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Prepare for trading on Bear market!

But right now, I am into simplificating things...

so I presently only use Sharejunction's and POEMS' simplest of charts...

which I wish to thank them for....

 

jackjames, thats why a portfolio size ane how much each stocks max limit is very impt. next, i would recommend trading only blue chips as they recover the fastest. spread ur stocks to diff industries to steer from cycle of each industry. pennies can play but play with care. or lesser size.

 for me, at only time, i will only lose not more than 33% of my funds if eveything turn against us.

 

But right now, I am into simplificating things...

so I presently only use Sharejunction's and POEMS' simplest of charts...

which I wish to thank them for....

 

software system can only tell you a counter is oversold, but the software cannot sense the overall market sentiments, such as sub-prime, sars, for this time round is sub-prime, so,  you can say, by using the software, you can really spot some counters which is really oversold, but again , if you follow the software blindly, you buy the counter, and it still can drop further due to the overall atmosphere ... actually, I am trying hard to get back my hard earned cash little by little as long as it break my purchase price.. can you believe I bought most counters last middle of month and i am on paper loss.... shit .... i thought it is good deal, but agian, it goes south again, u will say hold for long term, it will be better, but who knows? US economic will never get better next year,  plus bubble of china, actually, i want to sell all my shares as long as i can breakeven and sit sidelines and watch those counters at my radar list, and check if that's really cheap until noone can believe, then, i will buy..

paperloss now for myself now is HPL, Ho Bee, Heeton, YongNam, MiddleEast, the biggest mistake I make this time is all the golden eggs at "BROWN" basket, thought it will be placed nicely at golden basket too, ha ha... but again... I believe I shall breakeven soon, if not, many people will be with me , this can console me a bit la.

 

Looking at the economic sign, bear is certainly on the way.  High oil price, Subprime loan result in US recession, China government curb inflation and growth.  Market wont cheong when the all the fundamentals are not right. 

See how.

 

cashiertan, hi u are using trade station for Futures?

I used IQ trader and many others for Auto Futures trading, but some software

crash while trading or some connection lost. find it horrible system.

how about yours?

 

my blog on nikkei chart shows bearish for MACD, seems to confirm japan slow growth.

i gusess charts are showing early indication of economy growth direction. not a good sign.

 

Japan's Bonds Rise for a Third Week as BOJ Says Growth May Slow
By Oliver Biggadike
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese government bonds rose for a third week, pushing 10-year yields to the lowest in 21 months, as central bank Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said global financial market turmoil may hurt the nation's economy.

The benchmark notes completed the longest series of weekly gains in eight months as Muto, a likely candidate to replace Governor Toshihiko Fukui, said yesterday the U.S. housing market slump may make it ``difficult'' to decide when to raise Japanese interest rates. Markets are ``unstable,'' Bank of Japan policy makers said in minutes of the Oct. 10-11 meeting.

``People think JGBs are very, very safe'' compared with lower-rated securities like corporate bonds, Xinyi Lu, chief strategist at the international treasury division at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, said yesterday. ``Financial institutions have to get a return on their money and need to buy JGBs.''

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell as much as 3.5 basis points to 1.46 percent, according to Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest interdealer debt broker. The yield was 1.47 percent as of the close in Tokyo, taking the decline for the week to 5.5 basis points. The price of the 1.7 percent bond due September 2017 rose 0.218 yen to 101.975 yen. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Ten-year bond futures for December delivery gained 0.19 to 137.04 as of the close yesterday on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

The central bank on Nov. 13 kept its target for the overnight call rate, the main rate at which banks lend to each other, at 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies.

U.S. Yield Spread
U.S. Treasuries rallied to the highest in more than two years on Nov. 15, reducing the extra yield paid by 10-year securities compared with similar-maturity Japanese debt.

The spread between the two notes narrowed to 2.70 percentage points from a four-year high of 3.36 percentage points on June 12, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``JGBs don't look very expensive compared to the U.S.,'' Mizuho's Lu said. The difference in yield will probably decline to 2.62 percentage points within a month, he said.

Global stocks fell, increasing demand for the relative safety of government debt, after Wells Fargo & Co. said it's ``not immune'' to what it said is the worst U.S. housing market since the Great Depression, and Barclays Plc wrote down $2.7 billion of securities tied to subprime mortgages.

Lu predicts that Japanese 10-year yields will fall to 1.38 percent in a month as U.S. 10-year yields decline to 4 percent from 4.16 percent yesterday.

Recession Risk
Gains were limited by speculation yields are so low they overstate the risk that the Japanese economy contracts. The 10- year note should yield 1.55 percent assuming a 30 percent chance of a recession in Japan, according to JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.

``Right now, more of the sentiment is driving the market,'' said Hitomi Kimura, a fixed-income analyst at JPMorgan in Tokyo, referring to the credit market turmoil. ``Once that phases out, theoretical value, or fair value, will come in.''

The yield on 10-year notes will probably increase to 1.6 percent by the end of the year and investors should delay any purchases until the security rises to 1.55 percent, she said.

The 10-year note will yield 1.8 percent by year-end while Treasuries will be at 4.39 percent, according to Bloomberg surveys of analysts, with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings.

Default Risk Rises
The risk of companies and governments in the Asia-Pacific region defaulting on their debt increased yesterday on speculation losses on U.S. subprime mortgage securities will worsen and erode consumer confidence in the world's biggest economy.

The BOJ's Muto said policy makers ``are fully aware'' growth in Japan would be threatened should the U.S. slowdown infect the rest of the world. The housing crisis and banks' reluctance to lend have yet to damp spending by U.S. consumers and companies, he added.

Credit-default swaps on the benchmark iTraxx Japan Series 8 Index of 50 investment-grade Japanese companies, including All Nippon Airways Co. and Japan Tobacco Inc., rose 2.75 basis points to 42.5 basis points, Morgan Stanley prices show.

Investors' expectations for Japanese inflation over the next decade fell this week by the most in almost three months, judging by yields.

The extra yield paid by 10-year government debt compared with similar-maturity inflation-protected securities declined 5 basis points to 39 basis points this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The so-called breakeven inflation rate reflects investors' expectations for average annual increases in consumer prices over the life of the bond.

To contact the reporter on this story: Oliver Biggadike in Tokyo at obiggadike@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: November 16, 2007 18:23 EST

 

the 10000%+ and 3000%+ returns are abt the best i got , there are some system there yield neagtive and some even got just less than 100% returns. backtest is abit for fun and trial and error.

 

collin, does your result includes "fees" coz i program mine to deduct 0.5% off the amt for each entry and exit.

 

collin, what charting software to backtest? i am using tradestation. cheers

 

collin i believe ur system validity, i personal has back tested many system myself with result ard the same of yours. i think ur system has not added the pyramid system to your own system. most of those 1000% return system results has incorporated pyramid systems. for me, some of the system i backtested returned 10000%+ returns over 10 years or 3000% returns over 5 years trading over diff instruments.

 

bear or bull ,plz make ur mind 01101749, to me bear may be possible but i think ur thread abit  too early thou of good gesture to warn us in adv.

actually most of us  "know" that 2008 should have a bear which usually does after rally since so many years.  however i think we will have a last bull rally before the bear.

elliot wave indicate we are in wave 4, when it ends i dunnoe but there waill be a wave 5. plz note wave 5 may not surpass the prev high of wave 3 thus dun expect new high again as it may or maynot happen.

abv wave theory is derived from uob kayhian elliot wav analysis which can be found at their website.

 

 

 

Bull Bull come again the subprime woes has gone away!

 

Bull went for one week of holiday... Soon Bull will come back next week, although sub prime is still there.

 

Bull went for holiday!

 

On today straight time: China economy faces threat from US Slow Down.

my opinion with some news paper info add on:

China rapid growth will have serious effect as china exported face slow down, thus slow down china economy. The current china stock are priced at high rapid growth, will face correction to bring down expensive valuation. take causion trading china stock, any stock above PE 30 is very expensive and will face serious correction. also must take into account the double impact to china economy on US falling dollar & US slowing economy. 

 

We may be in 'that time' which I mentioned not too long ago.  I am also reading what I have posted not too long ago and reminding myself what I have learnt.  Have a great weekend!

http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/listMessage.htm?topicId=4262

 

 

 

collinseow, nice blog. got people donate money to u mah?

 

collinseow ,hi  your trading system 300% seems to be low, there are others out there claim 1000% better then your system mah.

come on lah, dont bluff lah hehehe