
hahah` follow the market trend...and look at the technical charts...my indicators actually "shouted" a sell call for China Hongx on Monday...saw tt it broke resistance...i shorted this counter using CFD only to see it go down further...bought back too early
This morning from CIMB:
China Hongxing Sports (S$0.61) - Unwarranted selldown; fundamentals intact
We continue to like Hongxing for its exposure to domestic consumption and competitive advantage as owner of one of the leading mid-tier athletic brands in China. We expect 4Q07 revenue to rise 46% yoy to Rmb701.9m and net profit to expand 15% yoy to Rmb114.6m. Due to risks surrounding global growth and inflation, we have ascribed a lower target valuation of 20x CY09 P/E to Hongxing, down from 27x CY09 P/E. This reduces our target price from S$1.32 to S$0.98. At 20x CY09 P/E, Hongxing would still be trading in line with its China peers. Hongxing?s longer-term potential as a leading retailer and brand owner in China remains intact and we maintain Outperform.
Time | Last | Volume | Buy/Sell |
11:36:10 | 0.510 | 12,000 | Sell Down |
11:36:06 | 0.510 | 5,000 | Sell Down |
11:36:05 | 0.510 | 50,000 | Sell Down |
11:35:57 | 0.510 | 100,000 | Sell Down |
11:35:36 | 0.510 | 1,000 | Sell Down |
11:35:15 | 0.510 | 10,000 | Sell Down |
11:35:05 | 0.510 | 5,000 | Sell Down |
11:34:52 | 0.510 | 50,000 | Sell Down |
11:34:39 | 0.515 | 20,000 | Buy Up |
11:34:39 | 0.510 | 5,000 | Sell Down |
11:34:18 | 0.510 | 10,000 | Sell Down |
11:33:32 | 0.515 | 10,000 | Buy Up |
11:33:14 | 0.510 | 183,000 | Sell Down |
11:33:07 | 0.510 | 1,000 | Sell Down |
11:32:56 | 0.515 | 391,000 | Sell Down |
11:32:37 | 0.520 | 20,000 | Buy Up |
11:32:30 | 0.520 | 2,000 | Sell Down |
11:32:25 | 0.525 | 6,000 | Buy Up |
11:32:19 | 0.520 | 700,000 | Sell Down |
11:32:16 | 0.520 | 1,000 | Sell Down |
January 2008
We are updating our edition of Merrill Lynch?s ?Most and Least Preferred
Stocks? for Singapore. While the six stocks recommended are consistent
with our fundamental 12-month outlook, this monthly list is intended for
investors with a short-term time horizon.
Buy stocks with high earnings visibility and ST catalysts
We like stocks with stable and high earnings visibility, especially given the current
murky global economic outlook. We are including Cosco Corporation and China
Hongxing on the most-preferred list as China?s strong expansion will continue to
fuel superior earnings growth. Meanwhile, on our least-preferred list, we have
added SGX as we believe the stock will underperform due to its lofty valuations.
Most preferred
Cosco Corporation: (1) The leading shipyard in China with an order book of
approximately US$6bn, giving the group strong earnings visibility through 2011
(2) Strong capacity expansion through 2010 will present an opportunity for
positive growth re-ratings.
SC Global Developments: (1) Strong earnings growth with an estimated EPS
CAGR of 209% over the next 3 years (2) Valuations are attractive at 2x and 1x
2008-09E earnings and 1.2x and 0.6x P/B (3) Stock is trading at a 50% discount
to its RNAV of S$4.75.
China Hongxing: (1) Exposure to China?s growing sportswear segment which is
estimated to grow from US$2bn to over US$12bn for 2006-12 (2) There remains
room for further margin expansion; we expect margins to expand from 37% in
FY06 to 44% in FY09.
Least preferred
Chartered Semiconductor: (1) Earnings risk remains high due to slow inventory
digestion and market share losses at AMD (2) High depreciation costs and order
cancellations hurting margins (3) Trading at a premium to its Taiwanese peers
M1: (1) Continues to be squeezed by bundled offers from SingTel and StarHub.
(2) MNP to be introduced by 2Q08 will stiffen competition (3) Underlying earnings
remain flat over the next three forecast years.
SGX: (1) Valuations are rich as multiples have expanded without a corresponding
expansion in earnings (2) Market volumes are volatile and tend to mean-revert
over time (3) Potential M&A speculation is far from a certainty.
Holding up well and could move upwards anytime......
One of the top picks in 2008 based on CIMB-GK report.
Good luck.

