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Bintang ( Date: 28-Jan-2011 19:28) Posted:
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Tip Improving volume performance (as reflected in its January 2011 statistics) would provide it further support, while higher YoY FFB harvested in Jan11, given subsiding biological tree stress and improving maturity profile, has improved yields in Jan11 from 1.5t/ha from 1.4t/ha YoY.
Bintang ( Date: 20-Jan-2011 16:05) Posted:
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First Resources Limited – Update (Jasmine Lee)
Recommendation: Hold
Previous close: S$1.45
Fair value: S$1.53
· Share placement of 90 million shares at S$1.48 each. Of the 90 million shares, 75 million shares are from Eight Capital Inc. and 15 million are treasury shares.
· Rationale of placement is to increase the Company’s free float. After placement, free float increases to ~25%. Eight Capital Inc. remains a major shareholder, owning ~68% of the Company
· Earnings dilution to be negligible (~1.0%) due to the sale of the 15 million treasury shares. Increasing the total outstanding shares from 1,453 million to 1,468 million
· After updating our model, using a cost of equity of 10.26% and based on the DCF method, we have a new target price of S$1.53 and maintain our Hold recommendation for the stock
/PS/
axlaxlaxl ( Date: 20-Jan-2011 15:48) Posted:
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Bluevaio ( Date: 20-Jan-2011 15:43) Posted:
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marubozu1688 ( Date: 09-Jan-2011 14:42) Posted:
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Fundamental looks good for First Resources. Just need to wait for a right price to enter.
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/first-resources/first-resources-fundamental-and-chart-analysis/
UOBKH Technical Comment
First Resources – MACD Signals Potential Top
Last price: S$ 1.50
Resistance: S$ 1.56
Support: S$ 1.33
First Resources has been on an uptrend forming higher
highs and higher lows since June. We expect a price top to
form as we see the MACD lines are well above the zero
mark in overbought territory, as well as price making
higher highs while MACD failing to make higher highs.
Declining volumes also point to a possible price reversal.
Resistance is expected at S$1.33.
You have a nice day
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
Singapore
15 Nov 2010
First Resources Limited – Results (Jasmine Lee)
Recommendation: Hold
Previous close: S$1.40
Fair value: S$1.54
· 9M10 and 3Q10 revenue increased by 39.8% y-y and 42.9% y-y to US$212.2m and US$88.2m respectively. 9M10 and 3Q10 net profit also increased by 21.3% y-y and 40.1% y-y to US$72.6m and US$36.9m respectively.
· Improvement in performance and better margins were mainly driven by higher prices of CPO and cost management.
· FFB production has seen strong recovery in 3Q10 and recovery is expected to continue in 4Q10. FFB production for 9M10 and 3Q10 was 1,100,304 tonnes (+0.1% y-y) and 476,523 tonnes (+16.5% y-y) respectively
· Revising our estimated average CPO prices for First Resources to US$825/tonne in FY10 and US$800/tonne in FY11 and using a cost of equity of 11.24%, we derived a target price of S$1.54 using the DCF method. We downgrade our call to a Hold recommendation in view of limited upside
//
Hope you guys have managed to load up over the past few days as I have! :D It's time for the shorts to cover and for FirstRes to go up again!
even at 1.05 today its still lower than the stupid analyst price target at 1.16.
Jump in or miss the ride up!
Wah lau eh, analyst changing his mind. the funds must be trying to buy in so they dont miss the boat up. Go release this kind of report that have not much added value.
if price taget is $1.16 after 1 year means at current price I should sell and not hold since there is no upside. dunno what kind of logic they have.
First Resources, Hold S$1.24 (Downgrade from Buy) Bloomberg: FR SP
> Aggressive growth priced in > Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.16
> By: Ben SANTOSO +65 6398 7976
> > Key takeaways: Stepping up new planting in FY10F to 12-15k ha; CPO > production to reach 400k MT > > Long-term planted area: 200k ha; to expand into midstream > activities by 1H11F > > Consensus earnings forecasts may be aggressive. Rating cut to Hold > on limited upside. > > Planted area grew by 12k in FY09. First Resources expanded its planted area > by 9,635 ha in 9M09, mostly at its West Kalimantan land bank. We expect the > group’s new planting to have swelled to 12k ha by the end of last year > (result due out on 1 March 2010) – of which West Kalimantan estates should > account for 8k ha. The group expects its own CPO production to reach > 360k-365k MT this year (or c.400k MT including smallholders), close to our > expectation of 363k MT. > > Stepping up new planting. This year, the group plans to expand planted area > more aggressively (by12-15k ha) to expedite its long-term objective of 200k > ha of planted area. The group’s 90k ha land bank in West Kalimantan would > account for most of this growth. FR has installed its 250k MT refining > capacity (part of the original biodiesel plant) and is planning to produce > RBD palm oil in the near term. A US$7m fractionation attachment is planned > for commission by end 1H11F, by which time FR should start to produce RBD > olein and RBD stearin. > > Acquisitions may not be value accretive. The group prefers organic growth. > FR is open to acquisition opportunities, but we understand that most > estates on offer are priced for perfection. FR is focusing on existing land > bank, where cost-to-maturity is estimated at between US$3,500 and > US$4,000/ha, depending on terrain. > > Rating cut to Hold. We believe the counter’s current price has priced-in > the anticipated 3-year earnings CAGR of 12.2%. But there could be negative > earnings surprise, given recent earnings upgrades were based on high CPO > price assumptions. We downgrade FR to Hold from Buy.
Correcting nicely now. Probably can pick up some stocks if back to 1.15 or less otherwise hold till $2+
India now top consumer!!! First they push up gold price, now they will push up palm oil price!
Very volatile this morning, me just exited at 1.19 will buy back if back below 1.15 as CPO price is going down. Anyone care to enlighten why this counter, kencana and wilmar up today despite the falling CPO prices??
Bintang ( Date: 10-Jan-2010 18:03) Posted:
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integra ( Date: 09-Jan-2010 12:34) Posted:
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Hi integra, me bought at 1.11 just to plant some seeds. Expect some downside with the recent rally (good oppotunity to buy in again if go back below $1), but in the medium term this counter will be good as well, IndoAgri already completed a leg of super-run up (still may up as some analyst revised target), golden agri is now super-running. This stock running with the pack (may be pushed up by funds as previous posts have informed). Wilmar already fully valued. I would think Kencana is the only other palm counter that can also run if some fund decide to push it up.