YZJ Shipbldg SGD    Last:2.25   -

Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

Yesterday closing was below my expectation, lowest since 16 Oct, I will sell some to lock in my profit first and buy after the correction.

 

I think yesterday plunged was probably due to several factors:

Bad overall market sentiment dragged by sharp drops in China n HSI (-1.9%).

Contral due date as Oldfox said

Sell on news ..3Q result .

 

I think more a panic seller, as not only Yang, many other counter also saw this sharp drop. Dow index saw a cross at high point  and  Nasdaq and S& P  saw a hangman all at high point, many might predict that the games is over and start selling and drive the panic sell, but this morning it show a reverse, all three index break the resistance and reach new high.

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 15:24) Posted: If you look at the chart, there was a surge with high volume (abt 25 millions)  5 days ago. I think that day must has draw in a lot of retail players which should had paid up on 11 Nov  but for  those who decided to contra off, they  have to sell latest by today. My guess is most of the sellers today are those who brought it on 6 Nov. (so far, today traded abt 10 millions)

 

I wonder why YZI did not post the news of new orders together with the 3Q report...

 

This guy is going to re-write his report tonite. 

YZJ win contract for 15 vessels at US$533M: 

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Announcement_20131113_corporateupdate.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=264215

WanSiTong      ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 21:35) Posted: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Earnings-decline overhang Written By Stock Fanatic on Wednesday, November 13, 2013 YZJ?s stock could be range-bound after its 21% appreciation since our upgrade in Aug on the back of stronger orders. Although we believe its order momentum can be sustained in the next six months, lower earnings and margins in FY14 could limit further near-term upside. We downgrade the stock to Neutral from Outperform. 9M13 net profit was in line at 70% of our FY13 forecast though above consensus at 85%. 9M13 order book was US$3.87bn (wins of US$2.1bn by 1 Oct). We raise our EPS for FY15 on higher revenue recognition and roll over our target price to end-FY14, still based on 1.4x P/BV (-1 s.d. of its 5-year mean). High tax in 3Q13 more ?other income? in 4Q13 3Q13 revenue declined 17% qoq as YZJ delivered eight vessels vs. 11 in 2Q13. Gross margins of 22% were slightly ahead of our 20%. 3Q13 net profit would have been higher if not for a high tax rate (29%) from withholding taxes for Chinese subsidiaries? distributable profits and higher taxes for its new yard (25% vs. 12.5% in FY12). 4Q13 revenue could dip qoq with fewer high-value vessels scheduled for delivery. Net profit, however, should still be on track as YZJ expects to receive government subsidies in compensation for yard relocation and tax incentives. Strong order outlook Our 2013 order target is still US$2.5bn, although management is bullish that YZJ may close 2013 with more than US$3bn of orders. YZJ has 28 outstanding options (US$1.36bn). Its order strength has in fact encouraged management to reopen its Changbo yard (shut in 2012), adding 10% capacity to handle smaller vessels (60k dwt bulkers and 1,000 teu containerships).  Payment terms have also improved to 30/70 or 40/60 from 20/80. Technical Analysis Daily Chart Weak FY14 before a recovery in FY15 YJZ may lack further near-term catalysts in view of weaker quarterly earnings widely expected for FY14 as it executes lower-margin vessels with most of its high-value pre-GFC vessels delivered in FY13. (Read Report) Source : CIMB Research

 

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Earnings-decline overhang

Written By Stock Fanatic on Wednesday, November 13, 2013

YZJ?s stock could be range-bound after its 21% appreciation since our upgrade in Aug on the back of stronger orders. Although we believe its order momentum can be sustained in the next six months, lower earnings and margins in FY14 could limit further near-term upside.

We downgrade the stock to Neutral from Outperform. 9M13 net profit was in line at 70% of our FY13 forecast though above consensus at 85%. 9M13 order book was US$3.87bn (wins of US$2.1bn by 1 Oct). We raise our EPS for FY15 on higher revenue recognition and roll over our target price to end-FY14, still based on 1.4x P/BV (-1 s.d. of its 5-year mean).

High tax in 3Q13 more ?other income? in 4Q13

3Q13 revenue declined 17% qoq as YZJ delivered eight vessels vs. 11 in 2Q13. Gross margins of 22% were slightly ahead of our 20%. 3Q13 net profit would have been higher if not for a high tax rate (29%) from withholding taxes for Chinese subsidiaries? distributable profits and higher taxes for its new yard (25% vs. 12.5% in FY12). 4Q13 revenue could dip qoq with fewer high-value vessels scheduled for delivery. Net profit, however, should still be on track as YZJ expects to receive government subsidies in compensation for yard relocation and tax incentives.

Strong order outlook

Our 2013 order target is still US$2.5bn, although management is bullish that YZJ may close 2013 with more than US$3bn of orders. YZJ has 28 outstanding options (US$1.36bn). Its order strength has in fact encouraged management to reopen its Changbo yard (shut in 2012), adding 10% capacity to handle smaller vessels (60k dwt bulkers and 1,000 teu containerships). 

Payment terms have also improved to 30/70 or 40/60 from 20/80.

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

Weak FY14 before a recovery in FY15

YJZ may lack further near-term catalysts in view of weaker quarterly earnings widely expected for FY14 as it executes lower-margin vessels with most of its high-value pre-GFC vessels delivered in FY13. (Read Report)

Source : CIMB Research

 

Point noted! Learning in progress!

 

If you look at the chart, there was a surge with high volume (abt 25 millions)  5 days ago. I think that day must has draw in a lot of retail players which should had paid up on 11 Nov  but for  those who decided to contra off, they  have to sell latest by today. My guess is most of the sellers today are those who brought it on 6 Nov. (so far, today traded abt 10 millions)

 

sold at 1.185


sideline for a while...

 

Is due to commodity counters all are dropping.

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 14:55) Posted: I suspect today decline was a trap set for the contra players entered during a surge on 6 Nov when the price jumped from 1.175 to 1.205. Today is the last day  for them to cover, therefore, better play when u have holding power.

 

T+5.... need to pick up....or have to sell...

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 14:55) Posted: I suspect today decline was a trap set for the contra players entered during a surge on 6 Nov when the price jumped from 1.175 to 1.205. Today is the last day  for them to cover, therefore, better play when u have holding power.

 

Bro oldflyingfox mind shedding somelight on this trap that you speak of? Newbie here!

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 14:55) Posted: I suspect today decline was a trap set for the contra players entered during a surge on 6 Nov when the price jumped from 1.175 to 1.205. Today is the last day  for them to cover, therefore, better play when u have holding power.

 

I suspect today decline was a trap set for the contra players entered during a surge on 6 Nov when the price jumped from 1.175 to 1.205. Today is the last day  for them to cover, therefore, better play when u have holding power.

 

China lau sai ...vague statements of meeting disappoint Analysts.

 

One reason for price decline is perhaps due to no new orders since Oct. This may be attributed in my opinion to the following reason:

1. Ship owners have already placed in their orders in the 3Q where Baltic Dry Index surges and/or

2. As in the YZJ's press release for 3Q 2013 (page 4), YZJ has limited capacity to take on new order, so they may intend to take more  technology advanced orders (which I think means higher margins order) in the future. So in a nutshell,  YZJ is  getting picky. Whether this is a good sign or bad depends on individual's take.

 

There are selling momentum yesterday and it proves that this counter is not meant for contra players.

Ships are meant to hit currents that are often against our favour but we should be assured that this is a mega ship backed by our brothers up north. Most importantly if getting into this counter won't risk your daily meals, peservere. You can't always jump off a ship when the ship rocks, right?

 

Today's declining might be caused by overall market sentiment, not particular to YZJ.

 

Looking at the stocks market, just have a feeling that something is going to happen but don t know what's that. I'm just a newbie, hope am wrong. The unexpected part for Yangzijiang maybe the price downward today although good result announced ??

Hawkeye      ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 12:03) Posted: Result out liao, early morning. Expect the expected - result as normal profitable 22% margin +7% from investment = 29% Don know why still down - rally liao. http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorporateAnnouncement_Content& B=AnnouncementLast3Months& F=1022224 Sam1903      ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 11:59) Posted: expect the unexpected... I learn from Noble and Cosco, hope am wrong...

 

Result out liao, early morning. Expect the expected - result as normal profitable 22% margin +7% from investment = 29%

Don know why still down - rally liao.

http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorporateAnnouncement_Content& B=AnnouncementLast3Months& F=1022224

Sam1903      ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 11:59) Posted: expect the unexpected... I learn from Noble and Cosco, hope am wrong... frozentouch      ( Date: 11-Nov-2013 23:26) Posted: Any news of when the quarterly result will be released?

 

expect the unexpected... I learn from Noble and Cosco, hope am wrong...

frozentouch      ( Date: 11-Nov-2013 23:26) Posted: Any news of when the quarterly result will be released?