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Not possible to go under $2 at all....not even $2.50....catch now as DBS just issue target price yesterday of over $4 
Hi raymondyap,
The fair value for Swiber now would be in the range of about $2.00 to $2.15, IMHO. I would personally feel that buying below $2 would give adequate margin of safety, and I am waiting for the price to dip to such levels before I consider adding to my position. As I did mention before, the risks for Swiber are execution and their ability to penetrate new markets and manage their cash flows. No doubt they are a rapidly growing company but if they do not manage cash well, it could turn out to be a disaster.
I think the fall in oil prices would not dampen Swiber's prospects much as the demand for oil is still very strong and will continue to be so. Prices are unlikely to stay "low" for long and should hover above US$60 for quite some time I think.
With the recent volatility in the market due to Mr. Market's mood swings, I believe there could be another chance waiting to accumulate more of Swiber. I have already added to my position for Pacific Andes.
Good luck !
The fair value for Swiber now would be in the range of about $2.00 to $2.15, IMHO. I would personally feel that buying below $2 would give adequate margin of safety, and I am waiting for the price to dip to such levels before I consider adding to my position. As I did mention before, the risks for Swiber are execution and their ability to penetrate new markets and manage their cash flows. No doubt they are a rapidly growing company but if they do not manage cash well, it could turn out to be a disaster.
I think the fall in oil prices would not dampen Swiber's prospects much as the demand for oil is still very strong and will continue to be so. Prices are unlikely to stay "low" for long and should hover above US$60 for quite some time I think.
With the recent volatility in the market due to Mr. Market's mood swings, I believe there could be another chance waiting to accumulate more of Swiber. I have already added to my position for Pacific Andes.
Good luck !
Hi Musicwhiz5,
I follow your blog closely and would like to comend you for your objective insights about Swiber. What in your opinion is a fair value for Swiber now and have you increased your portfolio with Swiber in view of the current market volality? Do you think the fall in oil prices will have any major impact on Swiber's business prospects?
I personally still think it is too early to bargain hunt.....
Dear all, I have written about Swiber's inaugural bond issue on my blog. Kindly pay a visit and feel free to comment should you choose to do so. Thanks !
Weird that no one wants to buy when shares are on "Great Singapore Sale"....as if the company had changed so much from yesterday till today. Hmmm....
The fundamentals of stock investing is buy low , sell high. But when prices are low, everyone panics and dare not buy. When prices are high, everyone jumps on the bandwagon and buy.
Swiber is strong company with good growth and a strong management team. It is time to buy and keep for the long term.
Blessed the BBs and syndicates for squeezing the short sellers. Is making money that easy by short selling, then those habitual short sellers must be tamed by the invisible hands of those BBs and syndicates.? Moving north owing to short covering. Retail investors please please don't panic, coz' u're owing a potential blue chip company (fair value is more than $3.50) at a very low price
Why dump Swiber shares when based on fundamentals (confirmed biz and new biz likely to be secured)according to DBS-Vickers research,.its TP will be more than its previous high of $3.50? Buy them now before rebound occurs!!
Shareholders of Swiber shd not dump their shares coz' it's cash rich and need not raise any fund by lending from any bank (i.e. not affected by any subprime woes). By dumping their own shares, they are playing into the hands of the short sellers and funds which want to pick more of the shares on the cheap. Three cheers to those who don't dump shares blindly coz' u won't know when the rebound will occur.
Dear all,
I will be posting a review of Swiber's 2Q and 1H 2007 financial results on my blog this evening. Kindly check back later for it.
Since I do not operate on the principles of TA, I would not advise anyone to try "timing" the market. Buy when you think the company offers good value relative to its future earnings, and always remember you are owning a piece of the business when you buy the company's shares.
Cheers.....
Tks Singaporeregal for your "soothing" insight. There shd be more caring SJ participants like you rather than those who predict as if "Doomsday" is to fall upon us soon. They may miss the boat when the turnaround starts coz' they feel that every rebound is just a technical rebound.
From its TA charts, it did dip a little some days back when the subprime problem came up. But it has been holding steady for the last few days.
May not exactly be e next Ezra but agree that Swider is a very good stock, achieved over 600% increase in net profit, simply superb....shld not be a problem going over $4 when markets calm down
Buy the few shares at low prices and see them move north soon to EZRA price levels soon.. Swiber is NOT affected by any subprime woes
Swiber has lots of confirmed biz with more to come. It is cash rich and is unlikely to need to raise any loan from any bank. The BBs and funds are very intelligent and have been moping up the shares of "panicky" or " irrational" shareholders . Three cheers to those intelligent people.