Allgreen   

Allgreen - Can buy ?

Allgreen Properties (another of my Stock Picks) reported net profit for FY2009 of S$162.7mn - a rise of 141%
Monday, 1 March, 2010  2:31 PM
Posted by Kevin Scully



Allgreen Properties 2009 results came in as expected.   The stock has not performed since our recommendation despite the very strong FY2009 numbers which saw revenue rise 75% to S$620mn and net profit up 141% to S$162.7mn with EPS of 10.9 cents.   NTA is at S$1.48 with the Company proposing a final dividend of 4 cents.

At S$1.14 (today's price), the share is trading at 10.5 times PER, 077 times Price to Book and offering a 3.5% dividend yield. Gearing of Allgreen has improved further to 0.34 in 2009 from 0.45 in 2008.

Most property stocks have under-performed since the Government introduced its new property curbs, ie loan to value of 80% down from 90% before and stamp duty applicable to sales within a year of purchase.  These together with an increase in land supply were targetted and curbing property speculation and moderating the rise in property prices.

Its too early to tell whether the new measures have dampened demand but recent launches post the measures continue to attract demand.  This augurs well for property stocks like Allgreen. Other brokerages have upgraded their target price to between S$1.50 to S$1.60 on the back of the 2009 results. My own target can be found in my stock pick section.  I continue to like to stock which offers upside of at least 20% from current levels but investors may have to wait for the negative effects of the new property measures to ease before the sector and stock can start to perform again.

Allgreen also reported that it launched the 83 units at Holland Residences, off Holland Village, on 25 January 2010 and to-date have sold 74 units. We have a few other projects in the pipeline for launch.   

 

Allgreen is not the only 1 selling below NAV. Look at UOL and Hongfok - both tading at even bigger discount to NAV. I'm vested in all three. Recent trend seems to be redevelopment of old CBD commercial properties to residential. All have great potential for redevelopment of existing commercial properties to residential to reap higher returns. Also,Suntec Reit that is also undervalued - can redevelop Park Mall to residential.

ALLGREEN:

NAV per share = $1.48

Selling price now = $1.15

Discount to NAV = 22.3%

UOL:

NAV = $5.25

Selling price now = $3.98

Discount to NAV = 24.2%

HongFok:

NAV = $1.28 (3Q09)

Selling price now = $0.645

Discount to NAV = 49.6%

 

Dear Allgreen Investors,

Slight amendment from the previous post:

Based on the Net Asset Value per share of S$1.48, total value of Allgreen should be 1,590,381,000 x 1.48 = S$ 2.35 billion

The Real Asset of the property/Hotel (Great World City (Office), Great World City (Retail), Great World Serviced Apartments, Traders Hotel, Tanglin Mall and Tanglin Place) is S$ 1.98 billion.  It means that Allgreen has another approx S$ 0.37 billion in other assets, which makes total value of S$ 2.35 billion.

Based on today's closing, share capitalisation is 1,590,381,000 x 1.15 = S$ 1.83 billion, which is hefty S$0.52 billion or S$ 520 million discount to its Real total asset value of S$ 2,350 million.

What it simply means is that when you buy into Allgreen, you are buying part of the total value of S$ 2.35 billion at discount of S$ 0.52 billion or 22% discount to real total value of S$ 2.35 billion.

It gives return good dividends of approx 3.5% (based on 0.4/1.15) and best part is that it is growing business.  Potential of capital gain if it surpasses its NAV just like other property developers is reasonable.

One savvy investor commented that

 High dividends of S$ 0.04. Possibly due to 34% owned by Robert Kuok, who will not sell the shares, will reap high dividends as strong recurring income. Very credible management based on the projects secured and launched and the profits generated.   Robert Kuok is the richest man in Malaysia and South-East Asia. 

Best Regards


 

Dear Allgreen Investors,

Strong sterling sets of results (of 31 Dec 2009) for Allgreen. In my view, Allgreen is fundamental stock, with qualities as specified by Dr Michael Leong "Your First $1,000,000 Making It In Stock". Dr Michael Leong is successful stock investor, founder of investment portal ShareInvestor, who sold the business to Singapore Press Holdings for S$ 12 million (stand corrected). For fundamental stock, it must have a significant discount to NTA (net tangible assets) and definition if very simple, either in cash or properties in Singapore. Other criteria include strong cashflow, in growth industry, products with premium and strong recurring income and credible management. Allgreen seems to me to fit into the above criteria:

1. As of 31 Dec 2009, the valuation of the property/Hotel (Great World City (Office), Great World City (Retail), Great World Serviced Apartments, Traders Hotel, Tanglin Mall and Tanglin Place) is S$ 1.98 billion. This is higher than the stock market capitalisation of S$ 1.78 billion (based on S$1.12 closing). Allgreen's price of S$ 1.12 is S$ 0.36 lower than its NTA of S$ 1.48. It means the price is of significant discount to NTA.

2. Profit after tax surged 120% to S$ 199 million.

3. Earnings per share is 10.23 cents. It means Price/Earnings ratio of 1.12/0.1023 = 10.9.  Based on conservative 20% growth rate, it means price should be worth 20 x 0.1023 = S$ 2.05. 

4. Growth industry. Strong properties' sales (too good that the government is introducing measures, just like China and Hongkong). All VIVA (Novena) units 100% sold. 74 units out of 83 units of Holland Residences sold to date. Brisk business at approx S$ 1700 psf for Holland Residences suggest high margin.  Allgreen had held on to this plot of 8 bungalows for past 13 years before it was launched this year. Other few projects in the pipeline include all high-end properties, such as Cascadia (Bukit Timah); River Valley Residences and Orchard.  These are products with premium.

5. High dividends of S$ 0.04. Possibly due to 34% owed by Robert Kuok, who will not sell the shares, will reap high dividends as strong recurring income. Very credible management based on the projects secured and launched and the profits generated.

6. Strong cashflow. Group's gearing was 0.34x with net borrowings at S$892.4 million as of 31 Dec 2009, as compared with 0.45x with net borrowings at S$ 1,137.6 million of 31 Dec 2008.

If you notice, 2 days ago, total more than 10 million shares changed hand with price going to S$ 1.10. Possibly due to Big Boys accumulating for the run up ? Good luck to all Allgreen Investors.  Need to have patience in next 4 to 6 mths for run up to at least NTA value of S$ 1.48 and S$2.05 (which will be peak of bull-run).  Happy New Year.

 

Hope it reach its NAV value soon......cheerio

 

I believe should not be a problem. With divi of $40 / lot, it looks not bad too.

Today hold strong at $1.12 when Dow drop yesterday.

If tonight Dow hold well in GREEN, Allgreen may proceed upwards next week.

 

I bought at 1.20 just before the anti speculative measures were announced too bad. Just hope it can reach at least it's NTA value

 

Dear Allgreen Investors,

Strong sterling sets of results (of 31 Dec 2009) for Allgreen. In my view, Allgreen is fundamental stock, with qualities as specified by Dr Michael Leong "Your First $1,000,000 Making It In Stock". Dr Michael Leong is successful stock investor, founder of investment portal ShareInvestor, who sold the business to Singapore Press Holdings for S$ 12 million (stand corrected). For fundamental stock, it must have a significant discount to NTA (net tangible assets) and definition if very simple, either in cash or properties in Singapore. Other criteria include strong cashflow, in growth industry, products with premium and strong recurring income and credible management. Allgreen seems to me to fit into the above criteria:

1. As of 31 Dec 2009, the valuation of the property/Hotel (Great World City (Office), Great World City (Retail), Great World Serviced Apartments, Traders Hotel, Tanglin Mall and Tanglin Place) is S$ 1.98 billion. This is higher than the stock market capitalisation of S$ 1.78 billion (based on S$1.12 closing). Allgreen's price of S$ 1.12 is S$ 0.36 lower than its NTA of S$ 1.48. It means the price is of significant discount to NTA.

2. Profit after tax surged 120% to S$ 199 million.

3. Earnings per share is 10.23 cents. It means Price/Earnings ratio of 1.12/0.1023 = 10.9.  Based on conservative 20% growth rate, it means price should be worth 20 x 0.1023 = S$ 2.05. 

4. Growth industry. Strong properties' sales (too good that the government is introducing measures, just like China and Hongkong). All VIVA (Novena) units 100% sold. 74 units out of 83 units of Holland Residences sold to date. Brisk business at approx S$ 1700 psf for Holland Residences suggest high margin.  Allgreen had held on to this plot of 8 bungalows for past 13 years before it was launched this year. Other few projects in the pipeline include all high-end properties, such as Cascadia (Bukit Timah); River Valley Residences and Orchard.  These are products with premium.

5. High dividends of S$ 0.04. Possibly due to 34% owed by Robert Kuok, who will not sell the shares, will reap high dividends as strong recurring income. Very credible management based on the projects secured and launched and the profits generated.

6. Strong cashflow. Group's gearing was 0.34x with net borrowings at S$892.4 million as of 31 Dec 2009, as compared with 0.45x with net borrowings at S$ 1,137.6 million of 31 Dec 2008.

If you notice, 2 days ago, total more than 10 million shares changed hand with price going to S$ 1.10. Possibly due to Big Boys accumulating for the run up ? Good luck to all Allgreen Investors.  Need to have patience in next 4 to 6 mths for run up to at least NTA value of S$ 1.48 and S$2.05 (which will be peak of bull-run).  Happy New Year.

 

Still holding on at $1.12 but didn't lock-in more when it was down to 1.09-1.10 the past few days. I got my buddies to buy the past few days which they got it for the price of $1.10 which is lower than mine :) . Congrats to them. As mentioned, short-term uptrend for this and will be looking at disposing this soon when the price is right :)

SOBAYOR,

star-trader

 

 

star-trader      ( Date: 18-Feb-2010 22:31) Posted: As written in my daily investment blog, it is a definitely a hold for this stock for those who has purchased few days back. Personally , got it at SGD1.12 and will tend to hold further till the next wave of selling... http://star-trader.blogspot.com/2010/02/allgreen-properties-any-way-to-prop.html SOBAYOR, star-trader

 

4 cents divi for each Allgreen share. Not bad toooooooo

 

A good dream, cheers

FearValueGreed      ( Date: 20-Feb-2010 13:13) Posted: Buy only at 50cents

 

Buy only at 50cents

 

depend which property stock u buy........

Jackpot2010      ( Date: 20-Feb-2010 11:05) Posted: All prop stocks will sell down on Monday.! Feb 20, 2010 New property rules Pay stamp duty if you 'flip' property; bank loans capped at 80% By Joyce Teo TOUGHER rules on bank loans and measures to rein in speculators take effect today, as the Government steps up moves to cool the sizzling property market. First, anyone who sells a property within a year of buying it will have to pay stamp duty of around 3 per cent. That means from today, if you buy a home and sell it at $500,000 within 12 months, you will have to fork out $9,600 in stamp duty. This is on top of the stamp duty you had to pay on the purchase. Second, lending institutions will now be allowed to lend only up to 80 per cent of the purchase price, not 90 per cent. Buyers will have to come up with at least 20 per cent themselves. Housing Board loans are not affected by this change in what is called the loan-to-value (LTV) limit. The sellers' stamp duty will hit short-term speculators, observers said, while the change in the bank loan limit is likely to weed out marginalised buyers. The measures will affect only a limited number of buyers but experts feel they could have a psychological effect on the market. There is also concern that tougher steps are in the pipeline

 

All prop stocks will sell down on Monday.! Feb 20, 2010

New property rules

Pay stamp duty if you 'flip' property; bank loans capped at 80%

By Joyce Teo

TOUGHER rules on bank loans and measures to rein in speculators take effect today, as the Government steps up moves to cool the sizzling property market. First, anyone who sells a property within a year of buying it will have to pay stamp duty of around 3 per cent. That means from today, if you buy a home and sell it at $500,000 within 12 months, you will have to fork out $9,600 in stamp duty. This is on top of the stamp duty you had to pay on the purchase. Second, lending institutions will now be allowed to lend only up to 80 per cent of the purchase price, not 90 per cent. Buyers will have to come up with at least 20 per cent themselves. Housing Board loans are not affected by this change in what is called the loan-to-value (LTV) limit. The sellers' stamp duty will hit short-term speculators, observers said, while the change in the bank loan limit is likely to weed out marginalised buyers. The measures will affect only a limited number of buyers but experts feel they could have a psychological effect on the market. There is also concern that tougher steps are in the pipeline

 

dealer0168,

I can't tell you now till the market opens on Monday as I need data to be feed as in to check the next direction of the movement on this stock. But if you want approx. price target for me, I will go for 1.18-1.20 and it also very much depends on the global market news direction together with the fin report by AllGreen...As I am not expert in FA, I can't tell u exactly what is the indication of the result but it should be good.. as seen in the TA movement influence it since past few days..

Anyway, rest assured that I will post it here or at my blog for the update on the price..

rgds,

star-trader

 

 

dealer0168      ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 22:38) Posted: Talking abt divi play, this one is ok only. Talking of PE ratio, its is quite high One good thing i see about this stock is, its NAV is higher than its current price. N its FA not bad also. Btw what is yr expected possible upside price ?? star-trader      ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 21:10) Posted: Well, the case is to see what is your appetite..some people will keep just for the sake of good DIV..some will just hit and run.. I will always use comparison on dividends whether it will drop to a point there my dividends can't cover the lose I keep on holding on the baby.. I have a stories for you all as below.. I have a fren of mine.. he hold Stock A at 0.575 and the current price at that moment was 0.635. Stock A's dividend is darn good until he was not willing to sell it and told me to keep it no matter what! I told him is it worth it if it drops back to below the price he bought? He said never mind. I have told him about the short term chart movement for this stock that it will stays at above 0.6. The next 1 month, it dropped to 0.515 and at the end of the day, he is still losing money although with the so called good dividend he got from holding the stocks.. So, from my perspective is...making a profit and comparing whether it is worth it to hold a stock for long is very important.. For me, i will look at what price to sell for AllGreen next week when the report is out.. :) SOBAYOR, star-trader

 

"I have told him about the short term chart movement for this stock that it will stays at above 0.6."

Sorry....Corrections..The above sentence should be corrected below:

"I have told him about the short term chart movement for this stock that it will not stay at above 0.6."

Anyway,Trueview, you are right...I agreed with you on the dividend thinggy..

rgds,

star-trader

 

star-trader      ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 21:10) Posted: Well, the case is to see what is your appetite..some people will keep just for the sake of good DIV..some will just hit and run.. I will always use comparison on dividends whether it will drop to a point there my dividends can't cover the lose I keep on holding on the baby.. I have a stories for you all as below.. I have a fren of mine.. he hold Stock A at 0.575 and the current price at that moment was 0.635. Stock A's dividend is darn good until he was not willing to sell it and told me to keep it no matter what! I told him is it worth it if it drops back to below the price he bought? He said never mind. I have told him about the short term chart movement for this stock that it will stays at above 0.6. The next 1 month, it dropped to 0.515 and at the end of the day, he is still losing money although with the so called good dividend he got from holding the stocks.. So, from my perspective is...making a profit and comparing whether it is worth it to hold a stock for long is very important.. For me, i will look at what price to sell for AllGreen next week when the report is out.. :) SOBAYOR, star-trader   dealer0168      ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 00:00) Posted: But its PE ratio quite high fr this one leh.......

 

Talking abt divi play, this one is ok only.

Talking of PE ratio, its is quite high

One good thing i see about this stock is, its NAV is higher than its current price. N its FA not bad also.

Btw what is yr expected possible upside price ??

star-trader      ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 21:10) Posted: Well, the case is to see what is your appetite..some people will keep just for the sake of good DIV..some will just hit and run.. I will always use comparison on dividends whether it will drop to a point there my dividends can't cover the lose I keep on holding on the baby.. I have a stories for you all as below.. I have a fren of mine.. he hold Stock A at 0.575 and the current price at that moment was 0.635. Stock A's dividend is darn good until he was not willing to sell it and told me to keep it no matter what! I told him is it worth it if it drops back to below the price he bought? He said never mind. I have told him about the short term chart movement for this stock that it will stays at above 0.6. The next 1 month, it dropped to 0.515 and at the end of the day, he is still losing money although with the so called good dividend he got from holding the stocks.. So, from my perspective is...making a profit and comparing whether it is worth it to hold a stock for long is very important.. For me, i will look at what price to sell for AllGreen next week when the report is out.. :) SOBAYOR, star-trader   dealer0168      ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 00:00) Posted: But its PE ratio quite high fr this one leh.......

 

   u are right..dont get hook bec.of the div..yield..at present uncertain market situation we mst treat it going to IR without paying $100....dont react too early when wat we so call analyst or broking house recommendation...trade with care friend...we are siting on the casino table....

 

Well, the case is to see what is your appetite..some people will keep just for the sake of good DIV..some will just hit and run..

I will always use comparison on dividends whether it will drop to a point there my dividends can't cover the lose I keep on holding on the baby.. I have a stories for you all as below..

I have a fren of mine.. he hold Stock A at 0.575 and the current price at that moment was 0.635. Stock A's dividend is darn good until he was not willing to sell it and told me to keep it no matter what! I told him is it worth it if it drops back to below the price he bought? He said never mind. I have told him about the short term chart movement for this stock that it will stays at above 0.6. The next 1 month, it dropped to 0.515 and at the end of the day, he is still losing money although with the so called good dividend he got from holding the stocks..

So, from my perspective is...making a profit and comparing whether it is worth it to hold a stock for long is very important.. For me, i will look at what price to sell for AllGreen next week when the report is out.. :)

SOBAYOR,

star-trader

 

dealer0168      ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 00:00) Posted: But its PE ratio quite high fr this one leh........ Andrew      ( Date: 18-Feb-2010 23:52) Posted: I am vested on this.  But there is a MA crossover recently. I am expecting a good DIV this year from AG.......

 

 

Sorry...correction.....Q3 profit up 126% and 9M profit up 70%........so this FY09 PE should be 15~16.....

 

Andrew      ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 00:10) Posted: You are say 27 right ??  This is the last reporting year PE.  For 9M profit up 96%, the PE should drop by about half to 14~15 perhaps........ They are announcing FY result next week......   dealer0168      ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 00:00) Posted: But its PE ratio quite high fr this one leh.......