with its better position on 90nm foundry
(17-18% of 3Q06E sales into 90nm for UMC vs 28% of 3Q06 sales into 90nm for Chartered)
and less exposure to potential handset IC inventory correction during 4Q06-1Q07,
we expect Chartered to be trading at a P/BV
premium again and to outperform UMC for the next 6 months once
inventory correction in the general market is completed. Chartered was
underperforming TSMC and UMC by 27% and 25%, respectively, since
May 2 2006 (12-month peak price).
Let's see how CSM will fare today in SGX after a 6% hike last nite in Nasdaq .....
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ASIAN ADRS
Asia rallies with buoyant Wall Street
By Ciara Linnane, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:33 PM ET Jul 24, 2006
<<CSM is punters darling but investors nightmare!>>
That's a good 1....
specially good for CSM!!!
Yup, strongly agree ... it is super speculative.
Interesting to see how CSM fare 2molo. Trade with care ....
CSM is punters darling but investors nightmare!
CSM in US upgraded by Citigroup today!
Its shares is up 7% with good abnormally high volume. Must be hudge funds buying in ... Watch CSM fly 2molo in SGX.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=CHRT