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UOB-KH just down grade this counter to Sell from Buy, with prev FV$0.29 to new FV$0.11...
If the new FV is $0.11, which is current price, any views which way this will go?
Since so far understand about the company is that they are still doing well...
Yes, if u want to b at buyer price, u need to q long long. If u think ds will cheong, then definitely u dun mind to buy at seller price, even one bid higher.
There got other tricks applying above as well. Not appropriate to broadcast in d forum.
crimson ( Date: 26-Feb-2009 14:02) Posted:
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im not going to buy tis anymore at least now,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,very uncertain after heavy selling,,,,,,,,,,,too many share at public how to push up,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,even fund manager also look like give out at 18ctc,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,and those margin call look like badly hurt by tis two day(suspect is big boy),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,i think must look closely who pit up the hot cake and when due date are the going to pit up or dump back again,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,so trade with care,,,,,,,,,,,dont contra
you mean block for biosensor? new higher high establish...
AK_Francis ( Date: 26-Feb-2009 09:42) Posted:
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Thousand over lots to block at 39.5 cts. Had x 40.
crimson ( Date: 26-Feb-2009 09:35) Posted:
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today low volumn... BB switch play to Biosensor liao...
In fact, CHHS is clever. Imagine if people default the payment and can't pay up the loan, the defaulter will have to give up the store and the loan provider will take over the stores at a relatively good price (cos they would have recover partial payment of the loans thus far). The loan is not really unsecure. It is in fact secure and to the advantage of the loan provider.
I don't agree that a lot of dumping is occuring by big player. If anyone have seen today sale, they are lots of big buying up but also lot of big selling down. I saw a very nice single buy up transaction of 12,000 lots. (Calculate for yourself how much u need to buy 12,000 lots at $0.12). Just this sales transaction alone can tell us many things. In fact, lots of psychology elements are inside the market and we can probably come to a good conclusion on what is happening and why it is happening by observing the trends.
Bottomline, I agree that this stock had good upward potential and we just need to wait a little bit longer for the fog of war to clear off. :)
richtan ( Date: 25-Feb-2009 11:11) Posted:
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In today's Straits Times:
"CHHS told SGX tat it ws not aware of any reason for such a decrease other than the general price weakness of China-based S"pore listed companies".
It added tat it "believe the group's STRONG BALANCE SHEET is sufficient to support its business operations despite the challenging environment this year"
It is not all lost, read the whole quote & do not mislead & cause fear to those unaware just by mentioning partial quote,
It would only be a fair posting if the whole quote is posted.
In any case, I believe majority of forumers are wise enuf to note the misinformation u mentioned
Fyi, in case u failed to notice, I paste the whole quote again below:
"In the event of a default in repayment by a distributor, the Group will take over the distributor’s operating rights to the store and its assets in accordance with the advance agreement made with the distributor."
Also remember, CHHS is cash-rich with no debts.
hotstock ( Date: 25-Feb-2009 08:51) Posted:
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So is it saying potential downside is higher, due to possible continued selling?
the advances to the distributors are indeed terribly large. The survival of these distributors are already in stake. What is worst is that the advances are unsecured.
I see more sell off. More big hands have been and are continuing to dump
Update..
1.Please indicate the amount of advances to distributors in 2008 which were outstanding at 31 December 2008.
As at 31 December 2008, the outstanding amount of advances to distributors was RMB1,155.5 million.
2. Please disclose the terms of the advances to distributors (ie. repayment period, penalties).
The advances to distributors are unsecured, interest-free and repayable within one year. In the
event of a default in repayment by a distributor, the Group will take over the distributor’s operating
rights to the store and its assets in accordance with the advance agreement made with the
distributor.
3. Please provide an indication if there are any difficulties in recovering the advances particularly given the current market conditions.
As at to date, the Group has recovered up to an aggregate amount of RMB50.3 million from the distributors. The distributors have
kept up with the repayment schedule and we have not encountered any collection problems from the distributors.
As at 1 January 2009, the Company has ceased to provide such advances to the distributors. The Company will continue to pursue
collection of the outstanding advances from distributors and will provide updates of the repayment of advances from distributors in its
quarterly results.
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_80767D4214EA7B724825756700373853/$file/CHX_Response_to_SGX_Queries_24Feb09.PDF?openelement
With so heavy volume changing hands between 9.5 to 13.5 cts, many of those stale bulls & weak holders would have been shaken-off & leared & a low base of high volume at this price range would definitely provide strong support & limited downside, attract bargain hunters & more upside potential.
louis_leecs ( Date: 24-Feb-2009 21:49) Posted:
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18cts stuck so long and give out finally come,,,,,,,,,,,,,,big buyer dumping,,,,,,,,the other like fund manager also follow dump,,,,,,,,,then shortist follow up short,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,anyway must look at big share holder movement,,,see wat happen akan datang week,,,,,,,,,,hope they can escape the force selling,,,,,,,,,and further more most of the share is hold by public,,,,,,,,,,,,,,so i think allot of them suffer heavy lost........................,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,so must be very carefully ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,++++++???????period
In the current extraordinary time when many companies are making losses, for CHHX to make 30% less profit is already quite an achievement, so I think it is unjustifiable being panic, herd instinct sold down.
The wise would be picking up a fire-sale & make profits from those foolish herd-instinct panic sellers throwing the baby out with the bathwater when the price starts to turn up.
des_khor ( Date: 24-Feb-2009 19:20) Posted:
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Haha the MFT change thier TP liao ah !! they said everything from top to bottom...
magchan08 ( Date: 24-Feb-2009 15:02) Posted:
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It seems that panic sellers is almost gone and someone (i mean a few BBs) are trying to push the price lower. As to why there are doing it, I am trying hard to ponder too. Maybe, someone can enlighten me on what good does it give the BB if the price of CHHS is being push to such a low. If anyone would have study the sales trend of CHHS this few days, there is indeed a lot of private investor buying in CHHS. This stock is greatly oversold at this point in time (RSI of 30 and below) and it could bounce back without any warning or continue to stay at oversold position from the gloomy US economy affecting global wide. Lets wait for Thursday (US time) and see what Mr Obama is going to announce in his Budget 2009. Hopefully the announced budget can boost some confidence and bring some light into the tunnel. If indeed it can bring some confidence into private investor, then we should see some good progress for many stocks (including CHHS).
Just my analysis and opinion. :)
the TP has been revised to around 0.215 by DBS Vickers sometime last week.
richtan ( Date: 24-Feb-2009 14:08) Posted:
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I haven't really study this stock yet. If the company has a sound cashflow, such price is really cheap. It seems like panic sell. I have got some at $0.11. Hope to have some quick return within weeks.
Stock markets are by nature driven by greed & fear & tends to overshoot.
Presently, irrational fear has caused CHHS to overshoot to the downside to present while smart money are quietly accumulating while creating fear & shaking off weak holders by saying waiting for lows of 5 cts, might as well say 0.5 cts.
Below extracted from DBSV Research:
Attractive valuations versus growth
We believe CHHS’ earnings should grow at a CAGR of almost 20%
between FY08 and FY10, driven by the Group’s plans to continue
expanding its number of points-of-sales by 600 per annum over the next
2 years. Backed by net cash/share of S$0.17, we believe CHHS is
significantly undervalued and reiterate our Buy call with TP at S$0.32,
pegged to 7.0x PER09.
Investor interest remained keen at our ‘Pulse of Asia’ Conference.
China Hongxing had the opportunity to meet up with over 30 fund
managers and buy-side analysts, with a packed group presentation
meeting, to provide an update on their business.
Earnings growth intact. China Hongxing maintained its optimism that
it should continue to see firm top line growth, driven by its aggressive
store expansion plan to open 600 POS per year in FY09 and FY10, which
will bring the number of stores from c. 3,850 by end FY08 to 5,050 by
end FY10. At the same time, the Group believes that with a fast-growing
segment of middle class consumers and affordability of its products
versus international brand names, that it can continue to capture more
market share. Hence, we maintain our projections that earnings of CHHS
can grow at a CAGR of almost 20% between FY08 and FY10, from 3.8
Scts to 5.4 Scts, driven mainly by its expanding store network.
RMB1.0b+ prepayment expected to be duly collected. The
prepayment paid by CHHS on behalf of distributors to secure prime
locations for new stores would be completely collected by early 2010. So
far, there has been no delay or default of distributors’ repayment. The
management has no plan to carry out such scheme again in future.
Margins sustainable. The company’s overall gross margin should also
improve in the long term, driven by a better sales mix from the highermargin
apparel and accessories segments. Since A&P budget is pegged
to revenue and there’s not much debt, the operating margin and net
margins are also expected to improve over time.
Attractive Valuation. Valuations are undemanding at 4.7x FY09 and
only 4.0x FY10 earnings, which is significantly under the peers’ average
about 7.3x FY09. Maintain Buy, with our target price at S$.032, pegged
at 7.0x PER09, backed by S$0.17 of net cash/share.